What drove each month

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For each calendar month, newest first: the biggest moves (each month's change measured against that series' own history of monthly changes) and the causes that survived our checks. Each candidate cause is a fingerprint of expected moves across other assets, tested in code against what actually happened; only causes that passed are shown. As of 2026-11-04; the current month is updated each trading day. Back to the 2026-11-04 market moves page.

November 2026 (to 2026-11-04)

What drove November 2026: November so far (three sessions): oil's war premium unwound after the midterm elections raised the odds of an end to the Iran conflict. Energy (XLE) lost 9.3%, commodities (DBC) 6.9% and trend-following managed futures (CTA) 10.7% as they cut oil positions, while cheaper oil and lower market inflation pricing (breakevens −8 bp) lifted discretionary (+6.0%) and communication (+5.1%) stocks and volatility fell.

  1. Managed futures (CTA) lost 10.7% (z -6.7)

    Managed futures lost 10.7% as trend-following funds cut long oil positions when crude collapsed after the election (Brent −10.9%).

    • Trend-following funds cut oil longs as crude collapsed after the midterms (score 8.7). Supported by: Commodities (DBC) −6.9% (z -3.9); 10Y breakeven −8 bp (z -2.4); Brent crude (spot) −10.9% (z -1.7); WTI crude (spot) −7.4% (z -1.6).

  2. Energy (XLE) lost 9.3% (z -4.1)

    Energy lost 9.3% as the oil war premium unwound; ExxonMobil contributed −2.30 pp and Chevron −1.43 pp (current weights).

    • Oil's war premium unwound on Iran ceasefire hopes, dragging energy shares (score 14.7). Supported by: XOM contribution to XLE −2.3 pp; CVX contribution to XLE −1.4 pp; XOM shares −9.6% (z -4.1); 10Y breakeven −8 bp (z -2.4). XLE holdings: top contributors XOM -2.30 pp, CVX -1.43 pp, COP -0.80 pp; by sector Energy -9.19 pp. The top holdings (99.7% of the fund) add up to -9.19 pp. Current weights used for every month: an approximation.

  3. Commodities (DBC) lost 6.9% (z -3.9)

    Commodities lost 6.9% on oil supply relief: crude fell as hopes for an Iran ceasefire rose.

    • Oil supply relief (score 7.2). Supported by: 10Y breakeven −8 bp (z -2.4); WTI crude (spot) −7.4% (z -1.6); Discretionary (XLY) vs staples (XLP) +3.2 pp (z 1.6).

  4. Discretionary (XLY) gained 6.0% (z 3.0)

    Discretionary gained 6.0% as cheaper oil and lower breakevens eased pressure on consumers; Amazon contributed +2.39 pp (current weights).

    • Cheaper oil and lower breakevens lifted consumer stocks (score 10.7). Supported by: AMZN contribution to XLY +2.4 pp; 10Y breakeven −8 bp (z -2.4); VIX (Cboe) −14.5% (z -2.1); WTI crude (spot) −7.4% (z -1.6). XLY holdings: top contributors AMZN +2.39 pp, TSLA -0.70 pp, BKNG +0.46 pp; by sector Consumer Cyclical +5.20 pp, Technology +0.08 pp. The top holdings (89.9% of the fund) add up to +5.27 pp. Current weights used for every month: an approximation.

  5. Communication (XLC) gained 5.1% (z 3.0)

    Communication gained 5.1% in a post-election relief rally: volatility fell and financials and real estate rose too; AppLovin contributed +0.82 pp (current weights).

    • Relief rally after the midterms: volatility fell and cyclicals and platforms rose (score 15.1). Supported by: APP contribution to XLC +0.8 pp; Financials (XLF) +4.8% (z 2.8); META contribution to XLC +0.5 pp; Real estate (XLRE) +4.5% (z 2.4). XLC holdings: top contributors APP +0.82 pp, META +0.52 pp, TTWO +0.46 pp; by sector Communication Services +5.15 pp. The top holdings (99.5% of the fund) add up to +5.15 pp. Current weights used for every month: an approximation.

October 2026

What drove October 2026: October's driver was doubt about AI spending: Alphabet, Amazon and Meta reported negative free cash flow, chips and the platforms fell, and money rotated into defensives, value and energy. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) lost 6.7% while staples gained 10.9% and dividend payers (SCHD) 10.0%. Real yields fell 33 bp as bonds rallied, and defensives rose with them. Energy rose with high oil prices, and SCHD's holdings show it: energy contributed +2.46 pp of its gain.

  1. Dividend (SCHD) beat Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) by 16.6 pp (z 3.1)

    SCHD beat QQQ by 16.6 pp. Three causes passed: the rotation away from AI platforms and chips, SCHD's defensive holdings (staples and health care) and its energy holdings. At current weights energy contributed +2.46 pp, led by ConocoPhillips (+23.1%) and Chevron (+15.3%); Accenture added +1.45 pp.

    • AI capex doubts: rotation out of AI platforms and chips into dividend payers (score 14.8). Supported by: Equal-weight (RSP) vs cap-weight S&P 500 (SPY) +5.8 pp (z 2.8); Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) vs S&P 500 (SPY) −5.8 pp (z -2.7); Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF) +10.4 pp (z 2.5); Dow (DIA) vs Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) +8.4 pp (z 2.5). SCHD holdings: top contributors ACN +1.45 pp, COP +0.98 pp, LMT +0.76 pp; by sector Energy +2.46 pp, Technology +1.77 pp, Consumer Defensive +1.65 pp. The top holdings (80.6% of the fund) add up to +9.10 pp. Current weights used for every month: an approximation.
    • Defensive rotation lifted SCHD's staples and health care holdings (score 13.2). Supported by: Consumer Defensive contribution to SCHD +1.6 pp; Healthcare contribution to SCHD +1.3 pp; Staples (XLP) +10.9% (z 3.0); Health care (XLV) +9.8% (z 2.2). SCHD holdings: top contributors ACN +1.45 pp, COP +0.98 pp, LMT +0.76 pp; by sector Energy +2.46 pp, Technology +1.77 pp, Consumer Defensive +1.65 pp. The top holdings (80.6% of the fund) add up to +9.10 pp. Current weights used for every month: an approximation.
    • High oil prices lifted SCHD's energy holdings (oil supply shock) (score 10.0). Supported by: Energy contribution to SCHD +2.5 pp; COP shares +23.1% (z 3.0); Energy (XLE) +13.8% (z 2.1); CVX shares +15.3% (z 1.9). SCHD holdings: top contributors ACN +1.45 pp, COP +0.98 pp, LMT +0.76 pp; by sector Energy +2.46 pp, Technology +1.77 pp, Consumer Defensive +1.65 pp. The top holdings (80.6% of the fund) add up to +9.10 pp. Current weights used for every month: an approximation.

