US 10Y: the last 12 months

The 10-year yield is up 80 bp over 1Y at 4.90%; its 90-day change is +21 bp after +80 bp at the end of September. Strong data, high oil and heavy supply pushed it up in September; October's bond rally pulled it back 38 bp over the last month. Status quo for rates: challenged.

Status quo card: US 10Y, challenged.

Month by month

Computed in code. Change: the calendar-month change (z against its own monthly history). 90-day: the trailing 90-day change at the month-end. Rank: its place among that month's biggest moves. Causes: the surviving monthly causes acting on it (a force's loading on this asset times the month's fitted strength, in standard deviations). ETF holdings use current weights (an approximation).

Month	Change	90-day	Causes
November 2026 (month to date)	−4 bp (z -0.4)	+21 bp	Oil supply relief -0.6 sd
October 2026	−35 bp (z -1.4)	+19 bp	Flight to defensives as yields fell and bonds rallied (evidence −35 bp, z -1.4)
September 2026	+54 bp (z 2.0)	+80 bp	Rate shock with wider high-yield spreads (evidence +54 bp, z 2.0); Real yields jumped with the hike and strong data, so TIPS fell (evidence +54 bp, z 2.0); Strong data, high oil prices and heavy supply pushed long real yields to highs (evidence +54 bp, z 2.0)
August 2026	0 bp (z -0.1)	+29 bp	Dovish Fed repricing -0.1 sd
July 2026	+31 bp (z 1.2)	+36 bp	none of the surviving causes loads on it
June 2026	−1 bp (z -0.1)	+11 bp	Inflation pressure easing -1.6 sd; Real-yield shock +0.8 sd; Oil supply relief -0.1 sd
May 2026	+5 bp (z 0.1)	+40 bp	none of the surviving causes loads on it
April 2026	+10 bp (z 0.3)	+14 bp	none of the surviving causes loads on it
March 2026	+33 bp (z 1.3)	+12 bp	Oil supply shock +1.6 sd; Inflation scare +0.0 sd; Hawkish Fed repricing +0.6 sd; Real-yield shock +0.0 sd
February 2026	−29 bp (z -1.2)	−5 bp	none of the surviving causes loads on it
January 2026	+8 bp (z 0.3)	+15 bp	Inflation scare +0.8 sd; Oil supply shock +0.4 sd
December 2025	+16 bp (z 0.6)	+8 bp	none of the surviving causes loads on it
November 2025	−9 bp (z -0.3)	−21 bp	Real-yield shock +0.3 sd

What drove each month · All assets

Not investment advice. MarketMoves describes past market data and reported news for general information. Figures can be delayed or wrong; check the original source before relying on them.