Market data and signals: Wednesday, November 4, 2026

Macro drivers

Prediction-market odds

Market-implied probabilities as published by the venue, shown as plain data. They are not a MarketMoves view.

• Fed Decision in December? 25 bps increase 77.5% 1D change n/a Polymarket
• Fed Decision in December? No change 21.5% 1D change n/a Polymarket
• Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 77.5% 1D change +2.0 pp Polymarket
• How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? 0 (0 bps) 97.8% 1D change +1.0 pp Polymarket
• Fed Decision in January? No change 77.5% 1D change +5.0 pp Polymarket
• Fed Decision in January? 25 bps increase 18.5% 1D change −6.0 pp Polymarket
• Fed Decision in March? No change 47.5% 1D change n/a Polymarket
• Fed Decision in March? 25 bps increase 47.5% 1D change −1.0 pp Polymarket

Day delta

• New 5-year highs Dividend (SCHD) at 36.21; Health care (XLV) at 189.66; Financials (XLF) at 59.20; Staples (XLP) at 91.94; Materials (XLB) at 53.90; Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) at 223.33; Value (IWD) at 265.30; T-bill ETF (SGOV) at 100.45
• Big moves on the day Dow (DIA ETF): +3.10%; Health care (XLV): +3.06%; Financials (XLF): +3.51%; Energy (XLE): −4.74%; Staples (XLP): +3.36%; Discretionary (XLY): +4.26%; Real estate (XLRE): +3.32%; Communication (XLC): +3.47%; China large-cap (FXI): +4.22%; Germany (EWG): +3.42%; Bitcoin (USD): +4.00%; Ethereum (USD): +6.63%; Gold (GLD ETF): +3.68%; Silver (SLV ETF): +5.17%; Managed futures (CTA): −5.71%; VIX (Cboe): −20.26%; Commodities (DBC): −3.55%
• Drawdown shifts Energy (XLE): 5y drawdown moved from −4.8% to −9.3% (−4.5 pp); Discretionary (XLY): 5y drawdown moved from −5.2% to −1.2% (+4.0 pp); Real estate (XLRE): 5y drawdown moved from −4.3% to −1.1% (+3.2 pp); China large-cap (FXI): 5y drawdown moved from −19.0% to −15.6% (+3.4 pp); Germany (EWG): 5y drawdown moved from −5.7% to −2.4% (+3.3 pp); Ethereum (USD): 5y drawdown moved from −53.0% to −49.9% (+3.1 pp); VIX (Cboe): 5y drawdown moved from −60.2% to −68.3% (−8.1 pp); Commodities (DBC): 5y drawdown moved from −4.9% to −8.2% (−3.3 pp)
• Odds moves Fed Decision in January? (No change): 72.5% to 77.5% (+5.0 pp); Fed Decision in January? (25 bps increase): 24.5% to 18.5% (−6.0 pp)

Fixed thresholds: 1D moves beyond 3% (prices) or 10 bp (yields), new 5-year highs, 5y drawdown shifts over 3 pp, odds moves of 5 pp or more.

Signals

Relative performance in percentage points (first leg minus second). States use fixed thresholds: trend, reversal, emerging.

• Dollar (UUP ETF), % change: 1D −0.4%; 2D −0.2%; 1W −0.6%; 1M 0.0%; 3M +2.6%; 6M +5.2%; 1Y +5.5%
• EM FX stress: average % change of USD against BRL, INR, KRW, MXN, ZAR (up = EM currencies weaker): 1D −0.7%; 2D −0.2%; 1W 0.0%; 1M +0.8%; 3M +1.5%; 6M +0.9%; 1Y −1.2%
• 10Y real yield (Treasury), change in bp: 1D −1 bp; 2D +2 bp; 1W −3 bp; 1M −28 bp; 3M +24 bp; 6M +69 bp; 1Y +83 bp
• 10Y breakeven (nominal minus real yield), change in bp: 1D −4 bp; 2D −3 bp; 1W −12 bp; 1M −10 bp; 3M +3 bp; 6M −24 bp; 1Y −3 bp
• Sector breadth: 1D 8 of 11 sector ETFs up (73%); 1W 9 of 11 sector ETFs up (82%); 1M 8 of 11 sector ETFs up (73%)
• Unusual volume: Staples (XLP) 2.18 times its 60-day average, Health care (XLV) 2.02 times its 60-day average, Discretionary (XLY) 1.91 times its 60-day average, Communication (XLC) 1.78 times its 60-day average, Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) 1.75 times its 60-day average. Volume proxies, not fund-flow data: ETF dollar volume (close x shares traded) over the last 5 sessions against the 60 sessions before.

Sources and data dates

• Alpha Vantage (adjusted daily closes, spot metals and oil, FX, crypto, macro): S&P 500 (SPY), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Dividend (SCHD), Dow (DIA ETF), Russell 2000 (IWM ETF), Tech (XLK), Health care (XLV), Financials (XLF) and 47 more. Latest data 2026-11-04
• US Treasury daily par yield curve: US 3M bill, US 2Y, US 10Y, US 20Y, US 30Y, 2s10s spread. Latest data 2026-11-04
• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey: 30Y mortgage (weekly), 30Y mortgage rate. Latest data 2026-10-29
• Cboe VIX daily history: VIX (Cboe). Latest data 2026-11-04
• New York Fed SOFR: SOFR (NY Fed). Latest data 2026-11-03
• US Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI, unemployment, payrolls): Unemployed (level). Latest data 2026-09-01
• US Treasury daily real yield curve: 10Y real yield (TIPS), 10Y breakeven (nominal minus real). Latest data 2026-11-04
• Polymarket public market data: Odds

Proxies

• Dow (DIA ETF): DIA ETF stands in for the Dow index
• Russell 2000 (IWM ETF): IWM ETF stands in for the Russell 2000 index
• Gold (GLD ETF): GLD ETF stands in for spot gold
• Silver (SLV ETF): SLV ETF stands in for spot silver
• Copper (CPER ETF): CPER ETF stands in for copper futures
• Dollar (UUP ETF): UUP ETF stands in for the dollar index (DXY)

Crypto and prediction-market figures are shown as plain data. Horizon and drawdown rules: methodology.