  2. Staples (XLP) gained 10.9% (z 3.0)

    Staples gained 10.9% in a defensive rotation: health care and utilities also rose while cyclicals and tech lagged. Walmart contributed +2.08 pp and Costco +1.04 pp (current weights).

    • Defensive rotation: investors favoured steady earners as tech sold off (score 14.9). Supported by: WMT contribution to XLP +2.1 pp; COST contribution to XLP +1.0 pp; Tech (XLK) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) −18.6 pp (z -2.8); Health care (XLV) +9.8% (z 2.2). XLP holdings: top contributors WMT +2.08 pp, COST +1.04 pp, PG +0.92 pp; by sector Consumer Defensive +10.44 pp, Consumer Cyclical +0.18 pp. The top holdings (91.2% of the fund) add up to +10.62 pp. Current weights used for every month: an approximation.

  3. Communication (XLC) lost 10.0% (z -3.0)

    Communication lost 10.0% as AI spending outran cash flow at the platforms: Meta contributed −3.23 pp and Alphabet (GOOGL) −2.33 pp, while chips fell too.

    • AI spending outran cash flow: Alphabet and Meta sold off (score 11.9). Supported by: META contribution to XLC −3.2 pp; GOOGL contribution to XLC −2.3 pp; Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY) −13.3 pp (z -2.3); AI leaders basket vs S&P 500 (SPY) −8.0 pp (z -1.9). XLC holdings: top contributors META -3.23 pp, GOOGL -2.33 pp, GOOG -1.83 pp; by sector Communication Services -9.55 pp. The top holdings (99.5% of the fund) add up to -9.54 pp. Current weights used for every month: an approximation.

  4. Equal-weight (RSP) beat cap-weight S&P 500 (SPY) by 5.8 pp (z 2.8)

    The equal-weight S&P 500 beat the cap-weighted index by 5.8 pp: AI capex doubts hit the mega-cap platforms that dominate the index, while the average stock held up.

    • AI capex / profitability doubts (score 16.4). Supported by: Tech (XLK) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) −18.6 pp (z -2.8); Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF) +10.4 pp (z 2.5); Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY) −13.3 pp (z -2.3); AI leaders basket vs S&P 500 (SPY) −8.0 pp (z -1.9).

  5. Tech (XLK) lagged defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 18.6 pp (z -2.8)

    Tech lagged defensives by 18.6 pp: AI capex doubts hit tech, while defensives rallied with bonds as yields fell (real yield −33 bp, long Treasuries ZROZ +9.4%).

    • AI capex / profitability doubts (score 16.4). Supported by: Equal-weight (RSP) vs cap-weight S&P 500 (SPY) +5.8 pp (z 2.8); Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF) +10.4 pp (z 2.5); Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY) −13.3 pp (z -2.3); AI leaders basket vs S&P 500 (SPY) −8.0 pp (z -1.9).
    • Flight to defensives as yields fell and bonds rallied (score 13.7). Supported by: Staples (XLP) +10.9% (z 3.0); Health care (XLV) +9.8% (z 2.2); Utilities (XLU) +10.1% (z 2.0); TIPS (TIP) +2.5% (z 1.8).

September 2026

What drove September 2026: September was a rates shock: the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023 and signalled more, while strong data and oil above the war-time highs pushed yields to multi-decade highs. Bill yields rose 29 bp, the 2-year 54 bp and the 10-year real yield 49 bp; TIPS lost 2.6%, high yield 2.7% as spreads widened, and dividend payers (SCHD) lost 6.0%.

  1. US 3M bill rose 29 bp (z 2.9)

    The 3-month bill yield rose 29 bp with the Fed's first hike since 2023 and signals of another; the 2-year rose 54 bp and the dollar firmed.

    • The Fed's first hike since 2023 and signals of another (score 8.3). Supported by: SOFR (NY Fed) +22 bp (z 2.7); USD/MXN +6.4% (z 2.4); US 2Y +54 bp (z 2.2); Dollar (UUP ETF) +2.3% (z 1.0).

  2. SOFR (NY Fed) rose 22 bp (z 2.7)

    SOFR rose 22 bp as the Fed raised its policy rate in mid-September.

    • The Fed's first hike since 2023 lifted overnight funding rates (score 6.1). Supported by: US 3M bill +29 bp (z 2.9); US 2Y +54 bp (z 2.2); Dollar (UUP ETF) +2.3% (z 1.0).

  3. High yield (HYG) lost 2.7% (z -2.6)

    High yield lost 2.7% as the rate shock widened spreads: investment grade (LQD) lost 3.4% and EM dollar bonds 3.7%.

    • Rate shock with wider high-yield spreads (score 9.3). Supported by: EM dollar debt (EMB) −3.7% (z -2.1); Financials (XLF) −7.1% (z -2.1); US 10Y +54 bp (z 2.0); IG corporate (LQD) −3.4% (z -1.7).

  4. TIPS (TIP) lost 2.6% (z -2.4)

    TIPS lost 2.6% because real yields jumped 49 bp with the hike and strong data, and long Treasuries fell.

    • Real yields jumped with the hike and strong data, so TIPS fell (score 7.4). Supported by: 10Y real yield +49 bp (z 2.4); US 10Y +54 bp (z 2.0); Gold (GLD ETF) −6.8% (z -1.7); Long zero-coupon (ZROZ) −8.2% (z -1.2).

