Market moves: Wednesday, November 4, 2026
Close of Wednesday, November 4, 2026: S&P 500 (SPY) +1.65%; US 10Y 4.90% (−5 bp on the day); VIX (Cboe) 16.61 (−20.26% on the day); Dollar (UUP ETF) −0.38%; Gold (spot) −0.25%; Bitcoin (USD) +4.00%. Largest 1D move in the table: VIX (Cboe) −20.26%.
The written analysis on this day is a setup sample, grounded in this page's data, headlines and researched articles.
Underlying forces
The regime (fitted on the 1-year, 6-month and 3-month moves; 1Y explains 56%; 6M explains 55%; 3M explains 52%)
- Oil supply shock: mild regime; since 2026-11-04.
- Hawkish Fed repricing: mild regime; since 2026-11-04.
1 month (the forces explain 31% of the pattern; 15 of 29 moves were significant)
- AI capex / profitability doubts: mild new short-term force; since 2026-11-04.
- Oil supply shock: regime force fading (not visible over 1 month).
- Hawkish Fed repricing: regime force fading (not visible over 1 month).
1 week (the forces explain 47% of the pattern; 13 of 29 moves were significant)
- AI capex / profitability doubts: moderate new short-term force; since 2026-11-04.
- Oil supply shock: regime force fading (not visible over 1 week).
- Hawkish Fed repricing: regime force fading (not visible over 1 week).
Last 2 sessions (the forces explain 0% of the pattern; 15 of 30 moves were significant)
- Oil supply shock: regime force fading (not visible over last 2 sessions).
- Hawkish Fed repricing: regime force fading (not visible over last 2 sessions).
- No shared force stands out; the moves are mostly asset-specific.
Widely cited and confirmed by the data
- Iran war and the oil price shock (cited in 2026-03, 2026-04, 2026-06): confirmed as Oil supply shock over 1Y, 3M.
- Fed rate-hike fears (cited in 2026-04, 2026-08, 2026-09 and more): confirmed as Hawkish Fed repricing over 1Y, 6M.
- AI fears around tech earnings (cited in 2026-07): confirmed as AI capex / profitability doubts over 6M, 3M.
Status quo board
- US stocks: The market favours value and dividend payers over growth: SCHD is up 41.7% over 1Y against 12.3% for QQQ. intact
- Sectors: Defensive sectors are favoured over tech: health care and staples sit at 5-year highs while tech (XLK) trails defensives by 24.3 pp over 1M. intact
- AI and style themes: Semiconductors lead as the main winners of the AI build-out: semis beat the market by 28.6 pp over 1Y. new status quo. Challenger: Semis have lost their leadership to value and the average stock: they trail the market by 19.7 pp over 1M and 12.1 pp over 3M.
- AI leaders and QQQ: The AI platform leaders lag the market: the basket trails by 8.2 pp over 6M and 6.3 pp over 1M. challenged. Challenger: The platforms recovered with the election, beating the market by 2.3 pp over 2D as policy risk landed on AI infrastructure instead.
- Foreign markets: Emerging markets lag the US: EEM trails the S&P 500 by 8.6 pp over 1M and 10.7 pp over 6M. intact
- Crypto: Crypto is out of favour: bitcoin is 35.5% below its 5-year high and down 20.7% over 1Y. intact
- Commodities: Oil is priced for a war-driven supply shock: WTI spot is up 61.3% over 1Y. shifting. Challenger: Crude is losing its war premium: Brent spot fell 13.1% over the week (as of 2026-11-03).
- Rates: Higher for longer: the market prices more Fed increases, with the 2Y up 100 bp over 1Y and Polymarket odds of 77.5% for another 2026 increase. challenged. Challenger: Long yields are falling: the 10Y is down 38 bp over 1M and 5 bp on the day.
