Gold (GLD ETF): the last 12 months
Gold (GLD) is up 2.8% over 1Y and 24.9% below its high; its 90-day change is −4.4%. It gained 9.9% in August in a hard-asset trade, fell in September's real-yield jump and again in October, then rose in early November. Status quo for commodities: shifting.
Status quo card: Gold (GLD ETF), shifting.
Month by month
| Month | Change | 90-day | Rank | Causes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 2026 (month to date) | +4.7% (z 2.1) | −4.4% | none of the surviving causes loads on it | |
| October 2026 | −6.6% (z -1.6) | −4.2% | none of the surviving causes loads on it | |
| September 2026 | −6.8% (z -1.7) | +0.7% | Real yields jumped with the hike and strong data, so TIPS fell (evidence −6.8%, z -1.7) | |
| August 2026 | +9.9% (z 1.5) | −0.9% | 4 | Hard-asset / debasement trade: bitcoin rallied with gold and silver (evidence +9.9%, z 1.5); Hard-asset / debasement trade: ether rallied with bitcoin and gold (evidence +9.9%, z 1.5); Hard-asset / debasement trade lifted gold, silver and crypto together (explains this move, score 5.3); Dovish Fed repricing +0.1 sd; Precious metals were bid in the hard-asset trade, so gold outran copper (drove: Copper (CPER) lagged gold (GLD) by 8.8 pp, score 5.2) |
| July 2026 | +0.9% (z -0.2) | −12.2% | none of the surviving causes loads on it | |
| June 2026 | −11.7% (z -3.0) | −15.9% | 1 | Hawkish first FOMC under Warsh and a stronger dollar (explains this move, score 9.3); Inflation pressure easing -0.5 sd; Real-yield shock -0.3 sd; A US-Iran deal and a hawkish Fed removed the crisis hedges (evidence −11.7%, z -3.0); Trend followers were caught by the reversal in oil and metals (evidence −11.7%, z -3.0) |
| May 2026 | −1.5% (z -0.8) | −14.9% | none of the surviving causes loads on it | |
| April 2026 | −1.5% (z -0.9) | −4.8% | none of the surviving causes loads on it | |
| March 2026 | −11.1% (z -3.4) | +8.6% | 4 | An oil-led commodity shock with hawkish repricing: gold fell as yields and the dollar rose (evidence −11.1%, z -3.4); Inflation scare +0.0 sd; Hawkish Fed repricing -0.6 sd; Real-yield shock -0.0 sd |
| February 2026 | +8.7% (z 1.4) | +24.7% | Utilities led as Treasury yields fell and investors sought safety (evidence +8.7%, z 1.4) | |
| January 2026 | +12.3% (z 2.5) | +20.9% | 5 | Inflation scare +0.5 sd; A weak dollar and geopolitical risk drove gold and emerging markets (explains this move, score 7.3) |
| December 2025 | +2.2% (z -0.1) | +11.7% | Industrial-metal squeeze: silver and copper hit records after the cut (drove: Silver (SLV) beat gold (GLD) by 23.6 pp, score 5.6); Industrial-metal squeeze lifted copper and silver above gold (drove: Copper (CPER) beat gold (GLD) by 6.1 pp, score 7.2) | |
| November 2025 | +5.4% (z 0.7) | +21.9% | Real-yield shock -0.1 sd; Crypto sold off with the AI trade while gold held (drove: Bitcoin lagged gold (GLD) by 22.9 pp, score 6.6) |
What drove each month · All assets
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