  5. 10Y real yield rose 49 bp (z 2.4)

    The 10-year real yield rose 49 bp on strong data, higher oil and heavy Treasury supply.

    • Strong data, high oil prices and heavy supply pushed long real yields to highs (score 8.6). Supported by: US 2Y +54 bp (z 2.2); US 10Y +54 bp (z 2.0); Brent crude (spot) +29.1% (z 1.6); US 30Y +39 bp (z 1.5).

August 2026

What drove August 2026: August was a rebound plus a hard-asset bid. Software (IGV) gained 16.3% as fears that AI would disrupt it eased after strong results, led by Palantir. Gold (+9.9%), bitcoin (+25.1%) and ether (+32.6%) rose together with firmer EM currencies and rising attention on government debt management: a hard-asset trade, not a flight to safety.

  1. Software (IGV) gained 16.3% (z 2.0)

    Software gained 16.3%: Palantir alone contributed +4.74 pp (shares +51.5%), Salesforce +1.70 pp and ServiceNow +1.62 pp, as strong results eased fears that AI would disrupt software (current weights).

    • Software rebound: AI-disruption fears eased after strong results (Palantir, Salesforce, ServiceNow) (score 17.0). Supported by: PLTR contribution to IGV +4.7 pp; CRM contribution to IGV +1.7 pp; NOW contribution to IGV +1.6 pp; CRM shares +40.0% (z 4.0). IGV holdings: top contributors PLTR +4.74 pp, CRM +1.70 pp, NOW +1.62 pp; by sector Technology +17.05 pp, Communication Services -0.66 pp. The top holdings (83.8% of the fund) add up to +16.40 pp. Current weights used for every month: an approximation.

  2. Bitcoin beat S&P 500 (SPY) by 22.4 pp (z 1.6)

    Bitcoin beat the S&P 500 by 22.4 pp in a hard-asset trade: ether, gold and silver rose with it while EM currencies firmed.

    • Hard-asset / debasement trade: bitcoin rallied with gold and silver (score 5.2). Supported by: Ethereum (USD) +32.6% (z 1.5); Gold (GLD ETF) +9.9% (z 1.5); Silver (SLV ETF) +14.8% (z 1.2); EM FX stress (USD vs EM currencies) −1.6% (z -1.0).

  3. Ethereum (USD) gained 32.6% (z 1.5)

    Ether gained 32.6% with bitcoin and gold in the same hard-asset trade.

    • Hard-asset / debasement trade: ether rallied with bitcoin and gold (score 5.2). Supported by: Bitcoin (USD) +25.1% (z 1.5); Gold (GLD ETF) +9.9% (z 1.5); Silver (SLV ETF) +14.8% (z 1.2); EM FX stress (USD vs EM currencies) −1.6% (z -1.0).

  4. Gold (GLD ETF) gained 9.9% (z 1.5)

    Gold gained 9.9% with silver and bitcoin in a hard-asset trade; a dovish Fed repricing also passed the checks, supported by firmer EM currencies and bitcoin.

    • Hard-asset / debasement trade lifted gold, silver and crypto together (score 5.3). Supported by: Bitcoin (USD) +25.1% (z 1.5); Ethereum (USD) +32.6% (z 1.5); Silver (SLV ETF) +14.8% (z 1.2); EM FX stress (USD vs EM currencies) −1.6% (z -1.0).
    • Dovish Fed repricing (score 2.5). Supported by: Bitcoin (USD) +25.1% (z 1.5); EM FX stress (USD vs EM currencies) −1.6% (z -1.0).

  5. Copper (CPER) lagged gold (GLD) by 8.8 pp (z -1.4)

    Copper lagged gold by 8.8 pp because precious metals were bid, while equities and bitcoin rose.

    • Precious metals were bid in the hard-asset trade, so gold outran copper (score 5.2). Supported by: Bitcoin (USD) +25.1% (z 1.5); Gold (GLD ETF) +9.9% (z 1.5); Silver (SLV ETF) +14.8% (z 1.2); EM FX stress (USD vs EM currencies) −1.6% (z -1.0).

July 2026

What drove July 2026: July's driver was a momentum unwind in chips and memory: semiconductors (SMH) lost 17.6% and lagged the S&P 500 by 17.6 pp, while money rotated into old-economy sectors and energy as oil rose (Brent +37.6%). The AI platforms held up better than the chipmakers, so this was not broad AI doubt alone. Chip-heavy emerging Asia lagged developed markets by 8.0 pp, and SCHD beat QQQ by 12.1 pp.

  1. Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) lagged S&P 500 (SPY) by 6.6 pp (z -3.8)

    The Nasdaq 100 lagged the S&P 500 by 6.6 pp as chips sold off and money moved to old-economy sectors; Micron cost QQQ −1.36 pp while Microsoft added +1.50 pp (current weights).

    • Chip selloff and rotation into old-economy sectors weighed on the Nasdaq 100 (score 11.4). Supported by: MU contribution to QQQ −1.4 pp; Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY) −17.6 pp (z -3.4); Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF) +8.6 pp (z 2.3); Tech (XLK) −8.0% (z -1.6). QQQ holdings: top contributors MSFT +1.50 pp, MU -1.36 pp, SPCX -0.97 pp; by sector Technology -1.61 pp, Industrials -0.97 pp, Consumer Cyclical -0.26 pp. The top holdings (71.8% of the fund) add up to -2.88 pp. Current weights used for every month: an approximation.

  2. Semiconductors (SMH) lagged S&P 500 (SPY) by 17.6 pp (z -3.4)

    Semis lagged the market by 17.6 pp in a chip and memory momentum unwind: KLA (−1.83 pp), Marvell (−1.64 pp) and Intel (−1.63 pp) led the drop at current weights, while platform leaders held up.

    • Chip and memory momentum unwind, while platform leaders like Microsoft held up (score 13.4). Supported by: KLAC contribution to SMH −1.8 pp; MRVL contribution to SMH −1.6 pp; INTC contribution to SMH −1.6 pp; MU shares −28.7% (z -1.8).
    • AI capex / profitability doubts (score 3.5). Supported by: Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF) +8.6 pp (z 2.3); Tech (XLK) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) −8.8 pp (z -1.5).

