Market data and signals: Friday, October 30, 2026
Supporting data for the 2026-10-30 market moves page.
Macro drivers
Fed funds rate (effective)3.88%0.00 pp over 1 month2026-10-30 · Alpha Vantage
CPI inflation (year over year)3.7%+0.3 pp over 1 monthSep 2026 · Alpha Vantage
Unemployment rate4.2%+0.1 pp over 1 monthSep 2026 · Alpha Vantage
Nonfarm payrolls159,238k+333k over 1 monthSep 2026 · Alpha Vantage
Retail sales (year over year)6.7%+1.6 pp over 1 monthSep 2026 · Alpha Vantage
Real GDP growth (annualized, quarter over quarter)4.9%−7.8 pp over 1 quarterQ3 2026 · Alpha Vantage
Unemployed (level)7,109k+78k over 1 monthSep 2026 · BLS
10Y real yield (TIPS)2.60%−0.33 pp over 1 month2026-10-30 · US Treasury
10Y breakeven (nominal minus real)2.34%−0.02 pp over 1 month2026-10-30 · US Treasury
WTI crude spot$107.56+10.7% over 1 month2026-10-30 · Alpha Vantage
30Y mortgage rate7.24%+0.21 pp over 1 month2026-10-29 · Freddie Mac
Prediction-market odds
Day delta
- Big moves on the day Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): −3.47%; Tech (XLK): −4.89%; Semiconductors (SMH): −6.98%; Software (IGV): −3.41%; Gold (spot): −3.31%; Silver (spot): −5.39%; Brent crude (spot): +4.22%; VIX (Cboe): +12.91%
- Drawdown shifts Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): 5y drawdown moved from −5.8% to −9.1% (−3.3 pp); Tech (XLK): 5y drawdown moved from −6.6% to −11.1% (−4.5 pp); Semiconductors (SMH): 5y drawdown moved from −16.0% to −21.9% (−5.9 pp); Software (IGV): 5y drawdown moved from −8.3% to −11.4% (−3.1 pp); Brent crude (spot): 5y drawdown moved from −16.6% to −13.1% (+3.5 pp); VIX (Cboe): 5y drawdown moved from −67.1% to −62.9% (+4.2 pp)
- New 5-year highs Dividend (SCHD) at 35.78; Health care (XLV) at 184.87; Energy (XLE) at 70.02; T-bill ETF (SGOV) at 100.73
Signals
| Pair | State | 2D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI leaders basket vs S&P 500 (SPY) | emerging | −3.3 pp | −3.1 pp | −7.9 pp | −1.0 pp | −9.4 pp |
| Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY) | none | −5.8 pp | −0.3 pp | −13.3 pp | −5.2 pp | −2.6 pp |
| Tech (XLK) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) | trend | −8.7 pp | −4.2 pp | −18.6 pp | −3.3 pp | +3.1 pp |
| Cyclicals (XLY, XLF, XLI, XLB) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) | none | −2.2 pp | −0.3 pp | −5.2 pp | −5.8 pp | −8.0 pp |
| Equal-weight (RSP) vs cap-weight S&P 500 (SPY) | emerging | +2.6 pp | +1.4 pp | +5.9 pp | −0.4 pp | +2.4 pp |
| Small caps (IWM) vs S&P 500 (SPY) | reversal, turned 12 sessions ago | +1.5 pp | +1.9 pp | +1.4 pp | −6.4 pp | −4.7 pp |
| Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF) | trend | +4.4 pp | +2.1 pp | +10.4 pp | +3.3 pp | +13.8 pp |
| S&P 500 (SPY) vs developed ex-US (EFA) | reversal, turned 14 sessions ago | −1.8 pp | −1.3 pp | −0.4 pp | +4.8 pp | +3.1 pp |
| Emerging (EEM) vs S&P 500 (SPY) | trend | −1.8 pp | −1.0 pp | −7.7 pp | −6.2 pp | −9.8 pp |
| High yield (HYG) vs IG corporate (LQD) | none | −0.4 pp | +0.1 pp | −1.8 pp | −0.4 pp | +1.1 pp |
| Regional banks (KRE) vs S&P 500 (SPY) | reversal, turned 17 sessions ago | +2.0 pp | −0.1 pp | +4.6 pp | −6.7 pp | −1.4 pp |
| Copper (CPER) vs gold (spot) | trend | +1.1 pp | +2.8 pp | +4.8 pp | +4.7 pp | +23.0 pp |
| Energy stocks (XLE) vs WTI crude | none | +1.1 pp | +3.0 pp | +3.2 pp | −6.8 pp | +19.9 pp |
- Dollar (UUP ETF), % change: 1D −0.1%; 1W +0.1%; 1M +0.8%; 3M +3.1%
- EM FX stress: average % change of USD against BRL, INR, KRW, MXN, ZAR (up = EM currencies weaker): 1D +0.1%; 1W +2.3%; 1M +1.6%; 3M +2.0%
- 10Y real yield (Treasury), change in bp: 1D −3 bp; 1W −6 bp; 1M −33 bp; 3M +19 bp
- Sector breadth: 1D 6 of 11 sector ETFs up (55%); 1W 9 of 11 sector ETFs up (82%); 1M 9 of 11 sector ETFs up (82%)
- Unusual volume: Value (IWD) 2.46 times its 60-day average, Staples (XLP) 1.55 times its 60-day average, Communication (XLC) 1.51 times its 60-day average, Growth (IWF) 1.50 times its 60-day average, Health care (XLV) 1.50 times its 60-day average. Volume proxies, not fund-flow data: ETF dollar volume (close x shares traded) over the last 5 sessions against the 60 sessions before.
Sources and data dates
- Alpha Vantage (adjusted daily closes, spot metals and oil, FX, crypto, macro): S&P 500 (SPY), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Dividend (SCHD), Dow (DIA ETF), Russell 2000 (IWM ETF), Tech (XLK), Health care (XLV), Financials (XLF) and 47 more. Latest data 2026-10-30
- US Treasury daily par yield curve: US 3M bill, US 2Y, US 10Y, US 20Y, US 30Y, 2s10s spread. Latest data 2026-10-30
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey: 30Y mortgage (weekly), 30Y mortgage rate. Latest data 2026-10-29
- Cboe VIX daily history: VIX (Cboe). Latest data 2026-10-30
- New York Fed SOFR: SOFR (NY Fed). Latest data 2026-10-30
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI, unemployment, payrolls): Unemployed (level). Latest data 2026-09-01
- US Treasury daily real yield curve: 10Y real yield (TIPS), 10Y breakeven (nominal minus real). Latest data 2026-10-30
Proxies
- Dow (DIA ETF): DIA ETF stands in for the Dow index
- Russell 2000 (IWM ETF): IWM ETF stands in for the Russell 2000 index
- Copper (CPER ETF): CPER ETF stands in for copper futures
- Dollar (UUP ETF): UUP ETF stands in for the dollar index (DXY)
Not investment advice. MarketMoves describes past market data and reported news for general information. Figures can be delayed or wrong; check the original source before relying on them.