2s10s spread: the last 12 months

The 2s10s curve is at +32 bp, down 20 bp over 1Y; its 90-day change is −12 bp. The Fed hike flattened it in September as the 2-year led the rise. Status quo for rates: challenged.

Status quo card: 2s10s spread, challenged.

Month by month

Computed in code. Change: the calendar-month change (z against its own monthly history). 90-day: the trailing 90-day change at the month-end. Rank: its place among that month's biggest moves. Causes: the surviving monthly causes acting on it (a force's loading on this asset times the month's fitted strength, in standard deviations). ETF holdings use current weights (an approximation).

Month	Change	90-day	Causes
November 2026 (month to date)	−6 bp (z -1.4)	−12 bp	none of the surviving causes loads on it
October 2026	−3 bp (z -0.4)	−9 bp	none of the surviving causes loads on it
September 2026	0 bp (z -0.2)	+6 bp	none of the surviving causes loads on it
August 2026	−6 bp (z -0.8)	0 bp	Dovish Fed repricing +0.1 sd
July 2026	+17 bp (z 1.0)	−4 bp	none of the surviving causes loads on it
June 2026	−17 bp (z -1.5)	−22 bp	Hawkish first FOMC under Warsh and a stronger dollar (evidence −17 bp, z -1.5); Inflation pressure easing -0.5 sd
May 2026	−5 bp (z -0.6)	−11 bp	none of the surviving causes loads on it
April 2026	+1 bp (z -0.1)	−22 bp	none of the surviving causes loads on it
March 2026	−8 bp (z -0.8)	−20 bp	Inflation scare +0.0 sd; Hawkish Fed repricing -0.9 sd
February 2026	−15 bp (z -1.3)	+4 bp	none of the surviving causes loads on it
January 2026	+3 bp (z -0.0)	+23 bp	Inflation scare +0.3 sd
December 2025	+16 bp (z 0.8)	+16 bp	none of the surviving causes loads on it
November 2025	+4 bp (z 0.1)	−9 bp	none of the surviving causes loads on it

What drove each month · All assets

Not investment advice. MarketMoves describes past market data and reported news for general information. Figures can be delayed or wrong; check the original source before relying on them.