  3. Emerging (EEM) lagged developed ex-US (EFA) by 8.0 pp (z -2.9)

    Emerging markets lagged developed ex-US by 8.0 pp as the memory-chip selloff hit chip-heavy Asia.

    • The memory-chip selloff hit chip-heavy emerging Asia (SK Hynix, Samsung) (score 9.2). Supported by: Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY) −17.6 pp (z -3.4); Semiconductors (SMH) −17.6% (z -2.5); Emerging (EEM) vs S&P 500 (SPY) −6.3 pp (z -1.9); Emerging (EEM) −6.3% (z -1.8).

  4. Dividend (SCHD) beat Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) by 12.1 pp (z 2.6)

    SCHD beat QQQ by 12.1 pp on the rotation from chips into old-economy stocks; its energy holdings added +1.98 pp as oil rose, with Chevron +18.7% (current weights).

    • Rotation from chips into old-economy stocks, with SCHD's energy holdings lifted by oil (score 15.2). Supported by: Energy contribution to SCHD +2.0 pp; Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY) −17.6 pp (z -3.4); CVX shares +18.7% (z 2.6); Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF) +8.6 pp (z 2.3). QQQ holdings: top contributors MSFT +1.50 pp, MU -1.36 pp, SPCX -0.97 pp; by sector Technology -1.61 pp, Industrials -0.97 pp, Consumer Cyclical -0.26 pp. The top holdings (71.8% of the fund) add up to -2.88 pp. Current weights used for every month: an approximation.

  5. Dow (DIA) beat Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) by 7.0 pp (z 2.4)

    The Dow beat the Nasdaq 100 by 7.0 pp in a broad rotation from tech momentum into blue chips and energy.

    • Broad rotation from tech momentum into old-economy blue chips (score 8.8). Supported by: Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY) −17.6 pp (z -3.4); Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF) +8.6 pp (z 2.3); Energy (XLE) +12.1% (z 2.0); High yield (HYG) vs IG corporate (LQD) +2.1 pp (z 1.6). QQQ holdings: top contributors MSFT +1.50 pp, MU -1.36 pp, SPCX -0.97 pp; by sector Technology -1.61 pp, Industrials -0.97 pp, Consumer Cyclical -0.26 pp. The top holdings (71.8% of the fund) add up to -2.88 pp. Current weights used for every month: an approximation.

June 2026

What drove June 2026: June unwound the crisis trade. A US-Iran agreement collapsed oil's war premium (Brent −24.1%) while the first FOMC under Warsh struck a hawkish tone and the dollar rose 2.7%. Gold lost 11.7%, silver 21.8% and commodities 9.6%; trend-following managed futures lost 9.7% on the reversal. The AI leaders lagged the S&P 500 by 9.6 pp as real yields rose.

  1. Gold (GLD ETF) lost 11.7% (z -3.0)

    Gold lost 11.7% as a hawkish Fed and a stronger dollar met falling inflation pressure and higher real yields.

    • Hawkish first FOMC under Warsh and a stronger dollar (score 9.3). Supported by: Silver (SLV ETF) −21.8% (z -2.8); US 3M bill +18 bp (z 2.1); Bitcoin (USD) −20.5% (z -1.7); 2s10s spread −17 bp (z -1.5).
    • Inflation pressure easing (score 9.0). Supported by: Commodities (DBC) −9.6% (z -2.5); WTI crude (spot) −22.6% (z -2.1); 10Y breakeven −14 bp (z -1.6); 2s10s spread −17 bp (z -1.5).
    • Real-yield shock (score 7.6). Supported by: AI leaders basket vs S&P 500 (SPY) −9.6 pp (z -2.5); Bitcoin (USD) −20.5% (z -1.7); Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF) +5.0 pp (z 1.5); Dollar (UUP ETF) +2.7% (z 1.2).

  2. Silver (SLV ETF) lost 21.8% (z -2.8)

    Silver lost 21.8% as the US-Iran deal and a hawkish Fed removed the crisis hedges; oil, gold and bitcoin fell with it.

    • A US-Iran deal and a hawkish Fed removed the crisis hedges (score 11.2). Supported by: Gold (GLD ETF) −11.7% (z -3.0); WTI crude (spot) −22.6% (z -2.1); Bitcoin (USD) −20.5% (z -1.7); Brent crude (spot) −24.1% (z -1.7).

  3. Managed futures (CTA) lost 9.7% (z -2.6)

    Managed futures lost 9.7% as trend followers were caught by the reversal in oil and metals.

    • Trend followers were caught by the reversal in oil and metals (score 9.5). Supported by: Gold (GLD ETF) −11.7% (z -3.0); Silver (SLV ETF) −21.8% (z -2.8); WTI crude (spot) −22.6% (z -2.1); Brent crude (spot) −24.1% (z -1.7).

  4. Commodities (DBC) lost 9.6% (z -2.5)

    Commodities lost 9.6% on oil supply relief after the US-Iran deal, with breakevens down 14 bp.

    • Inflation pressure easing (score 6.7). Supported by: Gold (GLD ETF) −11.7% (z -3.0); WTI crude (spot) −22.6% (z -2.1); 10Y breakeven −14 bp (z -1.6); 2s10s spread −17 bp (z -1.5).
    • Oil supply relief (score 6.7). Supported by: WTI crude (spot) −22.6% (z -2.1); Energy stocks (XLE) vs WTI crude +17.6 pp (z 1.8); 10Y breakeven −14 bp (z -1.6).

  5. AI leaders basket lagged S&P 500 (SPY) by 9.6 pp (z -2.5)

    The AI leaders lagged the S&P 500 by 9.6 pp as real yields rose 13 bp, a real-yield shock for long-duration growth stocks.

    • Real-yield shock (score 6.7). Supported by: Gold (GLD ETF) −11.7% (z -3.0); Bitcoin (USD) −20.5% (z -1.7); Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF) +5.0 pp (z 1.5); Dollar (UUP ETF) +2.7% (z 1.2).

