Commodities (DBC): the last 12 months

Commodities (DBC) are up 41.2% over 1Y and 8.2% below their high; the 90-day change is +8.4% after +21.6% at the end of September. Oil's war premium drove the gain; oil supply relief after the midterms cut 6.9% in early November. No status quo card for this group.

Month by month

Computed in code. Change: the calendar-month change (z against its own monthly history). 90-day: the trailing 90-day change at the month-end. Rank: its place among that month's biggest moves. Causes: the surviving monthly causes acting on it (a force's loading on this asset times the month's fitted strength, in standard deviations). ETF holdings use current weights (an approximation).

MonthChange90-dayRankCauses
November 2026 (month to date)−6.9% (z -3.9)+8.4%3Trend-following funds cut oil longs as crude collapsed after the midterms (evidence −6.9%, z -3.9); Oil supply relief -1.7 sd
October 2026+4.0% (z 0.6)+14.1%none of the surviving causes loads on it
September 2026+3.3% (z 0.4)+21.6%none of the surviving causes loads on it
August 2026+6.3% (z 1.1)+3.9%none of the surviving causes loads on it
July 2026+10.5% (z 2.1)−4.4%none of the surviving causes loads on it
June 2026−9.6% (z -2.5)−7.0%4Inflation pressure easing -1.6 sd; Oil supply relief -0.2 sd
May 2026−5.2% (z -1.5)+14.2%Trend followers hit as oil swung sharply lower into month-end (evidence −5.2%, z -1.5)
April 2026+7.4% (z 1.5)+27.3%none of the surviving causes loads on it
March 2026+15.3% (z 4.4)+29.5%3War with Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz: the largest oil supply disruption on record (evidence +15.3%, z 4.4); Oil supply shock +4.9 sd; An oil-led commodity shock with hawkish repricing: gold fell as yields and the dollar rose (explains this move, score 13.1); Inflation scare +0.0 sd
February 2026+2.7% (z 0.7)+12.5%none of the surviving causes loads on it
January 2026+9.3% (z 2.9)+10.3%1Inflation scare +0.8 sd; Oil supply shock +1.1 sd; Geopolitical risk lifted oil (evidence +9.3%, z 2.9)
December 2025+0.2% (z 0.0)+3.4%none of the surviving causes loads on it
November 2025+0.8% (z 0.2)+3.8%none of the surviving causes loads on it

What drove each month · All assets

Not investment advice. MarketMoves describes past market data and reported news for general information. Figures can be delayed or wrong; check the original source before relying on them.