Liquidity and crowding: Wednesday, November 4, 2026

Net liquidity flat, −$10 bn over 3M; global CB liquidity (Fed+ECB+BoJ) flat, −1.7% over 3M; M2 5.71% y/y; NFCI −0.52 (last published 2026-04-24); AI crowding: no clear signal (0 of 3 crowding, 2 of 3 unwinding conditions); AI share of dollar volume 42.0%.

How much money the central banks and the Treasury leave in the financial system, how loose financial conditions are, and where trading is concentrating. Back to the 2026-11-04 market moves page.

Liquidity now

US net liquidity = Fed total assets minus the Treasury General Account minus overnight reverse repo, aligned daily (the latest weekly Fed level on or before each day). Global central-bank liquidity: Fed + ECB + BoJ in USD. Changes are over 30, 91 and 182 calendar days to the latest data. State: expanding, contracting or flat on the 3M change against fixed thresholds (for the TGA, reverse repo and NFCI, the effect on liquidity: a falling balance or index counts as expanding); speed: the latest month against the 3M average pace. Units are in each row label; cells carry no suffix.

Liquidity metrics now
Metric	Level	1M	3M	6M	State	Speed	Data date
US net liquidity (Fed total assets - TGA - ON RRP) ($ tn; changes $ bn)	5.81	−51	−10	−38	flat	accelerating	2026-11-04
Fed total assets (H.4.1) ($ tn; changes $ bn)	6.75	−2	+7	+46	flat	decelerating	2026-10-28
Bank reserve balances (H.4.1) ($ tn; changes $ bn)	2.90	−75	−49	−24	flat	accelerating	2026-10-28
Treasury General Account (a rise drains liquidity) ($ tn; changes $ bn)	0.94	+67	+14	+78	flat	accelerating	2026-11-03
Overnight reverse repo (a fall releases liquidity) ($ bn; changes $ bn)	0.2	−0.8	−1.4	−1.4	flat	accelerating	2026-11-04
Global central-bank liquidity (Fed + ECB + BoJ, USD) ($ tn; changes %)	17.36	−0.2	−1.7	−4.6	flat	decelerating	2026-11-04
Chicago Fed NFCI (negative = looser than average) (index; changes in points)	−0.52	−0.06	+0.05	0.00	flat	decelerating	2026-04-24 (stale)
Chicago Fed ANFCI (adjusted for the cycle) (index; changes in points)	−0.49	−0.07	+0.05	+0.07	flat	decelerating	2026-04-24 (stale)

US M2
Metric	Level, $ tn	Year over year, %	3M annualised, %	State	Speed	Data date
US M2 (H.6, seasonally adjusted)	23.41	5.71	5.96	flat	steady	2026-09-30

Funding plumbing

Funding plumbing
Measure	Value	State or date
SOFR, % (New York Fed)	3.97	2026-11-03
Interest on reserve balances (IORB), % (Federal Reserve)	3.90	effective 2026-09-17
SOFR minus IORB, bp (above zero = reserves getting scarcer)	+7	contracting
Overnight reverse repo balance, effect on liquidity over 3M	0.2	flat

Month-end table

Same layout as the main asset table. First table: the trailing 90-day change at the latest data (Last) and at each month-end (M2: its year-over-year growth, a percentage, at each date). Second table: the change since the previous month-end (Last against Oct 31, the oldest column against Oct 31 2025); for M2 the change in its year-over-year level, in percentage points. Units are in each row label; cells carry no suffix; hover or focus a change cell for both values with units. n/a: no data within the series' release cadence.

Trailing 90-day change at Last and month-ends
Metric	Last	Oct 31	Sep 30	Aug 31	Jul 31	Jun 30	May 31	Apr 30	Mar 31	Feb 28	Jan 31	Dec 31	Nov 30
US net liquidity ($ bn) (90-day change, $ bn; Δ $ bn)	+22	−70	−204	−135	+17	−80	+47	+38	+87	+210	+76	−93	−381
Global CB liquidity (Fed + ECB + BoJ, USD) (90-day change, %; Δ pp)	−1.7	−1.7	−1.1	−2.2	−2.9	−1.7	−1.3	−1.1	−1.7	+1.1	+0.9	−0.8	−1.7
US M2 year over year (level %; Δ level, pp)	5.71	5.71	5.71	5.60	5.36	5.30	5.37	4.53	4.42	4.59	4.06	4.04	3.84
Chicago Fed NFCI (90-day change, index points; Δ points)	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	+0.04	+0.08	+0.01	−0.05	−0.01	+0.02

Δ vs prior month-end

Change since the previous month-end
Metric	Last	Oct 31	Sep 30	Aug 31	Jul 31	Jun 30	May 31	Apr 30	Mar 31	Feb 28	Jan 31	Dec 31	Nov 30
US net liquidity ($ bn) (90-day change, $ bn; Δ $ bn)	+92	+134	−69	−152	+97	−127	+9	−49	−123	+134	+169	+288	+177
Global CB liquidity (Fed + ECB + BoJ, USD) (90-day change, %; Δ pp)	0.0	−0.6	+1.1	+0.7	−1.2	−0.4	−0.2	+0.6	−2.8	+0.2	+1.7	+0.9	−0.9
US M2 year over year (level %; Δ level, pp)	0.00	0.00	+0.11	+0.24	+0.06	−0.07	+0.84	+0.11	−0.17	+0.53	+0.02	+0.20	−0.44
Chicago Fed NFCI (90-day change, index points; Δ points)	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	−0.04	+0.07	+0.06	−0.04	−0.03	+0.01