May 2026

What drove May 2026: May was an AI hardware and software rally: tech (XLK) gained 19.8% and software (IGV) 21.1%, led by memory and chip makers and by security software, and the Nasdaq 100 beat the S&P 500 by 5.3 pp. Defensives lagged as yields rose. Oil swung sharply lower into month-end (Brent −25.2%), and trend-following managed futures lost 10.3%.

  1. Managed futures (CTA) lost 10.3% (z -3.2)

    Managed futures lost 10.3% as oil swung sharply lower into month-end and trend followers were caught.

    • Trend followers hit as oil swung sharply lower into month-end (score 4.9). Supported by: Brent crude (spot) −25.2% (z -1.8); WTI crude (spot) −16.1% (z -1.6); Commodities (DBC) −5.2% (z -1.5).

  2. Tech (XLK) beat defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 21.2 pp (z 3.1)

    Tech beat defensives by 21.2 pp: chips and memory rallied while utilities lost 5.2% as yields rose.

    • AI hardware rally while defensives lagged as yields rose (score 9.0). Supported by: Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) vs S&P 500 (SPY) +5.3 pp (z 2.3); Dow (DIA) vs Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) −7.7 pp (z -2.0); Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY) +12.9 pp (z 1.7); Dividend (SCHD) vs Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) −9.2 pp (z -1.6).

  3. Tech (XLK) gained 19.8% (z 3.0)

    Tech gained 19.8% on an AI hardware rally: Micron contributed +3.70 pp (shares +87.8%) and AMD +2.23 pp (current weights).

    • AI hardware rally: memory and chip makers led tech (score 12.7). Supported by: MU contribution to XLK +3.7 pp; AMD contribution to XLK +2.2 pp; MU shares +87.8% (z 4.6); AMD shares +45.6% (z 2.0). XLK holdings: top contributors MU +3.70 pp, AMD +2.23 pp, AAPL +2.17 pp; by sector Technology +17.99 pp. The top holdings (84.4% of the fund) add up to +18.00 pp. Current weights used for every month: an approximation.

  4. Software (IGV) gained 21.1% (z 2.9)

    Software gained 21.1%, concentrated in security and infrastructure names: CrowdStrike +4.85 pp, Palo Alto Networks +4.70 pp and Oracle +2.62 pp (current weights).

    • Security and infrastructure software rallied (CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, Oracle) (score 15.0). Supported by: CRWD contribution to IGV +4.9 pp; PANW contribution to IGV +4.7 pp; ORCL contribution to IGV +2.6 pp; PANW shares +57.1% (z 5.7). IGV holdings: top contributors CRWD +4.85 pp, PANW +4.70 pp, ORCL +2.62 pp; by sector Technology +22.94 pp, Communication Services +1.01 pp. The top holdings (83.8% of the fund) add up to +23.95 pp. Current weights used for every month: an approximation.

  5. Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) beat S&P 500 (SPY) by 5.3 pp (z 2.3)

    The Nasdaq 100 beat the S&P 500 by 5.3 pp on mega-cap tech strength; Micron alone contributed +4.16 pp to QQQ (current weights).

    • Mega-cap tech strength put the Nasdaq 100 ahead (score 10.9). Supported by: MU contribution to QQQ +4.2 pp; AMD contribution to QQQ +1.8 pp; Dow (DIA) vs Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) −7.7 pp (z -2.0); Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY) +12.9 pp (z 1.7). QQQ holdings: top contributors MU +4.16 pp, AMD +1.84 pp, AAPL +1.17 pp; by sector Technology +11.90 pp, Consumer Cyclical +0.56 pp, Consumer Defensive -0.40 pp. The top holdings (69.1% of the fund) add up to +11.96 pp. Current weights used for every month: an approximation.

April 2026

What drove April 2026: April was relief plus AI: a US-Iran ceasefire early in the month started one of the strongest rallies in decades, and AI earnings and higher capex plans drove chips. Semiconductors (SMH) gained 32.2%, tech 20.0% and the Nasdaq 100 15.7%; the VIX fell 33.1%. Chip-heavy emerging markets gained 12.7%. Intel (+114.1%) and AMD (+74.3%) led the chip holdings.

  1. Semiconductors (SMH) gained 32.2% (z 3.8)

    Semis gained 32.2% in a historic chip rally after the ceasefire: Intel contributed +5.26 pp, AMD +4.14 pp and Marvell +2.97 pp (current weights).

    • Historic chip rally on AI demand after the ceasefire (score 16.9). Supported by: INTC contribution to SMH +5.3 pp; AMD contribution to SMH +4.1 pp; MRVL contribution to SMH +3.0 pp; INTC shares +114.1% (z 7.8). SMH holdings: top contributors INTC +5.26 pp, AMD +4.14 pp, MRVL +2.97 pp; by sector Technology +33.13 pp. The top holdings (95.5% of the fund) add up to +33.13 pp. Current weights used for every month: an approximation.

  2. Tech (XLK) gained 20.0% (z 3.6)

    Tech gained 20.0% on AI earnings and the ceasefire; AMD added +3.63 pp and Intel +3.14 pp (current weights).

    • Tech roared back on AI earnings and the ceasefire (score 12.6). Supported by: AMD contribution to XLK +3.6 pp; INTC contribution to XLK +3.1 pp; Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY) +21.7 pp (z 3.6); VIX (Cboe) −33.1% (z -1.9). XLK holdings: top contributors AMD +3.63 pp, INTC +3.14 pp, MU +2.24 pp; by sector Technology +21.21 pp. The top holdings (84.4% of the fund) add up to +21.21 pp. Current weights used for every month: an approximation.

  3. Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) gained 15.7% (z 3.2)

    The Nasdaq 100 gained 15.7% as ceasefire relief cut the VIX 33.1% and AI chip names led.

