Market moves: Thursday, November 5, 2026

Close of Thursday, November 5, 2026: S&P 500 (SPY) −4.27%; US 10Y 4.84% (−6 bp on the day); VIX (Cboe) 16.61 (−20.26% on the day, as of 2026-11-04); Dollar (UUP ETF) +0.12%; Gold (GLD ETF) +0.80%; Bitcoin (USD) +4.00% (as of 2026-11-04). Largest 1D move in the table: Semiconductors (SMH) −11.50%.

Underlying forces

Shared forces acting on all assets at once, inferred in code from the whole pattern of moves; blank = not active. How we judge causes.

Force1Y6M3M1M1W2 daysShort-run trend
AI capex / profitability doubtsmildmildstrongstrongstrongbuilding (since 2026-11-04)
Oil supply shockmoderatemildfading
Liquidity expansionmildfading
Inflation pressure easingmildfading
Hawkish Fed repricingmildmildmildfading
Real-yield shockmildmildfading
Recession / growth fearmildfading
Share of moves explained50%43%52%56%49%32%

Widely cited and confirmed by the data: Iran war and the oil price shock = Oil supply shock (1Y, 3M); Fed rate-increase fears = Hawkish Fed repricing (1Y, 6M, 3M); AI selloff = AI capex / profitability doubts (6M, 3M); Global bond yields soaring = Real-yield shock (1Y, 6M).

What each force means
  • AI capex / profitability doubts: Investors doubt the payoff of AI spending: AI leaders and semis lag, defensives and the average stock gain relative ground.
  • Oil supply shock: A supply disruption lifts crude: oil and commodities rise, breakevens climb, consumers lag.
  • Liquidity expansion: Central banks and the Treasury add money to the system (asset purchases, a falling TGA or reverse repo balance): net liquidity rises, financial conditions loosen, risk assets rise broadly and speculative, long-duration assets rise most while the dollar softens.
  • Inflation pressure easing: Inflation compensation falls: breakevens and nominal yields ease, commodities soften, long duration gains.
  • Hawkish Fed repricing: Markets price more Fed rate increases: the 2Y leads yields higher, the curve flattens, the dollar firms and long-duration assets lag.
  • Real-yield shock: Real yields jump: long-duration assets, gold and growth stocks fall behind, the dollar firms.
  • Recession / growth fear: Investors price weaker growth: cyclicals, small caps, copper and oil fall behind, credit weakens and long yields fall.

Status quo board

What the market favours in each group, and whether that is changing. States: intact, challenged, shifting, new status quo. Causes month by month: what drove each month.

  • US stocks: Value and dividend payers lead growth again after a mid-year round-trip: SCHD is up 38.1% over 1Y against 4.5% for QQQ, but that lead narrowed to 3.0 pp in June and 83% of it came in the last month. intact (path of Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF) over 1Y: volatile / round-trip)
  • Sectors: Defensive sectors are favoured over tech: staples sit 0.6% below their 5-year high while tech (XLK) trails defensives by 29.8 pp over 1M. intact (path of Tech (XLK) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) over 1M: steady)
  • AI and style themes: Semis have lost their lead: they trail the market by 24.3 pp over 1M and 17.3 pp over 3M, reversing in early October. intact (path of Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY) over 1Y: volatile / round-trip)
  • AI leaders and QQQ: The AI platform leaders lag the market again: the basket trails by 8.1 pp over 6M and 7.3 pp over 1M, after the 6M lag narrowed to zero in early October; 97% of it came in the last month. intact (path of AI leaders basket vs S&P 500 (SPY) over 6M: volatile / round-trip)
  • Foreign markets: Emerging markets lag the US: EEM trails the S&P 500 by 10.2 pp over 1M and 12.6 pp over 6M, reversing a 6M lead of 6.3 pp in June; 84% of the 6M gap came in the last month. intact (path of Emerging (EEM) vs S&P 500 (SPY) over 6M: volatile / round-trip)
  • Crypto: Crypto is out of favour: bitcoin is 35.5% below its 5-year high and down 20.7% over 1Y. intact
  • Commodities: Oil is priced for a war-driven supply shock: WTI spot is up 61.3% over 1Y. shifting. Challenger: Crude is losing its war premium: Brent spot fell 21.0% over 1M (as of 2026-11-03) and energy (XLE) lost 11.7% in November so far.
  • Rates: Higher for longer: the market prices more Fed increases, with the 2Y up 83 bp over 1Y and Polymarket odds of 63.5% for another 2026 increase. challenged. Challenger: Long yields are falling: the 10Y is down 47 bp over 1M and 6 bp on the day, and Polymarket odds of a December increase fell to 63.5% from 77.5%.
  • Credit: Credit is calm: high yield moves in line with IG and regional banks keep pace with the market. intact (path of High yield (HYG) vs IG corporate (LQD) over 1M: steady)
  • Dollar and volatility: The dollar is firm on Fed rate-increase pricing: UUP is up 5.6% over 1Y. intact

Asset table: monthly change

Each cell is the change during that calendar month (month to date for the current month).