Crowding: where trading concentrates

Volume-based proxies, not fund-flow data: dollar volume = close x shares traded (Alpha Vantage), summed over 21 sessions. Theme share = the theme's dollar volume as a share of all tracked US equity ETFs (US equity, sector and theme rows) plus the AI basket stocks and the other mega-caps. Volume-based proxies, not fund-flow data. Crowding into a theme: its volume share and relative performance rise while breadth narrows; unwinding: the reverse.

Theme dollar-volume shares
Theme	Share of dollar volume, %	1M change, pp	3M change, pp	z vs 1 year	Relative to SPY 1M, pp	Relative to SPY 3M, pp	Crowding state
AI leaders basket + semiconductors (SMH)	42.0	−0.4	−1.3	+0.7	−13.0	−8.7	no clear crowding signal
Other mega-caps (AAPL, TSLA)	14.5	+0.6	0.0	−0.4	+4.5	+16.2	no clear crowding signal

Breadth

Breadth
Measure	1M (or now)	3M (or 1M earlier)
Equal-weight minus cap-weight S&P 500 (RSP - SPY), pp	+6.8	+2.5
Sectors above their 3-month average, % of 11 (now; 1M earlier)	64	36
Cross-sector dispersion of 1M returns, pp (now; 1M earlier)	8.4	3.9

Neglected assets

The weakest 3M performers against SPY whose share of all tracked-ETF dollar volume is falling.

Neglected assets
Asset	3M relative to SPY, pp	Share of tracked-ETF dollar volume, %	3M change in that share, %
Semiconductors (SMH)	−11.8	4.96	−19.0
Copper (CPER ETF)	−5.3	0.02	−2.0
Emerging (EEM)	−5.2	1.31	−6.0
China large-cap (FXI)	−3.8	0.62	−4.0
Japan (EWJ)	−1.4	0.33	−8.0

Forces with liquidity included

Liquidity or crowding forces are active at: Liquidity expansion (1Y). Strengths in standard deviations; liquidity and crowding forces are fitted at 1M and longer only. Source: re-fit with the current force library (liquidity and crowding forces included); this day's published forces block predates them and is unchanged.

1Y: Oil supply shock 0.93, Liquidity expansion 0.49, Hawkish Fed repricing 0.46, Real-yield shock 0.42. Liquidity and crowding forces: Liquidity contraction 0.00, Liquidity expansion 0.49, Narrative crowding (AI) 0.00.
6M: Inflation pressure easing 0.49, Hawkish Fed repricing 0.46, Real-yield shock 0.43. Liquidity and crowding forces: Liquidity contraction 0.00, Liquidity expansion 0.13, Narrative crowding (AI) 0.00.
3M: Oil supply shock 0.60, AI capex / profitability doubts 0.43. Liquidity and crowding forces: Liquidity contraction 0.00, Liquidity expansion 0.10, Narrative crowding (AI) 0.00.
1M: AI capex / profitability doubts 0.56. Liquidity and crowding forces: Liquidity contraction 0.00, Liquidity expansion 0.00, Narrative crowding (AI) 0.00.
1W: AI capex / profitability doubts 1.31. Liquidity and crowding forces: not fitted at this horizon.
2D: no force above the activity threshold. Liquidity and crowding forces: not fitted at this horizon.

Sources

Federal Reserve H.4.1 (Data Download Program): total assets, reserve balances (weekly; latest 2026-10-28): https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/
US Treasury Daily Treasury Statement: TGA closing balance (daily; latest 2026-11-03): https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/daily-treasury-statement/
New York Fed overnight reverse repo operations (daily; latest 2026-11-04): https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/reverse-repo
Federal Reserve H.6 money stock (M2, seasonally adjusted) (monthly; latest 2026-09-30): https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI, ANFCI) (weekly; latest 2026-04-24): https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/nfci/current-data
ECB Eurosystem consolidated balance sheet, total assets (weekly; latest 2026-10-30): https://data.ecb.europa.eu/data/datasets/ILM
Bank of Japan accounts, total assets (BS01 MABJMTA) (monthly; latest 2026-10-31): https://www.stat-search.boj.or.jp/
Federal Reserve interest on reserve balances (IORB) (daily; latest 2026-11-05): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reserve-balances.htm

Computed by src/liquidity.py. $ bn = US$ billions. Changes over 1M/3M/6M are calendar 30/91/182 days to the latest data on or before the close. Crowding numbers are volume-based proxies, not fund-flow data.

Not investment advice. MarketMoves describes past market data and reported news for general information. Figures can be delayed or wrong; check the original source before relying on them.