Brent crude (spot): the last 12 months

Brent crude is up 62.7% over 1Y but down 21.0% over the last month; its 90-day change is +19.4% after +69.1% at the end of September. The war premium unwound in early November on Iran ceasefire hopes. Status quo for commodities: shifting.

Status quo card: Brent crude (spot), shifting.

Month by month

Computed in code. Change: the calendar-month change (z against its own monthly history). 90-day: the trailing 90-day change at the month-end. Rank: its place among that month's biggest moves. Causes: the surviving monthly causes acting on it (a force's loading on this asset times the month's fitted strength, in standard deviations). ETF holdings use current weights (an approximation).

Month	Change	90-day	Rank	Causes
November 2026 (month to date)	−10.9% (z -1.7)	+19.4%		Trend-following funds cut oil longs as crude collapsed after the midterms (evidence −10.9%, z -1.7); Oil's war premium unwound on Iran ceasefire hopes, dragging energy shares (evidence −10.9%, z -1.7)
October 2026	+3.7% (z 0.1)	+23.9%		none of the surviving causes loads on it
September 2026	+29.1% (z 1.6)	+69.1%		Strong data, high oil prices and heavy supply pushed long real yields to highs (evidence +29.1%, z 1.6)
August 2026	−7.4% (z -0.5)	−8.9%		none of the surviving causes loads on it
July 2026	+37.6% (z 2.3)	−18.0%		Rotation from chips into old-economy stocks, with SCHD's energy holdings lifted by oil (evidence +37.6%, z 2.3)
June 2026	−24.1% (z -1.7)	−41.1%		A US-Iran deal and a hawkish Fed removed the crisis hedges (evidence −24.1%, z -1.7); Trend followers were caught by the reversal in oil and metals (evidence −24.1%, z -1.7)
May 2026	−25.2% (z -1.8)	+20.2%		Trend followers hit as oil swung sharply lower into month-end (evidence −25.2%, z -1.8)
April 2026	−1.9% (z -0.3)	+72.0%		none of the surviving causes loads on it
March 2026	+77.6% (z 10.6)	+106.5%	1	War with Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz: the largest oil supply disruption on record (explains this move, score 10.6); An oil-led commodity shock with hawkish repricing: gold fell as yields and the dollar rose (evidence +77.6%, z 10.6); Energy importers outside the US took the heaviest losses (evidence +77.6%, z 10.6)
February 2026	−1.3% (z -0.2)	+11.3%		none of the surviving causes loads on it
January 2026	+17.8% (z 2.7)	+10.4%	2	Geopolitical risk lifted oil (explains this move, score 7.7); Oil's rally lifted energy shares (ExxonMobil, Chevron) (evidence +17.8%, z 2.7)
December 2025	−4.2% (z -0.6)	−6.2%		none of the surviving causes loads on it
November 2025	−2.1% (z -0.2)	−4.5%		none of the surviving causes loads on it

What drove each month · All assets

Not investment advice. MarketMoves describes past market data and reported news for general information. Figures can be delayed or wrong; check the original source before relying on them.