Market data and signals: Thursday, November 5, 2026

Macro drivers

Prediction-market odds

Market-implied probabilities as published by the venue, shown as plain data. They are not a MarketMoves view.

• Fed Decision in December? 25 bps increase 63.5% 1D change −14.0 pp Polymarket
• Fed Decision in December? No change 33.5% 1D change +12.0 pp Polymarket
• Fed Decision in January? No change 74.5% 1D change −4.0 pp Polymarket
• Fed Decision in January? 25 bps increase 17.5% 1D change −2.5 pp Polymarket
• How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? 0 (0 bps) 97.4% 1D change −0.3 pp Polymarket
• Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 63.5% 1D change −14.0 pp Polymarket
• Fed Decision in March? No change 58.0% 1D change +10.5 pp Polymarket
• Fed Decision in March? 25 bps increase 31.5% 1D change −15.0 pp Polymarket

Day delta

• Big moves on the day S&P 500 (SPY): −4.27%; Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): −6.27%; Dow (DIA ETF): −3.42%; Russell 2000 (IWM ETF): −4.47%; Tech (XLK): −7.96%; Discretionary (XLY): −3.70%; Industrials (XLI): −4.15%; Semiconductors (SMH): −11.50%; Software (IGV): −4.36%; AI leaders basket (6 stocks, equal weight): −5.01%; Growth (IWF): −6.30%; Developed (VEA): −3.64%; Emerging (EEM): −5.70%; Emerging (VWO): −3.62%; Japan (EWJ): −5.84%; Copper (CPER ETF): −3.19%; US 2Y: −12 bp
• Drawdown shifts S&P 500 (SPY): 5y drawdown moved from −1.6% to −5.8% (−4.2 pp); Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): 5y drawdown moved from −8.9% to −14.6% (−5.7 pp); Dow (DIA ETF): 5y drawdown moved from −1.5% to −4.8% (−3.3 pp); Russell 2000 (IWM ETF): 5y drawdown moved from −6.7% to −10.8% (−4.1 pp); Tech (XLK): 5y drawdown moved from −12.6% to −19.6% (−7.0 pp); Discretionary (XLY): 5y drawdown moved from −1.2% to −4.8% (−3.6 pp); Industrials (XLI): 5y drawdown moved from −8.9% to −12.7% (−3.8 pp); Semiconductors (SMH): 5y drawdown moved from −24.6% to −33.3% (−8.7 pp); Software (IGV): 5y drawdown moved from −12.1% to −15.9% (−3.8 pp); AI leaders basket (6 stocks, equal weight): 5y drawdown moved from −8.9% to −13.5% (−4.6 pp); Growth (IWF): 5y drawdown moved from −8.7% to −14.5% (−5.8 pp); Developed (VEA): 5y drawdown moved from −3.8% to −7.3% (−3.5 pp); Emerging (EEM): 5y drawdown moved from −13.5% to −18.4% (−4.9 pp); Emerging (VWO): 5y drawdown moved from −8.2% to −11.5% (−3.3 pp); Japan (EWJ): 5y drawdown moved from −5.5% to −11.0% (−5.5 pp); Ethereum (USD): 5y drawdown moved from −53.0% to −49.9% (+3.1 pp); VIX (Cboe): 5y drawdown moved from −60.2% to −68.3% (−8.1 pp)
• New 5-year highs T-bill ETF (SGOV) at 100.45
• Odds moves Fed Decision in December? (25 bps increase): 77.5% to 63.5% (−14.0 pp); Fed Decision in December? (No change): 21.5% to 33.5% (+12.0 pp); Another Fed rate hike in 2026? (Yes): 77.5% to 63.5% (−14.0 pp); Fed Decision in March? (No change): 47.5% to 58.0% (+10.5 pp); Fed Decision in March? (25 bps increase): 46.5% to 31.5% (−15.0 pp)

Fixed thresholds: 1D moves beyond 3% (prices) or 10 bp (yields), new 5-year highs, 5y drawdown shifts over 3 pp, odds moves of 5 pp or more.

Signals

Relative performance in percentage points (first leg minus second). States use fixed thresholds: trend, reversal, emerging.

• Dollar (UUP ETF), % change: 1D +0.1%; 2D −0.3%; 1W −0.4%; 1M −0.2%; 3M +3.0%; 6M +5.2%; 1Y +5.6%
• EM FX stress: average % change of USD against BRL, INR, KRW, MXN, ZAR (up = EM currencies weaker): 1D n/a; 2D −0.7%; 1W −0.3%; 1M +1.8%; 3M +1.8%; 6M +1.5%; 1Y −0.7%
• 10Y real yield (Treasury), change in bp: 1D −4 bp; 2D −5 bp; 1W −3 bp; 1M −35 bp; 3M +19 bp; 6M +64 bp; 1Y +73 bp
• 10Y breakeven (nominal minus real yield), change in bp: 1D −2 bp; 2D −6 bp; 1W −11 bp; 1M −12 bp; 3M +2 bp; 6M −23 bp; 1Y −6 bp
• Sector breadth: 1D 0 of 11 sector ETFs up (0%); 1W 7 of 11 sector ETFs up (64%); 1M 7 of 11 sector ETFs up (64%)
• Unusual volume: Staples (XLP) 2.48 times its 60-day average, Discretionary (XLY) 2.32 times its 60-day average, Health care (XLV) 2.22 times its 60-day average, Tech (XLK) 2.20 times its 60-day average, Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) 2.17 times its 60-day average. Volume proxies, not fund-flow data: ETF dollar volume (close x shares traded) over the last 5 sessions against the 60 sessions before.

Sources and data dates

• Alpha Vantage (adjusted daily closes, spot metals and oil, FX, crypto, macro): S&P 500 (SPY), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Dividend (SCHD), Dow (DIA ETF), Russell 2000 (IWM ETF), Tech (XLK), Health care (XLV), Financials (XLF) and 47 more. Latest data 2026-11-05
• US Treasury daily par yield curve: US 3M bill, US 2Y, US 10Y, US 20Y, US 30Y, 2s10s spread. Latest data 2026-11-05
• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey: 30Y mortgage (weekly), 30Y mortgage rate. Latest data 2026-11-05
• Cboe VIX daily history: VIX (Cboe). Latest data 2026-11-04
• New York Fed SOFR: SOFR (NY Fed). Latest data 2026-11-04
• US Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI, unemployment, payrolls): Unemployed (level). Latest data 2026-09-01
• US Treasury daily real yield curve: 10Y real yield (TIPS), 10Y breakeven (nominal minus real). Latest data 2026-11-05
• Polymarket public market data: Odds

Proxies

• Dow (DIA ETF): DIA ETF stands in for the Dow index
• Russell 2000 (IWM ETF): IWM ETF stands in for the Russell 2000 index
• Gold (GLD ETF): GLD ETF stands in for spot gold
• Silver (SLV ETF): SLV ETF stands in for spot silver
• Copper (CPER ETF): CPER ETF stands in for copper futures
• Dollar (UUP ETF): UUP ETF stands in for the dollar index (DXY)

Crypto and prediction-market figures are shown as plain data. Horizon and drawdown rules: methodology.