- Credit: Credit is calm: high yield moves in line with IG and regional banks keep pace with the market. intact
- Dollar and volatility: The dollar is firm on Fed rate-increase pricing: UUP is up 5.5% over 1Y. intact
Asset table
| Asset | Last | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Us Equity status quo intact | ||||||||
| S&P 500 (SPY) | 766.81 | +1.65% | −0.7% | −0.4% | −0.3% | +7.3% | +14.8% | −1.6% |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | 691.95 | +0.97% | −4.6% | −7.7% | −4.3% | +3.1% | +12.3% | −8.9% |
| Dividend (SCHD)new 5y high | 36.21 | +1.86% | +3.2% | +10.7% | +7.8% | +16.7% | +41.7% | 0.0% |
| Dow (DIA ETF) | 533.11 | +3.10% | +1.6% | +4.3% | −1.0% | +9.7% | +14.9% | −1.5% |
| Russell 2000 (IWM ETF) | 284.02 | +1.51% | +1.0% | +0.9% | −5.6% | +2.7% | +19.0% | −6.7% |
| Sectors status quo intact | ||||||||
| Tech (XLK) | 176.50 | −0.01% | −7.6% | −11.7% | −5.5% | +9.2% | +20.7% | −12.6% |
| Health care (XLV)new 5y high | 189.66 | +3.06% | +5.5% | +14.1% | +17.4% | +32.1% | +32.9% | 0.0% |
| Financials (XLF)new 5y high | 59.20 | +3.51% | +5.5% | +10.7% | +2.6% | +15.6% | +14.7% | 0.0% |
| Energy (XLE) | 63.52 | −4.74% | −7.2% | +1.1% | +9.2% | +8.4% | +49.8% | −9.3% |
| Staples (XLP)new 5y high | 91.94 | +3.36% | +5.9% | +14.2% | +8.4% | +11.6% | +24.3% | 0.0% |
| Discretionary (XLY) | 122.33 | +4.26% | +6.1% | +11.2% | +3.6% | +4.4% | +3.6% | −1.2% |
| Utilities (XLU) | 43.61 | +0.44% | +2.6% | +9.5% | −0.4% | −4.7% | +1.0% | −6.7% |
| Materials (XLB)new 5y high | 53.90 | +2.49% | +3.9% | +10.3% | +4.1% | +7.3% | +29.5% | 0.0% |
| Real estate (XLRE) | 45.12 | +3.32% | +7.1% | +10.6% | +0.7% | +4.1% | +14.1% | −1.1% |
| Communication (XLC) | 104.96 | +3.47% | +1.8% | −4.9% | −6.0% | −9.1% | −5.8% | −11.8% |
| Industrials (XLI) | 169.46 | −1.09% | +0.6% | −0.3% | −8.8% | −0.4% | +12.3% | −8.9% |
| Themes status quo new status quo | ||||||||
| Semiconductors (SMH) | 504.27 | −2.75% | −11.2% | −20.0% | −12.4% | −0.5% | +43.4% | −24.6% |
| Software (IGV) | 103.56 | +0.88% | −7.5% | −4.5% | +1.5% | +17.1% | −7.5% | −12.1% |
| AI leaders basket (6 stocks, equal weight) | 7,835.04 | +2.04% | −2.3% | −6.6% | −5.8% | −0.8% | +6.7% | −8.9% |
| Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP)new 5y high | 223.33 | +1.86% | +2.7% | +6.5% | +1.8% | +11.6% | +21.8% | 0.0% |
| Value (IWD)new 5y high | 265.30 | +2.60% | +2.5% | +6.4% | +3.8% | +16.3% | +32.8% | 0.0% |
| Growth (IWF) | 117.90 | +0.39% | −4.2% | −7.2% | −5.1% | −1.4% | −1.3% | −8.7% |
| Foreign status quo intact | ||||||||
| Developed ex-US (EFA) | 105.72 | +2.56% | +2.0% | +1.7% | −1.5% | +6.6% | +16.9% | −2.8% |
| Developed (VEA) | 70.82 | +2.09% | +0.7% | −0.4% | −1.7% | +5.1% | +20.5% | −3.8% |
| Emerging (EEM) | 61.62 | +0.85% | −3.0% | −8.9% | −6.6% | −3.4% | +15.0% | −13.5% |
| Emerging (VWO) | 56.28 | +1.70% | −1.3% | −5.5% | −6.1% | −3.9% | +5.9% | −8.2% |
| Japan (EWJ) | 93.86 | +1.37% | −1.2% | −5.1% | −0.8% | +7.1% | +18.2% | −5.5% |
| China large-cap (FXI) | 34.59 | +4.22% | +6.6% | +4.2% | −4.7% | −4.7% | −10.5% | −15.6% |
