Tech (XLK): the last 12 months
Tech (XLK) is up 20.7% over 1Y but 12.6% below its high; its 90-day change swung from +8.5% at the end of September to −4.7%. October's AI capex doubts drove the fall, and tech lagged defensives by 18.6 pp that month. Status quo for sectors: intact, defensives favoured over tech.
Status quo card: Tech (XLK), intact.
Month by month
| Month | Change | 90-day | Rank | Causes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 2026 (month to date) | −1.7% (z -0.8) | −4.7% | none of the surviving causes loads on it | |
| October 2026 | −8.3% (z -1.7) | +2.5% | AI capex / profitability doubts (drove: Tech (XLK) lagged defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 18.6 pp, score 16.4); Flight to defensives as yields fell and bonds rallied (drove: Tech (XLK) lagged defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 18.6 pp, score 13.7) | |
| September 2026 | +5.1% (z 0.4) | +8.5% | none of the surviving causes loads on it | |
| August 2026 | +6.4% (z 0.6) | −5.8% | none of the surviving causes loads on it | |
| July 2026 | −8.0% (z -1.6) | +8.5% | Chip selloff and rotation into old-economy sectors weighed on the Nasdaq 100 (evidence −8.0%, z -1.6) | |
| June 2026 | −0.1% (z -0.4) | +41.4% | none of the surviving causes loads on it | |
| May 2026 | +19.8% (z 3.0) | +37.1% | 3 | AI hardware rally while defensives lagged as yields rose (drove: Tech (XLK) beat defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 21.2 pp, score 9.0); AI hardware rally: memory and chip makers led tech (explains this move, score 12.7) Top holdings by contribution: MU +3.70 pp, AMD +2.23 pp, AAPL +2.17 pp. Sectors: Technology +17.99 pp (current weights, an approximation). |
| April 2026 | +20.0% (z 3.6) | +11.0% | 2 | Tech roared back on AI earnings and the ceasefire (explains this move, score 12.6); AI optimism (drove: Tech (XLK) beat defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 18.5 pp, score 15.3) Top holdings by contribution: AMD +3.63 pp, INTC +3.14 pp, MU +2.24 pp. Sectors: Technology +21.21 pp (current weights, an approximation). |
| March 2026 | −4.1% (z -1.2) | −7.6% | none of the surviving causes loads on it | |
| February 2026 | −3.6% (z -1.1) | −2.9% | AI capex / profitability doubts (drove: Tech (XLK) lagged defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 10.8 pp, score 12.4) Top holdings by contribution: NVDA -1.09 pp, MSFT -0.96 pp, AMD -0.75 pp. Sectors: Technology -3.42 pp (current weights, an approximation). | |
| January 2026 | −0.1% (z -0.5) | −4.2% | none of the surviving causes loads on it | |
| December 2025 | +0.8% (z -0.3) | +0.8% | none of the surviving causes loads on it | |
| November 2025 | −4.8% (z -1.4) | +9.2% | AI capex / profitability doubts (drove: Tech (XLK) lagged defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 9.8 pp, score 4.2); Real-yield shock (drove: Tech (XLK) lagged defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 9.8 pp, score 3.9); AI-bubble fears hit software (Oracle, Palantir) (evidence −4.8%, z -1.4) Top holdings by contribution: NVDA -1.88 pp, AMD -0.74 pp, MSFT -0.54 pp. Sectors: Technology -2.83 pp (current weights, an approximation). |
What drove each month · All assets
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