Prices, FX, crypto, commodities and ratios: % change from the last close on or before the previous month-end to the last close on or before the month-end (Nov MTD: to the latest close, 2026-11-05). Rate rows, marked (Δ level, pp), show the change in the rate's level during the month in percentage points with 2 decimals; spread rows, marked (Δ level, bp), in basis points; their Last column is the current level. Cells carry no unit suffix. A rise carries a + sign and a fall a − sign. Hover or focus a cell for the two closes behind it. Trailing 90-day values are on trends, with the 1D to 1Y changes on trends and horizons. 7 series carry an "as of" date (latest print older than the 2026-11-05 close). Select a column heading to sort within each group.

Change during each calendar month (month to date for the current month), grouped by asset class; % for prices, rate rows change in level in pp, spread rows in bp
AssetLastMonthly change: % for prices; rate rows pp, spread rows bp
Nov MTDOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJanDecNov 25
Us Equity status quo intact 1D to 1Y
S&P 500 (SPY)12-month story734.06−2.9−0.9−0.3+2.70.0−1.0+5.3+10.5−4.9−0.9+1.5+0.1+0.2
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)12-month story648.58−6.1−6.7+3.3+4.2−6.6−0.1+10.6+15.7−4.8−2.3+1.2−0.7−1.6
Dividend (SCHD)12-month story35.45−0.9+10.0−6.0+4.2+5.6−1.7+1.3+4.5−2.6+6.5+8.7+0.4+3.1
Dow (DIA ETF)12-month story514.89−0.4+1.7−4.1+1.5+0.4+2.6+2.9+7.3−5.2+0.3+1.8+0.9+0.4
Russell 2000 (IWM ETF)12-month story271.32−2.9+0.5−5.2+0.9−3.1+3.7+4.5+12.1−5.0+0.7+5.5−0.7+1.0
Sectors status quo intact 1D to 1Y
Tech (XLK)12-month story162.45−9.5−8.3+5.1+6.4−8.0−0.1+19.8+20.0−4.1−3.6−0.1+0.8−4.8
Health care (XLV)12-month story185.16+0.2+9.8−0.9+4.9+2.5+6.6+2.4−0.4−8.1+3.50.0−1.4+9.3
Financials (XLF)12-month story57.58+1.9+5.8−7.1+1.4+6.2+4.3−1.1+5.6−3.5−3.8−2.4+3.1+1.8
Energy (XLE)12-month story61.81−11.7+13.9−3.3+7.4+12.1−5.0−5.6−2.6+10.3+9.5+14.2−0.3+2.6
Staples (XLP)12-month story91.42+2.2+10.9−4.5−0.1+2.4+0.9−1.7+2.8−8.4+7.8+7.5−1.3+4.1
Discretionary (XLY)12-month story117.81+2.1+6.0−6.4+0.4−1.0−2.8+2.1+8.6−6.6−3.6+1.5+1.2−1.4
Utilities (XLU)12-month story43.37−0.1+10.1−5.9−4.8−2.2+2.7−5.2+2.1−3.2+10.4+1.3−5.1+1.7
Materials (XLB)12-month story52.40−0.6+8.3−7.1+4.5−0.8−0.3−0.6+3.0−6.0+8.4+8.6+2.0+4.4
Real estate (XLRE)12-month story44.32+2.7+5.5−6.5−2.1+2.4+1.0−0.9+8.7−6.2+5.8+2.7−2.1+1.9
Communication (XLC)12-month story104.58+4.7−10.0−0.1+3.0+1.0−7.2−0.7+5.1−5.8−1.7+2.0+2.3+0.5
Industrials (XLI)12-month story162.43−3.0+0.3−4.4−2.6−2.9+7.3−0.8+7.9−8.4+7.1+6.7+1.3−0.9
Themes status quo intact 1D to 1Y
Semiconductors (SMH)12-month story446.29−14.6−14.2+9.4+3.0−17.6+9.5+18.2+32.2−5.7+0.7+12.0+2.5−3.0
Software (IGV)12-month story99.04−5.0−2.1−3.2+16.3+4.4−10.9+21.2+4.8−1.9−9.7−14.6+1.5−9.9
AI leaders basket (6 stocks, equal weight)12-month story7,442.19−1.8−8.9+3.8+1.5+7.1−10.7+4.8+21.2−5.0−7.9+1.3−1.90.0
Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP)12-month story217.13−0.5+4.9−4.8+2.0+1.1+2.3+2.6+6.0−6.0+3.5+3.4+0.4+1.9
Value (IWD)12-month story258.670.0+4.3−3.1+2.0+3.9+2.2+2.9+8.2−4.9+2.6+4.5+0.7+2.6
Growth (IWF)12-month story110.47−6.1−6.1+2.2+3.7−4.7−2.8+7.2+11.9−5.2−3.4−1.6−0.6−1.9
Foreign status quo intact 1D to 1Y
Developed ex-US (EFA)12-month story102.72−0.6−0.5−3.3+1.8+1.6+0.7+2.4+5.3−7.8+4.6+4.9+2.7+0.7
Developed (VEA)12-month story68.24−1.7−1.7−2.9+3.3−0.9−0.2+4.3+7.4−8.6+6.1+6.0+3.2+1.0