| Germany (EWG) | 43.50 | +3.42% | +4.1% | +5.3% | −0.8% | +7.0% | +10.0% | −2.4% |
| Crypto status quo intact | ||||||||
| Bitcoin (USD) | 80,428 | +4.00% | −1.0% | −7.0% | +25.6% | +0.7% | −20.7% | −35.5% |
| Ethereum (USD) | 2,422.27 | +6.63% | +2.8% | −11.2% | +29.6% | +3.2% | −26.3% | −49.9% |
| Commodity status quo shifting | ||||||||
| Gold (spot)as of 2026-11-03 | 3,938.26 | −0.25% | −3.1% | −4.9% | −2.8% | −14.6% | −1.5% | −28.6% |
| Silver (spot)as of 2026-11-03 | 49.88 | −1.47% | −8.4% | −17.4% | −14.4% | −34.1% | +4.0% | −57.7% |
| WTI crude (spot)as of 2026-11-03 | 99.64 | −0.42% | −3.6% | +1.8% | +21.6% | −5.4% | +61.3% | −19.4% |
| Brent crude (spot)as of 2026-11-03 | 107.03 | −0.34% | −13.1% | −21.0% | +20.4% | −9.5% | +62.7% | −22.6% |
| Copper (CPER ETF) | 38.59 | +0.21% | −4.3% | −2.4% | −3.9% | +8.5% | +26.4% | −6.9% |
| Rates status quo challenged | ||||||||
| US 3M bill | 4.21% | 0 bp | +3 bp | +2 bp | +32 bp | +51 bp | +25 bp | – |
| US 2Y | 4.58% | −3 bp | −9 bp | −25 bp | +38 bp | +63 bp | +100 bp | – |
| US 10Y | 4.90% | −5 bp | −15 bp | −38 bp | +27 bp | +45 bp | +80 bp | – |
| US 20Y | 5.30% | −5 bp | −11 bp | −37 bp | +12 bp | +29 bp | +65 bp | – |
| US 30Y | 5.28% | −4 bp | −9 bp | −35 bp | +10 bp | +26 bp | +61 bp | – |
| 2s10s spread | +32 bp | −2 bp | −6 bp | −13 bp | −11 bp | −18 bp | −20 bp | – |
| 30Y mortgage (weekly) | 7.24% | n/a | −8 bp | +21 bp | +66 bp | +101 bp | +105 bp | – |
| Credit status quo intact | ||||||||
| IG corporate (LQD) | 104.50 | +0.75% | +0.8% | +3.0% | −0.9% | −1.1% | −1.1% | −5.0% |
| High yield (HYG) | 77.52 | +0.70% | +0.4% | +1.3% | −1.1% | +0.1% | +2.6% | −1.5% |
| EM dollar debt (EMB) | 92.44 | +1.01% | +1.2% | +3.0% | −1.6% | −0.2% | +1.6% | −2.4% |
| Alts | ||||||||
| Managed futures (CTA) | 26.73 | −5.71% | −11.4% | −7.9% | +6.5% | −15.7% | +4.6% | n/a |
| FX / Vol status quo intact | ||||||||
| Dollar (UUP ETF) | 28.90 | −0.38% | −0.6% | 0.0% | +2.6% | +5.2% | +5.5% | −0.8% |
| USD/JPY | 158.42 | −0.15% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.8% | +3.1% | −3.3% |
| USD/MXN | 18.6089 | −1.13% | −0.1% | +2.6% | +7.9% | +6.3% | −0.3% | −15.0% |
| VIX (Cboe) | 16.61 | −20.26% | −1.8% | +8.5% | +0.7% | −9.2% | −12.6% | −68.3% |
| Stress | ||||||||
| TIPS (TIP) | 106.10 | 0.00% | 0.0% | +2.1% | −0.7% | −1.6% | −0.4% | −1.8% |
| Long zero-coupon (ZROZ) | 58.85 | +1.24% | +1.8% | +10.2% | +0.7% | −2.5% | −9.9% | −56.4% |
| T-bill ETF (SGOV)new 5y high | 100.45 | +0.01% | +0.1% | +0.3% | +1.0% | +1.9% | +3.7% | 0.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 31.29 | −3.55% | −7.4% | −3.8% | +10.5% | −0.1% | +41.2% | −8.2% |
| KRE/SPY ratio | 0.0967 | +0.06% | +3.5% | +5.1% | −3.9% | +1.3% | +10.5% | −40.2% |
| SOFR (NY Fed)as of 2026-11-03 | 3.97% | +2 bp | +2 bp | +9 bp | +32 bp | +33 bp | −16 bp | – |
Today (1D): The election result drove the day, but it split the AI trade
The election result left the main status quos in place (value and defensives over growth, calm credit) and challenged two: the AI platforms' lag, which reversed on relief, and the AI hardware lead, which policy coverage hit again.
