Market data and signals: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Supporting data for the 2026-11-03 market moves page.
Macro drivers
Fed funds rate (effective)3.88%0.00 pp over 1 month2026-11-03 · Alpha Vantage
CPI inflation (year over year)3.7%+0.3 pp over 1 monthSep 2026 · Alpha Vantage
Unemployment rate4.2%+0.1 pp over 1 monthSep 2026 · Alpha Vantage
Nonfarm payrolls159,238k+333k over 1 monthSep 2026 · Alpha Vantage
Retail sales (year over year)6.7%+1.6 pp over 1 monthSep 2026 · Alpha Vantage
Real GDP growth (annualized, quarter over quarter)4.9%−7.8 pp over 1 quarterQ3 2026 · Alpha Vantage
Unemployed (level)7,109k+78k over 1 monthSep 2026 · BLS
10Y real yield (TIPS)2.65%−0.27 pp over 1 month2026-11-03 · US Treasury
10Y breakeven (nominal minus real)2.30%−0.06 pp over 1 month2026-11-03 · US Treasury
WTI crude spot$99.64+1.8% over 1 month2026-11-03 · Alpha Vantage
30Y mortgage rate7.24%+0.21 pp over 1 month2026-10-29 · Freddie Mac
Prediction-market odds
Day delta
- New 5-year highs T-bill ETF (SGOV) at 100.44
Signals
| Pair | State | 2D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI leaders basket vs S&P 500 (SPY) | reversal, turned 1 sessions ago | +1.5 pp | −1.9 pp | −6.5 pp | −6.2 pp | −8.1 pp |
| Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY) | trend | −0.6 pp | −5.1 pp | −15.8 pp | −4.7 pp | −3.5 pp |
| Tech (XLK) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) | trend | −1.3 pp | −8.9 pp | −21.7 pp | −6.7 pp | −0.5 pp |
| Cyclicals (XLY, XLF, XLI, XLB) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) | reversal, turned 2 sessions ago | +1.6 pp | −0.1 pp | −4.6 pp | −6.8 pp | −6.6 pp |
| Equal-weight (RSP) vs cap-weight S&P 500 (SPY) | emerging | +0.6 pp | +2.8 pp | +6.5 pp | +1.6 pp | +3.7 pp |
| Small caps (IWM) vs S&P 500 (SPY) | reversal, turned 14 sessions ago | +0.3 pp | +1.8 pp | +1.4 pp | −5.1 pp | −4.5 pp |
| Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF) | trend | +0.1 pp | +4.0 pp | +11.3 pp | +4.8 pp | +14.8 pp |
| S&P 500 (SPY) vs developed ex-US (EFA) | emerging | +0.1 pp | −1.5 pp | −1.1 pp | +2.6 pp | +2.7 pp |
| Emerging (EEM) vs S&P 500 (SPY) | none | +0.3 pp | −0.3 pp | −7.7 pp | −4.8 pp | −9.4 pp |
| High yield (HYG) vs IG corporate (LQD) | none | +0.1 pp | −0.1 pp | −1.6 pp | −0.4 pp | +1.2 pp |
| Regional banks (KRE) vs S&P 500 (SPY) | none | +1.4 pp | +2.4 pp | +5.0 pp | −4.7 pp | +0.4 pp |
| Copper (CPER) vs gold (spot) | emerging | −2.9 pp | −0.8 pp | +2.3 pp | 0.0 pp | +20.9 pp |
| Energy stocks (XLE) vs WTI crude | none | +2.6 pp | +1.4 pp | +4.4 pp | −7.5 pp | +20.3 pp |
- Dollar (UUP ETF), % change: 1D +0.2%; 1W −0.4%; 1M +0.4%; 3M +3.0%
- EM FX stress: average % change of USD against BRL, INR, KRW, MXN, ZAR (up = EM currencies weaker): 1D +0.4%; 1W +0.9%; 1M +1.5%; 3M +2.1%
- 10Y real yield (Treasury), change in bp: 1D +3 bp; 1W +1 bp; 1M −27 bp; 3M +22 bp
- Sector breadth: 1D 4 of 11 sector ETFs up (36%); 1W 8 of 11 sector ETFs up (73%); 1M 9 of 11 sector ETFs up (82%)
- Unusual volume: Staples (XLP) 1.96 times its 60-day average, Health care (XLV) 1.77 times its 60-day average, Communication (XLC) 1.66 times its 60-day average, Tech (XLK) 1.56 times its 60-day average, Growth (IWF) 1.52 times its 60-day average. Volume proxies, not fund-flow data: ETF dollar volume (close x shares traded) over the last 5 sessions against the 60 sessions before.
Sources and data dates
- Alpha Vantage (adjusted daily closes, spot metals and oil, FX, crypto, macro): S&P 500 (SPY), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Dividend (SCHD), Dow (DIA ETF), Russell 2000 (IWM ETF), Tech (XLK), Health care (XLV), Financials (XLF) and 47 more. Latest data 2026-11-03
- US Treasury daily par yield curve: US 3M bill, US 2Y, US 10Y, US 20Y, US 30Y, 2s10s spread. Latest data 2026-11-03
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey: 30Y mortgage (weekly), 30Y mortgage rate. Latest data 2026-10-29
- Cboe VIX daily history: VIX (Cboe). Latest data 2026-11-03
- New York Fed SOFR: SOFR (NY Fed). Latest data 2026-11-03
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI, unemployment, payrolls): Unemployed (level). Latest data 2026-09-01
- US Treasury daily real yield curve: 10Y real yield (TIPS), 10Y breakeven (nominal minus real). Latest data 2026-11-03
Proxies
- Dow (DIA ETF): DIA ETF stands in for the Dow index
- Russell 2000 (IWM ETF): IWM ETF stands in for the Russell 2000 index
- Copper (CPER ETF): CPER ETF stands in for copper futures
- Dollar (UUP ETF): UUP ETF stands in for the dollar index (DXY)
Not investment advice. MarketMoves describes past market data and reported news for general information. Figures can be delayed or wrong; check the original source before relying on them.