    • Ceasefire relief plus AI earnings: the Nasdaq 100's best month in decades (score 13.6). Supported by: AMD contribution to QQQ +3.0 pp; MU contribution to QQQ +2.5 pp; Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY) +21.7 pp (z 3.6); S&P 500 (SPY) +10.5% (z 2.6). QQQ holdings: top contributors AMD +2.99 pp, MU +2.52 pp, INTC +2.44 pp; by sector Technology +12.78 pp, Communication Services +2.07 pp, Consumer Cyclical +1.24 pp. The top holdings (69.1% of the fund) add up to +16.27 pp. Current weights used for every month: an approximation.

  4. Tech (XLK) beat defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 18.5 pp (z 3.1)

    Tech beat defensives by 18.5 pp on AI optimism.

    • AI optimism (score 15.3). Supported by: Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY) +21.7 pp (z 3.6); S&P 500 (SPY) +10.5% (z 2.6); Equal-weight (RSP) vs cap-weight S&P 500 (SPY) −4.5 pp (z -2.0); AI leaders basket vs S&P 500 (SPY) +10.7 pp (z 1.7).

  5. Emerging (EEM) gained 12.7% (z 2.8)

    Emerging markets gained 12.7% as chip-heavy Asian markets led the ceasefire rally.

    • Chip-heavy Asian markets led the ceasefire rally (score 9.9). Supported by: Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY) +21.7 pp (z 3.6); Emerging (EEM) vs developed ex-US (EFA) +7.3 pp (z 2.7); Emerging (VWO) +9.0% (z 2.3); VIX (Cboe) −33.1% (z -1.9).

March 2026

What drove March 2026: March was the oil supply shock: war with Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and Brent gained 77.6% (WTI +53.6%), the largest supply disruption on record. Energy stocks rose only 10.3%, lagging crude by 43.4 pp. The shock came with hawkish repricing: the 2-year rose 41 bp, real yields 28 bp and the dollar 2.6%, so gold lost 11.1%. Energy importers sold off hardest; Japan lost 8.6%.

  1. Brent crude (spot) gained 77.6% (z 10.6)

    Brent gained 77.6% as the war closed the Strait of Hormuz.

    • War with Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz: the largest oil supply disruption on record (score 10.6). Supported by: Energy stocks (XLE) vs WTI crude −43.4 pp (z -8.1); WTI crude (spot) +53.6% (z 7.7); Commodities (DBC) +15.3% (z 4.4); Energy (XLE) +10.3% (z 1.6).

  2. Energy stocks (XLE) lagged WTI crude by 43.4 pp (z -8.1)

    Energy stocks lagged WTI by 43.4 pp: an oil supply shock lifts crude far faster than producers' shares. ExxonMobil contributed +2.69 pp and Chevron +1.96 pp to XLE's 10.3% gain (current weights).

    • Oil supply shock (score 12.1). Supported by: WTI crude (spot) +53.6% (z 7.7); Commodities (DBC) +15.3% (z 4.4); S&P 500 (SPY) −4.9% (z -2.0); US 10Y +33 bp (z 1.3).

  3. Commodities (DBC) gained 15.3% (z 4.4)

    Commodities gained 15.3% in an oil-led shock with hawkish repricing.

    • An oil-led commodity shock with hawkish repricing: gold fell as yields and the dollar rose (score 13.1). Supported by: Brent crude (spot) +77.6% (z 10.6); WTI crude (spot) +53.6% (z 7.7); Gold (GLD ETF) −11.1% (z -3.4); US 2Y +41 bp (z 1.6).
    • Oil supply shock (score 9.1). Supported by: Energy stocks (XLE) vs WTI crude −43.4 pp (z -8.1); WTI crude (spot) +53.6% (z 7.7); S&P 500 (SPY) −4.9% (z -2.0); US 10Y +33 bp (z 1.3).
    • Inflation scare (score 2.9). Supported by: WTI crude (spot) +53.6% (z 7.7); S&P 500 (SPY) −4.9% (z -2.0); US 10Y +33 bp (z 1.3).

  4. Gold (GLD ETF) lost 11.1% (z -3.4)

    Gold lost 11.1% as the Fed was repriced hawkishly and real yields rose 28 bp with a firmer dollar.

    • Hawkish Fed repricing (score 12.0). Supported by: EM FX stress (USD vs EM currencies) +3.8% (z 2.2); S&P 500 (SPY) −4.9% (z -2.0); US 2Y +41 bp (z 1.6); 10Y real yield +28 bp (z 1.4).
    • Real-yield shock (score 6.8). Supported by: S&P 500 (SPY) −4.9% (z -2.0); 10Y real yield +28 bp (z 1.4); US 10Y +33 bp (z 1.3); Dollar (UUP ETF) +2.6% (z 1.2).

  5. Japan (EWJ) lost 8.6% (z -3.2)

    Japan lost 8.6% as energy importers outside the US took the heaviest losses and EM currencies weakened.

    • Energy importers outside the US took the heaviest losses (score 13.9). Supported by: Brent crude (spot) +77.6% (z 10.6); Emerging (EEM) −9.2% (z -3.0); Developed (VEA) −8.6% (z -3.0); Developed ex-US (EFA) −7.8% (z -2.8).

February 2026

What drove February 2026: February was a rotation driven by AI-disruption angst: after a new AI coding model hit software, money left US mega-cap tech for defensives, value and markets abroad. The equal-weight S&P 500 beat the cap-weighted index by 4.3 pp, utilities gained 10.4% and staples 7.8% as Treasury yields fell (10-year −29 bp), and emerging markets beat the US by 6.8 pp. Amazon cost XLY −2.74 pp.

  1. Equal-weight (RSP) beat cap-weight S&P 500 (SPY) by 4.3 pp (z 2.6)

    The equal-weight S&P 500 beat the cap-weighted index by 4.3 pp as AI doubts hit the mega-caps.

    • AI capex / profitability doubts (score 12.0). Supported by: Tech (XLK) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) −10.8 pp (z -2.3); S&P 500 (SPY) vs developed ex-US (EFA) −5.5 pp (z -2.1); AI leaders basket vs S&P 500 (SPY) −7.1 pp (z -1.9); Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF) +6.0 pp (z 1.8).

