US 3M bill: the last 12 months

The 3-month bill yield is up 25 bp over 1Y at 4.21%; its 90-day change is +31 bp. It rose 29 bp in September with the Fed's first hike since 2023 and signals of another. Status quo for rates: challenged, higher for longer.

Status quo card: US 3M bill, challenged.

Month by month

Computed in code. Change: the calendar-month change (z against its own monthly history). 90-day: the trailing 90-day change at the month-end. Rank: its place among that month's biggest moves. Causes: the surviving monthly causes acting on it (a force's loading on this asset times the month's fitted strength, in standard deviations). ETF holdings use current weights (an approximation).

Month	Change	90-day	Rank	Causes
November 2026 (month to date)	+5 bp (z 1.1)	+31 bp		none of the surviving causes loads on it
October 2026	−4 bp (z -0.0)	+33 bp		none of the surviving causes loads on it
September 2026	+29 bp (z 2.9)	+38 bp	1	The Fed's first hike since 2023 and signals of another (explains this move, score 8.3); The Fed's first hike since 2023 lifted overnight funding rates (evidence +29 bp, z 2.9)
August 2026	+8 bp (z 1.1)	+14 bp		none of the surviving causes loads on it
July 2026	−4 bp (z 0.0)	+15 bp		none of the surviving causes loads on it
June 2026	+18 bp (z 2.1)	+17 bp		Hawkish first FOMC under Warsh and a stronger dollar (evidence +18 bp, z 2.1)
May 2026	+1 bp (z 0.4)	−3 bp		none of the surviving causes loads on it
April 2026	−2 bp (z 0.1)	+1 bp		none of the surviving causes loads on it
March 2026	+3 bp (z 0.4)	+3 bp		none of the surviving causes loads on it
February 2026	0 bp (z 0.2)	−21 bp		none of the surviving causes loads on it
January 2026	0 bp (z 0.1)	−22 bp		none of the surviving causes loads on it
December 2025	−21 bp (z -1.3)	−35 bp	5	The Fed's third consecutive cut lowered funding and bill rates and favoured cyclicals (evidence −21 bp, z -1.3); The Fed's third consecutive cut lowered bill yields and favoured cyclicals (explains this move, score 3.8)
November 2025	−1 bp (z -0.0)	−35 bp		none of the surviving causes loads on it

What drove each month · All assets

Not investment advice. MarketMoves describes past market data and reported news for general information. Figures can be delayed or wrong; check the original source before relying on them.