The S&P 500 (SPY) rose 1.65% and the Dow proxy (DIA) 3.10%, while the VIX fell 20.26%. Coverage described a rebound on relief once the decisive result removed contested-election risk.
Inside the market the split ran through AI infrastructure. Semis (SMH) fell 2.75% and trailed the market by 4.4 pp, while the AI leaders basket rose 2.04% as megacap platforms recovered. Researched coverage tied the chip and power-producer losses to the prospect of congressional scrutiny of data centers.
Energy was the other loser: XLE fell 4.74% and commodities (DBC) 3.55%, which coverage linked to pressure to resolve the Iran war. The 10Y yield fell 5 bp to 4.90%. The gold and WTI spot prints are as of 2026-11-03.
Drivers
- Democrats swept Congress; coverage reported futures first fell on AI-regulation worries, then reversed as the certainty of the result sank in. Source: TradingNEWS (article), MarketWatch, 2026-11-05
- Power producers and data-center suppliers fell on a push for a Texas data-center moratorium and on congressional scrutiny. Source: Stocktwits (article), Stocktwits, 2026-11-04
- JPMorgan linked the sweep to affordability support and pressure to end the Iran war, consistent with discretionary (XLY) leading at +4.26%. Source: TradingView (article), MarketMoves data
- Treasury yields fell after the midterms. Source: CNBC, 2026-11-05, WSJ, 2026-11-05
This week (1W): A week-long move out of tech hardware into defensives and value
This week fading conviction in tech hardware drove a rotation into defensives and value, extending the defensive status quo while falling oil and yields made steady earners cheaper to hold.
Tech (XLK) fell 7.6% over the week while staples, health care and real estate gained 5.9%, 5.5% and 7.1%. Tech trailed defensives by 12.3 pp and value beat growth by 6.7 pp.
The 10Y yield fell 15 bp and the dollar slipped 0.6%, so the move came with easier financial conditions rather than a rate shock. Crude was the weak spot: Brent spot fell 13.1% over the week (as of 2026-11-03), matching coverage of a weekly oil crash.
Drivers
- Coverage reported a weekly oil crash that overwhelmed fresh Hormuz threats. Source: Investing.com, 2026-11-05
- A strong job-openings report and a firm private payrolls print kept the labor market in focus. Source: CNBC, 2026-11-03, CNBC, 2026-11-04
One month (1M): Waning conviction in AI hardware set the month
Over the month waning conviction in AI hardware overturned the year's chip leadership, with a pattern consistent with money moving from chips into defensives, value and the average stock.
Semis trailed the market by 19.7 pp and tech trailed defensives by 24.3 pp, while the equal-weight S&P 500 beat the cap-weighted index by 6.9 pp. The AI leaders basket fell 6.6% and trailed by 6.3 pp.
Rates argue against a rate story: the 10Y fell 38 bp and the real yield 28 bp, which in a rate-driven market favours long-duration growth, yet growth trailed value by 13.6 pp. That leaves sentiment toward AI spending, not discount rates, as the better fit.
Drivers
- Coverage of how AI demand is driving up borrowing. Source: CNBC, 2026-10-27
- Health care (XLV) rose 14.1% and staples (XLP) 14.2%. Source: MarketMoves data
- Emerging markets trailed the US by 8.6 pp as Asian chip markets weakened. Source: Emerging (EEM) vs S&P 500 (SPY), Investing.com, 2026-11-05
Three months (3M): A Fed turn toward rate increases pressured small caps and emerging markets
Over three months two shared forces stand out: the oil supply shock from the Iran war, which lifted crude and energy, and doubts about the payoff of AI spending, which pulled semis and the AI leaders behind the market.
