WTI crude (spot): the last 12 months

WTI crude is up 61.3% over 1Y and 19.4% below its high; its 90-day change is +26.3%. The Iran war kept a supply-shock premium in oil all year; after the midterms, Iran ceasefire hopes pulled it back. Status quo for commodities: shifting, from a war-driven supply shock.

Status quo card: WTI crude (spot), shifting.

Month by month

Computed in code. Change: the calendar-month change (z against its own monthly history). 90-day: the trailing 90-day change at the month-end. Rank: its place among that month's biggest moves. Causes: the surviving monthly causes acting on it (a force's loading on this asset times the month's fitted strength, in standard deviations). ETF holdings use current weights (an approximation).

Month	Change	90-day	Causes
November 2026 (month to date)	−7.4% (z -1.6)	+26.3%	Trend-following funds cut oil longs as crude collapsed after the midterms (evidence −7.4%, z -1.6); Oil's war premium unwound on Iran ceasefire hopes, dragging energy shares (evidence −7.4%, z -1.6); Oil supply relief -2.2 sd; Cheaper oil and lower breakevens lifted consumer stocks (evidence −7.4%, z -1.6)
October 2026	+10.7% (z 0.8)	+24.8%	none of the surviving causes loads on it
September 2026	+11.7% (z 0.9)	+39.4%	none of the surviving causes loads on it
August 2026	+1.0% (z 0.0)	−10.7%	none of the surviving causes loads on it
July 2026	+22.1% (z 1.8)	−18.2%	none of the surviving causes loads on it
June 2026	−22.6% (z -2.1)	−30.8%	Inflation pressure easing -1.1 sd; A US-Iran deal and a hawkish Fed removed the crisis hedges (evidence −22.6%, z -2.1); Trend followers were caught by the reversal in oil and metals (evidence −22.6%, z -2.1); Oil supply relief -0.3 sd
May 2026	−16.1% (z -1.6)	+28.2%	Trend followers hit as oil swung sharply lower into month-end (evidence −16.1%, z -1.6)
April 2026	+5.6% (z 0.4)	+68.4%	none of the surviving causes loads on it
March 2026	+53.6% (z 7.7)	+79.6%	War with Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz: the largest oil supply disruption on record (evidence +53.6%, z 7.7); Oil supply shock +6.6 sd; An oil-led commodity shock with hawkish repricing: gold fell as yields and the dollar rose (evidence +53.6%, z 7.7); Inflation scare +0.0 sd
February 2026	+3.8% (z 0.6)	+14.3%	none of the surviving causes loads on it
January 2026	+12.6% (z 2.0)	+4.5%	Inflation scare +0.5 sd; Oil supply shock +1.5 sd; Geopolitical risk lifted oil (evidence +12.6%, z 2.0); Oil's rally lifted energy shares (ExxonMobil, Chevron) (evidence +12.6%, z 2.0)
December 2025	−2.2% (z -0.2)	−6.6%	none of the surviving causes loads on it
November 2025	−5.1% (z -0.7)	−9.0%	none of the surviving causes loads on it

What drove each month · All assets

Not investment advice. MarketMoves describes past market data and reported news for general information. Figures can be delayed or wrong; check the original source before relying on them.