  2. Discretionary (XLY) lagged staples (XLP) by 11.3 pp (z -2.4)

    Discretionary lagged staples by 11.3 pp on AI-disruption angst and a flight to defensives; Amazon contributed −2.74 pp to XLY (current weights).

    • AI-disruption angst and a flight to defensives: Amazon fell, staples rose (score 12.7). Supported by: AMZN contribution to XLY −2.7 pp; Tech (XLK) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) −10.8 pp (z -2.3); Utilities (XLU) +10.4% (z 2.2); Staples (XLP) +7.8% (z 2.2).

  3. Tech (XLK) lagged defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 10.8 pp (z -2.3)

    Tech lagged defensives by 10.8 pp on AI doubts.

    • AI capex / profitability doubts (score 12.4). Supported by: Equal-weight (RSP) vs cap-weight S&P 500 (SPY) +4.3 pp (z 2.6); S&P 500 (SPY) vs developed ex-US (EFA) −5.5 pp (z -2.1); AI leaders basket vs S&P 500 (SPY) −7.1 pp (z -1.9); Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF) +6.0 pp (z 1.8).

  4. Emerging (EEM) beat S&P 500 (SPY) by 6.8 pp (z 2.2)

    Emerging markets beat the S&P 500 by 6.8 pp in a rotation away from US mega-cap tech toward markets abroad.

    • Rotation away from US mega-cap tech toward markets abroad (Korea) (score 7.4). Supported by: S&P 500 (SPY) vs developed ex-US (EFA) −5.5 pp (z -2.1); Japan (EWJ) +7.8% (z 2.0); AI leaders basket vs S&P 500 (SPY) −7.1 pp (z -1.9); Developed (VEA) +6.1% (z 1.4).

  5. Utilities (XLU) gained 10.4% (z 2.2)

    Utilities gained 10.4% as Treasury yields fell and investors sought safety; long Treasuries (ZROZ) gained 7.3%.

    • Utilities led as Treasury yields fell and investors sought safety (score 7.1). Supported by: Tech (XLK) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) −10.8 pp (z -2.3); Staples (XLP) +7.8% (z 2.2); Gold (GLD ETF) +8.7% (z 1.4); Long zero-coupon (ZROZ) +7.3% (z 1.2).

January 2026

What drove January 2026: January combined an oil and gold rally with a software slump. Geopolitical risk lifted Brent 17.8% and energy stocks 14.2%; a weak dollar helped gold (+12.3%) and emerging markets. Late in the month a new AI coding model sparked fears for software business models, and software (IGV) lost 14.6%. Dividend payers (SCHD) gained 8.7%.

  1. Commodities (DBC) gained 9.3% (z 2.9)

    Commodities gained 9.3% on an oil supply shock with rising inflation pricing (breakevens +11 bp).

    • Inflation scare (score 7.8). Supported by: Gold (GLD ETF) +12.3% (z 2.5); WTI crude (spot) +12.6% (z 2.0); Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF) +6.1 pp (z 1.9); 10Y breakeven +11 bp (z 1.2).
    • Oil supply shock (score 6.6). Supported by: WTI crude (spot) +12.6% (z 2.0); Discretionary (XLY) vs staples (XLP) −6.0 pp (z -1.3); 10Y breakeven +11 bp (z 1.2).

  2. Brent crude (spot) gained 17.8% (z 2.7)

    Brent gained 17.8% as geopolitical risk lifted oil.

    • Geopolitical risk lifted oil (score 7.7). Supported by: Commodities (DBC) +9.3% (z 2.9); Energy (XLE) +14.2% (z 2.7); WTI crude (spot) +12.6% (z 2.0).

  3. Energy (XLE) gained 14.2% (z 2.7)

    Energy gained 14.2% with oil: ExxonMobil contributed +4.19 pp and Chevron +2.92 pp (current weights).

    • Oil's rally lifted energy shares (ExxonMobil, Chevron) (score 13.8). Supported by: XOM contribution to XLE +4.2 pp; CVX contribution to XLE +2.9 pp; XOM shares +17.5% (z 3.2); Brent crude (spot) +17.8% (z 2.7). XLE holdings: top contributors XOM +4.19 pp, CVX +2.92 pp, SLB +1.01 pp; by sector Energy +14.01 pp. The top holdings (99.7% of the fund) add up to +14.01 pp. Current weights used for every month: an approximation.

  4. Software (IGV) lost 14.6% (z -2.7)

    Software lost 14.6% after a new AI coding model sparked fears for its business models: Palantir −1.61 pp, ServiceNow −1.16 pp and Oracle −1.01 pp (current weights).

    • A new AI coding model sparked fears for software business models (score 13.9). Supported by: PLTR contribution to IGV −1.6 pp; NOW contribution to IGV −1.2 pp; ORCL contribution to IGV −1.0 pp; NOW shares −23.6% (z -2.9). IGV holdings: top contributors PLTR -1.61 pp, NOW -1.16 pp, ORCL -1.01 pp; by sector Technology -9.48 pp, Communication Services -0.93 pp. The top holdings (83.8% of the fund) add up to -10.41 pp. Current weights used for every month: an approximation.

  5. Gold (GLD ETF) gained 12.3% (z 2.5)

    Gold gained 12.3% on a weak dollar, geopolitical risk and inflation pricing, with silver and emerging markets rising too.

    • Inflation scare (score 9.7). Supported by: Commodities (DBC) +9.3% (z 2.9); WTI crude (spot) +12.6% (z 2.0); Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF) +6.1 pp (z 1.9); 10Y breakeven +11 bp (z 1.2).
    • A weak dollar and geopolitical risk drove gold and emerging markets (score 7.3). Supported by: Emerging (EEM) vs S&P 500 (SPY) +6.5 pp (z 2.3); Bitcoin vs gold (GLD) −22.4 pp (z -1.7); Emerging (EEM) +8.0% (z 1.7); Silver (SLV ETF) +17.1% (z 1.6).

