S&P 500 (SPY): the last 12 months

The S&P 500 is up 14.8% over 1Y and 1.6% below its high, flat over 90 days (0.0%). October's AI capex doubts cost it little because defensives and energy offset tech; early November brought a relief rally as oil fell. Status quo for US equity: intact (value and dividend payers lead).

Status quo card: S&P 500 (SPY), intact.

Month by month

Computed in code. Change: the calendar-month change (z against its own monthly history). 90-day: the trailing 90-day change at the month-end. Rank: its place among that month's biggest moves. Causes: the surviving monthly causes acting on it (a force's loading on this asset times the month's fitted strength, in standard deviations). ETF holdings use current weights (an approximation).

MonthChange90-dayRankCauses
November 2026 (month to date)+1.5% (z 0.9)0.0%Oil supply relief +0.6 sd
October 2026−0.9% (z -0.8)+1.4%AI capex / profitability doubts -0.6 sd
September 2026−0.3% (z -0.5)+2.7%none of the surviving causes loads on it
August 2026+2.7% (z 0.3)+1.2%Hard-asset / debasement trade: bitcoin rallied with gold and silver (drove: Bitcoin beat S&P 500 (SPY) by 22.4 pp, score 5.2); Dovish Fed repricing +0.0 sd
July 20260.0% (z -0.4)+3.9%Chip selloff and rotation into old-economy sectors weighed on the Nasdaq 100 (drove: Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) lagged S&P 500 (SPY) by 6.6 pp, score 11.4); Chip and memory momentum unwind, while platform leaders like Microsoft held up (drove: Semiconductors (SMH) lagged S&P 500 (SPY) by 17.6 pp, score 13.4); AI capex / profitability doubts -0.3 sd
June 2026−1.0% (z -0.8)+14.3%Inflation pressure easing +0.5 sd; Real-yield shock -0.3 sd; Oil supply relief +0.1 sd
May 2026+5.3% (z 0.9)+10.5%Mega-cap tech strength put the Nasdaq 100 ahead (drove: Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) beat S&P 500 (SPY) by 5.3 pp, score 10.9)
April 2026+10.5% (z 2.6)+4.1%Ceasefire relief plus AI earnings: the Nasdaq 100's best month in decades (evidence +10.5%, z 2.6); AI optimism +0.6 sd
March 2026−4.9% (z -2.0)−4.4%Oil supply shock -1.6 sd; Inflation scare -0.0 sd; Hawkish Fed repricing -0.3 sd; Real-yield shock -0.0 sd
February 2026−0.9% (z -0.8)+0.7%AI capex / profitability doubts -0.5 sd; Rotation away from US mega-cap tech toward markets abroad (Korea) (drove: Emerging (EEM) beat S&P 500 (SPY) by 6.8 pp, score 7.4)
January 2026+1.5% (z -0.1)+1.8%Inflation scare -0.3 sd; Oil supply shock -0.4 sd
December 2025+0.1% (z -0.4)+2.2%none of the surviving causes loads on it
November 2025+0.2% (z -0.4)+6.2%AI capex / profitability doubts -0.3 sd; Real-yield shock -0.1 sd

What drove each month · All assets

Not investment advice. MarketMoves describes past market data and reported news for general information. Figures can be delayed or wrong; check the original source before relying on them.