Energy (XLE): the last 12 months

Energy (XLE) is up 49.8% over 1Y, 9.3% below its high; its 90-day change is +9.9%, down from +16.3% at the end of September. War-driven oil lifted it through October, then the war premium unwound in November as Iran ceasefire hopes rose (ExxonMobil −2.30 pp of the fund's drop). Status quo for sectors: intact.

Status quo card: Energy (XLE), intact.

Month by month

Computed in code. Change: the calendar-month change (z against its own monthly history). 90-day: the trailing 90-day change at the month-end. Rank: its place among that month's biggest moves. Causes: the surviving monthly causes acting on it (a force's loading on this asset times the month's fitted strength, in standard deviations). ETF holdings use current weights (an approximation).

Month	Change	90-day	Rank	Causes
November 2026 (month to date)	−9.3% (z -4.1)	+9.9%	2	Oil's war premium unwound on Iran ceasefire hopes, dragging energy shares (explains this move, score 14.7) Top holdings by contribution: XOM -2.30 pp, CVX -1.43 pp, COP -0.80 pp. Sectors: Energy -9.19 pp (current weights, an approximation).
October 2026	+13.8% (z 2.1)	+18.3%		High oil prices lifted SCHD's energy holdings (oil supply shock) (evidence +13.8%, z 2.1)
September 2026	−3.3% (z -0.8)	+16.3%		none of the surviving causes loads on it
August 2026	+7.4% (z 1.1)	+11.1%		none of the surviving causes loads on it
July 2026	+12.1% (z 2.0)	+1.9%		Rotation from chips into old-economy stocks, with SCHD's energy holdings lifted by oil (evidence +12.1%, z 2.0); Broad rotation from tech momentum into old-economy blue chips (evidence +12.1%, z 2.0)
June 2026	−5.0% (z -1.2)	−9.3%		none of the surviving causes loads on it
May 2026	−5.6% (z -1.2)	−0.7%		none of the surviving causes loads on it
April 2026	−2.6% (z -0.7)	+17.6%		none of the surviving causes loads on it
March 2026	+10.3% (z 1.6)	+37.9%		War with Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz: the largest oil supply disruption on record (evidence +10.3%, z 1.6); Oil supply shock (drove: Energy stocks (XLE) lagged WTI crude by 43.4 pp, score 12.1) Top holdings by contribution: XOM +2.69 pp, CVX +1.96 pp, COP +1.17 pp. Sectors: Energy +11.19 pp (current weights, an approximation).
February 2026	+9.5% (z 1.6)	+24.7%		none of the surviving causes loads on it
January 2026	+14.2% (z 2.7)	+16.8%	3	Geopolitical risk lifted oil (evidence +14.2%, z 2.7); Oil's rally lifted energy shares (ExxonMobil, Chevron) (explains this move, score 13.8) Top holdings by contribution: XOM +4.19 pp, CVX +2.92 pp, SLB +1.01 pp. Sectors: Energy +14.01 pp (current weights, an approximation).
December 2025	−0.3% (z -0.1)	+2.0%		none of the surviving causes loads on it
November 2025	+2.6% (z 0.5)	+0.9%		none of the surviving causes loads on it

What drove each month · All assets

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