Health care (XLV): the last 12 months

Health care (XLV) is up 32.9% over 1Y and at a 5-year high; its 90-day change is +15.8%. It rose with the October defensive rotation as AI capex doubts hit tech and bonds rallied. Status quo for sectors: intact, defensives favoured.

Status quo card: Health care (XLV), intact.

Month by month

Computed in code. Change: the calendar-month change (z against its own monthly history). 90-day: the trailing 90-day change at the month-end. Rank: its place among that month's biggest moves. Causes: the surviving monthly causes acting on it (a force's loading on this asset times the month's fitted strength, in standard deviations). ETF holdings use current weights (an approximation).

MonthChange90-dayRankCauses
November 2026 (month to date)+2.6% (z 1.5)+15.8%none of the surviving causes loads on it
October 2026+9.8% (z 2.2)+14.2%Defensive rotation lifted SCHD's staples and health care holdings (evidence +9.8%, z 2.2); Defensive rotation: investors favoured steady earners as tech sold off (evidence +9.8%, z 2.2); AI capex / profitability doubts (drove: Tech (XLK) lagged defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 18.6 pp, score 16.4); Flight to defensives as yields fell and bonds rallied (drove: Tech (XLK) lagged defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 18.6 pp, score 13.7)
September 2026−0.9% (z -0.4)+3.2%none of the surviving causes loads on it
August 2026+4.9% (z 1.0)+17.0%none of the surviving causes loads on it
July 2026+2.5% (z 0.4)+12.5%none of the surviving causes loads on it
June 2026+6.6% (z 1.5)+7.9%none of the surviving causes loads on it
May 2026+2.4% (z 0.5)−5.3%AI hardware rally while defensives lagged as yields rose (drove: Tech (XLK) beat defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 21.2 pp, score 9.0)
April 2026−0.4% (z -0.2)−5.3%AI optimism (drove: Tech (XLK) beat defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 18.5 pp, score 15.3)
March 2026−8.1% (z -2.4)−4.9%none of the surviving causes loads on it
February 2026+3.5% (z 0.8)+2.0%AI capex / profitability doubts (drove: Tech (XLK) lagged defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 10.8 pp, score 12.4)
January 20260.0% (z -0.2)+7.7%none of the surviving causes loads on it
December 2025−1.4% (z -0.5)+8.6%none of the surviving causes loads on it
November 2025+9.3% (z 2.4)+15.2%1Rotation from AI into health care (Eli Lilly, Merck) (explains this move, score 12.1); AI capex / profitability doubts (drove: Tech (XLK) lagged defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 9.8 pp, score 4.2); Real-yield shock (drove: Tech (XLK) lagged defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) by 9.8 pp, score 3.9) Top holdings by contribution: LLY +3.75 pp, MRK +1.29 pp, JNJ +1.04 pp. Sectors: Healthcare +9.11 pp (current weights, an approximation).

What drove each month · All assets

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