Emerging (EEM)12-month story58.11−4.8−8.6−0.3+4.6−6.3+0.2+7.2+12.7−9.3+5.9+8.0+2.2−1.8
Emerging (VWO)12-month story54.24−2.3−6.4−1.8+3.0−1.6−0.2+1.6+9.0−7.0+2.9+5.0+0.9−1.2
Japan (EWJ)12-month story88.38−4.9−4.7+1.6+3.8−0.9+0.9+4.3+5.5−8.6+7.8+6.2+0.9−0.5
China large-cap (FXI)12-month story34.95+5.6−2.8−3.8−3.1+15.5−9.2−4.7+2.5−3.7−5.9+3.4−2.1−0.5
Germany (EWG)12-month story42.76+2.1+1.4−6.6+3.2+3.6−2.9+2.8+6.5−10.5+2.9+1.4+3.9+0.5
Crypto status quo intact 1D to 1Y
Bitcoin (USD)as of 2026-11-0412-month story80,428+3.9−7.3+6.4+25.0+7.4−20.5−3.6+11.8+1.9−14.9−10.1−3.2−17.5
Ethereum (USD)as of 2026-11-0412-month story2,422.27+7.5−16.1+8.8+32.6+18.6−21.7−11.2+7.3+7.1−19.8−17.4−0.8−22.2
Commodity status quo shifting 1D to 1Y
Gold (GLD ETF)12-month story375.48+5.5−6.6−6.8+9.9+0.9−11.7−1.5−1.5−11.1+8.7+12.3+2.2+5.4
Silver (SLV ETF)12-month story46.92+5.2−18.2−9.3+14.8−2.1−21.7+2.5−2.2−19.8+12.7+17.1+25.8+16.4
WTI crude (spot)as of 2026-11-0312-month story99.64−7.4+10.7+11.7+1.0+22.1−22.6−16.1+5.6+53.6+3.8+12.6−2.3−5.1
Brent crude (spot)as of 2026-11-0312-month story107.03−10.9+3.7+29.1−7.4+37.6−24.1−25.2−1.9+77.6−1.3+17.8−4.2−2.1
Copper (CPER ETF)12-month story37.36−4.2−2.0−0.5+1.1+4.9−2.9+6.4+6.1−6.6+1.2+4.2+8.3+2.4
Rates status quo challenged 1D to 1Y
US 3M bill (Δ level, pp)12-month story4.17%+0.01−0.04+0.29+0.08−0.04+0.18+0.01−0.02+0.030.000.00−0.21−0.01
US 2Y (Δ level, pp)12-month story4.46%−0.10−0.32+0.54+0.06+0.14+0.16+0.10+0.09+0.41−0.14+0.050.00−0.13
US 10Y (Δ level, pp)12-month story4.84%−0.10−0.35+0.540.00+0.31−0.01+0.05+0.10+0.33−0.29+0.08+0.16−0.09
US 20Y (Δ level, pp)12-month story5.27%−0.07−0.34+0.44−0.04+0.35−0.05+0.01+0.09+0.31−0.25+0.03+0.17−0.03
US 30Y (Δ level, pp)12-month story5.25%−0.06−0.33+0.39−0.02+0.36−0.08+0.01+0.10+0.24−0.23+0.03+0.170.00
2s10s spread (Δ level, bp)12-month story+38 bp0−30−6+17−17−5+1−8−15+3+16+4
30Y mortgage (weekly) (Δ level, pp)12-month story7.18%−0.06+0.21+0.370.00+0.17−0.04+0.23−0.08+0.40−0.12−0.05−0.08+0.06
Credit status quo intact 1D to 1Y
IG corporate (LQD)12-month story104.66+0.8+2.5−3.4+0.4−2.2+0.1+0.9+0.3−2.1+1.4+0.3−0.7+0.9
High yield (HYG)12-month story77.34+0.4+0.7−2.7+0.9−0.2+0.1+0.4+1.5−1.00.0+0.6+0.5+0.7
EM dollar debt (EMB)12-month story92.00+0.4+1.8−3.7+0.6−1.4+0.4+1.1+2.5−3.5+1.6+0.3+0.3+0.5
Alts 1D to 1Y
Managed futures (CTA)12-month story26.73−10.7+4.3+2.5+4.7+5.1−9.7−10.3+7.6+0.4+8.3+3.3+0.2+0.7
FX / Vol status quo intact 1D to 1Y
Dollar (UUP ETF)12-month story28.93−0.2+0.8+2.3−0.2−0.8+2.7+1.1−1.5+2.6+0.9−0.7−0.90.0
USD/JPY12-month story157.66+0.1+0.1−1.5+1.4−3.1+2.1+1.7−1.3+1.7+0.8−1.2+0.3+1.4
USD/MXNas of 2026-11-0412-month story18.6089−0.9+3.9+6.4−2.0−0.9+0.8−0.7−2.6+4.2−1.4−3.1−1.6−1.4
VIX (Cboe)as of 2026-11-0412-month story16.61−14.5+18.8+9.5−6.7−2.8+7.4−9.3−33.1+27.1+13.9+16.7−8.6−6.2
Stress 1D to 1Y
TIPS (TIP)12-month story106.27−0.2+2.5−2.60.0−0.7−0.5+0.2+1.1−1.4+1.3+0.5−0.6+0.2
Long zero-coupon (ZROZ)12-month story58.95+0.9+9.4−8.3+1.2−8.2+2.4+0.8−1.7−6.3+7.3−0.9−4.7−0.5
T-bill ETF (SGOV)new 5y high12-month story100.450.0+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3
Commodities (DBC)12-month story31.45−6.4+4.0+3.3+6.3+10.5−9.6−5.2+7.4+15.3+2.7+9.3+0.2+0.8
KRE/SPY ratio12-month story0.0985+3.3+4.6−4.7−5.8+1.6+9.3−5.3−3.0+3.2−2.1+4.6+3.5+4.8
SOFR (NY Fed) (Δ level, pp)as of 2026-11-0412-month story3.94%−0.01+0.05+0.22+0.02−0.02+0.05−0.03−0.020.000.00−0.19−0.25−0.10

