US 2Y: the last 12 months

The 2-year yield is up 100 bp over 1Y at 4.58%; its 90-day change is +33 bp, down from +74 bp at the end of September. It jumped 54 bp in September with the Fed hike, then fell 25 bp over the last month as bonds rallied. Status quo for rates: challenged.

Status quo card: US 2Y, challenged.

Month by month

Computed in code. Change: the calendar-month change (z against its own monthly history). 90-day: the trailing 90-day change at the month-end. Rank: its place among that month's biggest moves. Causes: the surviving monthly causes acting on it (a force's loading on this asset times the month's fitted strength, in standard deviations). ETF holdings use current weights (an approximation).

Month	Change	90-day	Causes
November 2026 (month to date)	+2 bp (z 0.2)	+33 bp	none of the surviving causes loads on it
October 2026	−32 bp (z -1.2)	+28 bp	none of the surviving causes loads on it
September 2026	+54 bp (z 2.2)	+74 bp	The Fed's first hike since 2023 and signals of another (evidence +54 bp, z 2.2); The Fed's first hike since 2023 lifted overnight funding rates (evidence +54 bp, z 2.2); Strong data, high oil prices and heavy supply pushed long real yields to highs (evidence +54 bp, z 2.2)
August 2026	+6 bp (z 0.3)	+29 bp	Dovish Fed repricing -0.2 sd
July 2026	+14 bp (z 0.7)	+40 bp	none of the surviving causes loads on it
June 2026	+16 bp (z 0.7)	+33 bp	none of the surviving causes loads on it
May 2026	+10 bp (z 0.4)	+51 bp	none of the surviving causes loads on it
April 2026	+9 bp (z 0.4)	+36 bp	none of the surviving causes loads on it
March 2026	+41 bp (z 1.6)	+32 bp	An oil-led commodity shock with hawkish repricing: gold fell as yields and the dollar rose (evidence +41 bp, z 1.6); Hawkish Fed repricing +1.2 sd
February 2026	−14 bp (z -0.4)	−9 bp	none of the surviving causes loads on it
January 2026	+5 bp (z 0.2)	−8 bp	none of the surviving causes loads on it
December 2025	0 bp (z 0.1)	−8 bp	none of the surviving causes loads on it
November 2025	−13 bp (z -0.3)	−12 bp	none of the surviving causes loads on it

What drove each month · All assets

Not investment advice. MarketMoves describes past market data and reported news for general information. Figures can be delayed or wrong; check the original source before relying on them.