Utilities (XLU): the last 12 months

Utilities (XLU) are up 1.0% over 1Y; the 90-day change recovered from −13.2% at the end of September to +1.3%. They fell as yields rose in August and September, then rallied with bonds in October's defensive rotation. Status quo for sectors: intact.

Status quo card: Utilities (XLU), intact.

Month by month

Computed in code. Change: the calendar-month change (z against its own monthly history). 90-day: the trailing 90-day change at the month-end. Rank: its place among that month's biggest moves. Causes: the surviving monthly causes acting on it (a force's loading on this asset times the month's fitted strength, in standard deviations). ETF holdings use current weights (an approximation).

Month	Change	90-day	Rank	Causes
November 2026 (month to date)	+0.4% (z 0.1)	+1.3%		none of the surviving causes loads on it
October 2026	+10.1% (z 2.0)	−1.4%		Defensive rotation lifted SCHD's staples and health care holdings (evidence +10.1%, z 2.0); Defensive rotation: investors favoured steady earners as tech sold off (evidence +10.1%, z 2.0); AI capex / profitability doubts (drove: Tech (XLK) lagged defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 18.6 pp, score 16.4); Flight to defensives as yields fell and bonds rallied (drove: Tech (XLK) lagged defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 18.6 pp, score 13.7)
September 2026	−5.9% (z -1.6)	−13.2%		none of the surviving causes loads on it
August 2026	−4.8% (z -1.3)	−3.2%		none of the surviving causes loads on it
July 2026	−2.2% (z -0.8)	−4.1%		none of the surviving causes loads on it
June 2026	+2.7% (z 0.3)	−1.0%		none of the surviving causes loads on it
May 2026	−5.2% (z -1.4)	−5.6%		AI hardware rally while defensives lagged as yields rose (drove: Tech (XLK) beat defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 21.2 pp, score 9.0)
April 2026	+2.1% (z 0.2)	+9.1%		AI optimism (drove: Tech (XLK) beat defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 18.5 pp, score 15.3)
March 2026	−3.2% (z -1.1)	+8.2%		none of the surviving causes loads on it
February 2026	+10.4% (z 2.2)	+6.1%	5	AI-disruption angst and a flight to defensives: Amazon fell, staples rose (evidence +10.4%, z 2.2); AI capex / profitability doubts (drove: Tech (XLK) lagged defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 10.8 pp, score 12.4); Utilities led as Treasury yields fell and investors sought safety (explains this move, score 7.1)
January 2026	+1.3% (z 0.1)	−2.2%		none of the surviving causes loads on it
December 2025	−5.1% (z -1.5)	−2.1%	3	AI valuation doubts (Oracle, Broadcom) hit the AI-power trade in utilities (explains this move, score 5.0) Top holdings by contribution: NEE -0.88 pp, DUK -0.39 pp, AEP -0.36 pp. Sectors: Utilities -4.71 pp (current weights, an approximation).
November 2025	+1.7% (z 0.1)	+8.2%		AI capex / profitability doubts (drove: Tech (XLK) lagged defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 9.8 pp, score 4.2); Real-yield shock (drove: Tech (XLK) lagged defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 9.8 pp, score 3.9)

What drove each month · All assets

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