Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): the last 12 months
The Nasdaq 100 is up 12.3% over 1Y but 8.9% below its high, with a 90-day change of −3.1% after +3.9% at the end of September. October's AI capex doubts drove the drop as the platforms reported negative free cash flow and chips fell. Status quo for US equity: intact, with value ahead of growth.
Status quo card: Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), intact.
Month by month
| Month | Change | 90-day | Rank | Causes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 2026 (month to date) | +0.2% (z -0.0) | −3.1% | none of the surviving causes loads on it | |
| October 2026 | −6.7% (z -1.8) | +0.5% | AI capex doubts: rotation out of AI platforms and chips into dividend payers (drove: Dividend (SCHD) beat Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) by 16.6 pp, score 14.8); Defensive rotation lifted SCHD's staples and health care holdings (drove: Dividend (SCHD) beat Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) by 16.6 pp, score 13.2); High oil prices lifted SCHD's energy holdings (oil supply shock) (drove: Dividend (SCHD) beat Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) by 16.6 pp, score 10.0); AI spending outran cash flow: Alphabet and Meta sold off (evidence −6.7%, z -1.8) | |
| September 2026 | +3.3% (z 0.3) | +3.9% | none of the surviving causes loads on it | |
| August 2026 | +4.2% (z 0.5) | −3.8% | none of the surviving causes loads on it | |
| July 2026 | −6.6% (z -1.8) | +2.2% | Chip selloff and rotation into old-economy sectors weighed on the Nasdaq 100 (drove: Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) lagged S&P 500 (SPY) by 6.6 pp, score 11.4); Rotation from chips into old-economy stocks, with SCHD's energy holdings lifted by oil (drove: Dividend (SCHD) beat Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) by 12.1 pp, score 15.2); Broad rotation from tech momentum into old-economy blue chips (drove: Dow (DIA) beat Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) by 7.0 pp, score 8.8) Top holdings by contribution: MSFT +1.50 pp, MU -1.36 pp, SPCX -0.97 pp. Sectors: Technology -1.61 pp, Industrials -0.97 pp, Consumer Cyclical -0.26 pp (current weights, an approximation). | |
| June 2026 | −0.1% (z -0.5) | +26.2% | none of the surviving causes loads on it | |
| May 2026 | +10.6% (z 1.7) | +21.6% | Mega-cap tech strength put the Nasdaq 100 ahead (drove: Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) beat S&P 500 (SPY) by 5.3 pp, score 10.9) Top holdings by contribution: MU +4.16 pp, AMD +1.84 pp, AAPL +1.17 pp. Sectors: Technology +11.90 pp, Consumer Cyclical +0.56 pp, Consumer Defensive -0.40 pp (current weights, an approximation). | |
| April 2026 | +15.7% (z 3.2) | +7.5% | 3 | Ceasefire relief plus AI earnings: the Nasdaq 100's best month in decades (explains this move, score 13.6) Top holdings by contribution: AMD +2.99 pp, MU +2.52 pp, INTC +2.44 pp. Sectors: Technology +12.78 pp, Communication Services +2.07 pp, Consumer Cyclical +1.24 pp (current weights, an approximation). |
| March 2026 | −4.8% (z -1.6) | −5.9% | none of the surviving causes loads on it | |
| February 2026 | −2.3% (z -1.1) | −1.8% | none of the surviving causes loads on it | |
| January 2026 | +1.2% (z -0.3) | −1.0% | none of the surviving causes loads on it | |
| December 2025 | −0.7% (z -0.6) | +1.5% | none of the surviving causes loads on it | |
| November 2025 | −1.6% (z -0.8) | +8.7% | none of the surviving causes loads on it |
What drove each month · All assets
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