Bitcoin (USD): the last 12 months

Bitcoin is down 20.7% over 1Y and 35.5% below its high, though its 90-day change is +25.1%. It gained 25.1% in August in a hard-asset trade with gold, then lost 7.0% over the last month as risk appetite cooled. Status quo for crypto: intact, out of favour.

Status quo card: Bitcoin (USD), intact.

Month by month

Computed in code. Change: the calendar-month change (z against its own monthly history). 90-day: the trailing 90-day change at the month-end. Rank: its place among that month's biggest moves. Causes: the surviving monthly causes acting on it (a force's loading on this asset times the month's fitted strength, in standard deviations). ETF holdings use current weights (an approximation).

MonthChange90-dayRankCauses
November 2026 (month to date)+3.9% (z 0.6)+25.1%none of the surviving causes loads on it
October 2026−7.3% (z -0.8)+21.9%none of the surviving causes loads on it
September 2026+6.4% (z 0.2)+35.9%none of the surviving causes loads on it
August 2026+25.1% (z 1.5)+17.9%Hard-asset / debasement trade: bitcoin rallied with gold and silver (drove: Bitcoin beat S&P 500 (SPY) by 22.4 pp, score 5.2); Hard-asset / debasement trade: ether rallied with bitcoin and gold (evidence +25.1%, z 1.5); Hard-asset / debasement trade lifted gold, silver and crypto together (evidence +25.1%, z 1.5); Dovish Fed repricing +0.1 sd; Precious metals were bid in the hard-asset trade, so gold outran copper (evidence +25.1%, z 1.5)
July 2026+7.3% (z 0.3)−20.2%none of the surviving causes loads on it
June 2026−20.5% (z -1.7)−14.1%Hawkish first FOMC under Warsh and a stronger dollar (evidence −20.5%, z -1.7); Real-yield shock -0.5 sd; A US-Iran deal and a hawkish Fed removed the crisis hedges (evidence −20.5%, z -1.7)
May 2026−3.6% (z -0.5)+6.9%none of the surviving causes loads on it
April 2026+11.8% (z 0.6)−9.3%none of the surviving causes loads on it
March 2026+1.9% (z -0.1)−22.0%Hawkish Fed repricing -0.6 sd; Real-yield shock -0.0 sd
February 2026−14.8% (z -1.4)−25.9%none of the surviving causes loads on it
January 2026−10.1% (z -1.1)−28.8%none of the surviving causes loads on it
December 2025−3.2% (z -0.6)−27.5%none of the surviving causes loads on it
November 2025−17.5% (z -1.6)−17.3%Real-yield shock -0.2 sd; Crypto sold off with the AI trade while gold held (drove: Bitcoin lagged gold (GLD) by 22.9 pp, score 6.6)

What drove each month · All assets

Not investment advice. MarketMoves describes past market data and reported news for general information. Figures can be delayed or wrong; check the original source before relying on them.