December 2025

What drove December 2025: December's moves came from the Fed's third consecutive cut and an industrial-metals squeeze. SOFR fell 25 bp and the 3-month bill 21 bp, while silver beat gold by 23.6 pp and copper beat gold by 6.1 pp as silver hit records. Utilities lost 5.1% as AI valuations faced scrutiny after Oracle and Broadcom disappointed.

  1. Silver (SLV) beat gold (GLD) by 23.6 pp (z 4.3)

    Silver beat gold by 23.6 pp in an industrial-metals squeeze; silver hit records and copper rose too.

    • Industrial-metal squeeze: silver and copper hit records after the cut (score 5.6). Supported by: Silver (SLV ETF) +25.8% (z 3.0); Copper (CPER) vs gold (GLD) +6.1 pp (z 1.4); Copper (CPER ETF) +8.3% (z 1.2).

  2. SOFR (NY Fed) fell 25 bp (z -1.7)

    SOFR fell 25 bp with the Fed's third consecutive cut; bill yields fell and cyclicals beat defensives.

    • The Fed's third consecutive cut lowered funding and bill rates and favoured cyclicals (score 3.4). Supported by: US 3M bill −21 bp (z -1.3); Cyclicals (XLY, XLF, XLI, XLB) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) +4.5 pp (z 1.1); T-bill ETF (SGOV) +0.3% (z -1.1).

  3. Utilities (XLU) lost 5.1% (z -1.5)

    Utilities lost 5.1% as AI valuation doubts hit the AI-power trade; NextEra contributed −0.88 pp (current weights).

    • AI valuation doubts (Oracle, Broadcom) hit the AI-power trade in utilities (score 5.0). Supported by: NEE contribution to XLU −0.9 pp; DUK contribution to XLU −0.4 pp. XLU holdings: top contributors NEE -0.88 pp, DUK -0.39 pp, AEP -0.36 pp; by sector Utilities -4.71 pp. The top holdings (92.0% of the fund) add up to -4.71 pp. Current weights used for every month: an approximation.

  4. Copper (CPER) beat gold (GLD) by 6.1 pp (z 1.4)

    Copper beat gold by 6.1 pp in the same industrial-metals squeeze.

    • Industrial-metal squeeze lifted copper and silver above gold (score 7.2). Supported by: Silver (SLV) vs gold (GLD) +23.6 pp (z 4.3); Silver (SLV ETF) +25.8% (z 3.0); Copper (CPER ETF) +8.3% (z 1.2).

  5. US 3M bill fell 21 bp (z -1.3)

    The 3-month bill fell 21 bp with the Fed's cut.

    • The Fed's third consecutive cut lowered bill yields and favoured cyclicals (score 3.8). Supported by: SOFR (NY Fed) −25 bp (z -1.7); Cyclicals (XLY, XLF, XLI, XLB) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) +4.5 pp (z 1.1); T-bill ETF (SGOV) +0.3% (z -1.1).

November 2025

What drove November 2025: November was a rotation from AI into health care: AI-bubble fears hit software (IGV −9.9%) and tech lagged defensives by 9.8 pp, while health care gained 9.3%, led by Eli Lilly. Crypto sold off with the AI trade (bitcoin −17.5%), so bitcoin lagged gold by 22.9 pp. Silver beat gold by 11.0 pp, but no tested cause for that move passed the checks.

  1. Health care (XLV) gained 9.3% (z 2.4)

    Health care gained 9.3% as investors rotated from AI: Eli Lilly contributed +3.75 pp (shares +24.8%) and Merck +1.29 pp (current weights).

    • Rotation from AI into health care (Eli Lilly, Merck) (score 12.1). Supported by: LLY contribution to XLV +3.8 pp; MRK contribution to XLV +1.3 pp; LLY shares +24.8% (z 2.4); Tech (XLK) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) −9.8 pp (z -2.2). XLV holdings: top contributors LLY +3.75 pp, MRK +1.29 pp, JNJ +1.04 pp; by sector Healthcare +9.11 pp. The top holdings (84.0% of the fund) add up to +9.11 pp. Current weights used for every month: an approximation.

  2. Tech (XLK) lagged defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 9.8 pp (z -2.2)

    Tech lagged defensives by 9.8 pp on AI doubts.

    • AI capex / profitability doubts (score 4.2). Supported by: Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF) +4.5 pp (z 1.6); Equal-weight (RSP) vs cap-weight S&P 500 (SPY) +1.7 pp (z 1.3).
    • Real-yield shock (score 3.9). Supported by: Bitcoin (USD) −17.5% (z -1.6); Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF) +4.5 pp (z 1.6).

  3. Silver (SLV) beat gold (GLD) by 11.0 pp (z 2.0)

    Silver beat gold by 11.0 pp; no tested cause had enough supporting evidence in other assets.

    No tested cause passed the checks for this move.

  4. Software (IGV) lost 9.9% (z -2.0)

    Software lost 9.9% on AI-bubble fears: Oracle −1.52 pp and Palantir −1.47 pp (current weights).

    • AI-bubble fears hit software (Oracle, Palantir) (score 12.0). Supported by: ORCL contribution to IGV −1.5 pp; PLTR contribution to IGV −1.5 pp; ORCL shares −23.1% (z -2.5); Tech (XLK) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) −9.8 pp (z -2.2). IGV holdings: top contributors ORCL -1.52 pp, PLTR -1.47 pp, PANW -1.12 pp; by sector Technology -8.62 pp, Communication Services -0.20 pp. The top holdings (83.8% of the fund) add up to -8.83 pp. Current weights used for every month: an approximation.

  5. Bitcoin lagged gold (GLD) by 22.9 pp (z -1.7)

    Bitcoin lagged gold by 22.9 pp as crypto sold off with the AI trade (ether −22.2%).

    • Crypto sold off with the AI trade while gold held (score 6.6). Supported by: Tech (XLK) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) −9.8 pp (z -2.2); Bitcoin vs S&P 500 (SPY) −17.7 pp (z -1.6); Bitcoin (USD) −17.5% (z -1.6); Ethereum (USD) −22.2% (z -1.3).

Not investment advice. MarketMoves describes past market data and reported news for general information. Figures can be delayed or wrong; check the original source before relying on them.