The 2Y yield rose 38 bp and the 10Y 27 bp over three months, while the dollar gained 2.6%. Small caps trailed the S&P 500 by 5.3 pp and emerging markets by 6.3 pp, the usual casualties of tighter dollar funding.
The last month differs: yields have since fallen, small caps beat the market by 1.7 pp over the week, and the small-cap signal registers as a reversal that turned 15 sessions ago.
Drivers
- A CNBC survey reported that economists see rate increases coming, and the Treasury secretary said a further increase would not necessarily be a mistake. Source: CNBC, 2026-10-27, CNBC, 2026-10-28
- Polymarket odds priced 77.5% for another Fed rate increase in 2026. Source: MarketMoves data
Six months (6M): Rising yields rewarded value and steady earners
Over six months, rising yields were the driver, rewarding value and cash-rich defensives over growth and long-duration assets.
Value beat growth by 17.8 pp and health care rose 32.1%, while the long zero-coupon fund (ZROZ) fell 2.5% and gold 14.6%. A rising rate path weighs on long-duration growth and on assets without cash flow, which matches this pattern.
The AI leaders basket trailed the market by 8.2 pp over six months, so the hardware weakness of the last month extended an older lag in the AI trade rather than starting a new one.
Drivers
- CPI inflation ran at 3.7% year over year, up 0.3 pp on the month. Source: MarketMoves data
- Coverage treated the federal deficit and high Treasury yields as a growing economic concern. Source: CNBC, 2026-10-26
One year (1Y): Oil and the AI build-out set the year's leadership
Over the year, an oil supply shock and a Fed that markets see raising rates set the regime, lifting crude, yields and the dollar and rewarding value over growth.
WTI spot is up 61.3% over the year (as of 2026-11-03) and the 2Y yield 100 bp, the shape of an inflation-driven tightening cycle. Value beat growth by 34.1 pp and the dividend fund SCHD rose 41.7%.
Semis still lead the market by 28.6 pp over the year, while the AI leaders basket trails by 8.0 pp, so the year's AI gains sat in chips rather than the platforms. Bitcoin fell 20.7%.
Drivers
- Coverage traced how oil shocks shaped the election. Source: The Washington Post, 2026-11-05
- Energy (XLE) rose 49.8% over the year. Source: MarketMoves data
Cross-asset read: Relief with lower oil, yields and dollar together
Today's cross-asset pattern was election-driven relief: stocks rose while yields, oil, the dollar and volatility fell together, and the softer dollar eased emerging-market currencies.
The dollar fell 0.4% and the EM FX stress gauge fell 0.7%, with USD/MXN down 1.13% and EM dollar debt (EMB) up 1.01%. Gold's latest print is as of 2026-11-03, so its reaction is not in the table yet.
Polymarket odds priced 77.5% for a December rate increase and 77.5% for no change in January (+5.0 pp), so the rally came without any easing in the priced Fed path.
Drivers
- Coverage reported the dollar, oil and yields falling together after the midterms. Source: Reuters, 2026-11-05, TradingNEWS (article)
Credit and stress watch: Credit stayed calm because the shock was political, not financial
Credit is softening at the margin rather than breaking: high yield has trailed IG by 1.7 pp over the month, a move the shared forces don't explain, while regional banks kept pace with the market.
HYG rose 0.70% and LQD 0.75%, the VIX ended at 16.61 and SOFR printed 3.97% (as of 2026-11-03). The T-bill fund SGOV set a new 5-year high, as it does while it accrues interest.
Regional banks have beaten the market by 5.1 pp over the month even though the KRE/SPY ratio sits 40.2% below its 5-year high.
Drivers
- Managed futures (CTA) fell 5.71%, consistent with trend-following positions caught by the turn in oil and rates. Source: MarketMoves data
Not investment advice. MarketMoves describes past market data and reported news for general information. Figures can be delayed or wrong; check the original source before relying on them.