Each group's full card (where we are, how we got here, direction of travel, causes, drivers, speed, tailwinds and headwinds, reasoning and today's review): status quo by asset.

Today (1D): Midterm data-centre fears turned into a chip rout

AI spending doubts, a regime force, drove the day and strengthened at every short horizon: the midterm results raised the prospect of limits on data-centre construction, and chips led a broad fall that extended the value and defensive status quos.

The S&P 500 (SPY) fell 4.27% and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 6.27%. Semis (SMH) fell 11.50% and trailed the market by 7.2 pp, while value beat growth by 3.8 pp. Researched coverage tied the losses to Democratic wins in data-centre states such as Texas, where the governor-elect campaigned on a data-centre moratorium.

The fall reached beyond chips: Tesla and SpaceX fell on the risk of congressional probes, and the selloff spread to Japan (EWJ, down 5.84%) and emerging markets (EEM, down 5.70%), while China (FXI) rose 1.03%. Staples (XLP) fell only 0.57%.

Bonds rallied: the 2Y yield fell 12 bp and the 10Y 6 bp, and Polymarket odds of a December Fed increase fell to 63.5% from 77.5%. Gold (GLD) rose 0.80%. Credit held: high yield trailed IG by 0.4 pp.

Drivers

This week (1W): A week-long rotation out of chips into value and defensives

AI spending doubts drove the week, continuing the regime force: chips and tech fell hard while value and defensives held, and oil's war premium unwound at the same time.

Tech (XLK) fell 13.9% over the week and semis 20.5%, while staples (XLP) gained 3.7%. Tech trailed defensives by 15.5 pp and value beat growth by 8.0 pp.

Commodities (DBC) fell 6.7% and Brent spot 13.1% (as of 2026-11-03) as oil's war premium unwound, and managed futures (CTA) lost 10.8% as both the oil and chip trends reversed.

Drivers

One month (1M): Waning conviction in AI hardware set the month

Over the month AI spending doubts, the strongest active force, overturned the year's chip leadership, with a pattern consistent with money moving from chips into defensives, value and the average stock.

Over the month semis trailed the market by 24.3 pp and tech trailed defensives by 29.8 pp, gaps that came mostly in the last month after an early-October lead reversed, while the equal-weight S&P 500 beat the cap-weighted index by 8.1 pp. The AI leaders basket fell 12.5%.

Rates argue against a rate story: the 10Y fell 47 bp and the real yield 35 bp, which in a rate-driven market favours long-duration growth, yet value beat growth by 17.2 pp. The AI share of dollar volume is 41.3% and falling, consistent with crowding into AI unwinding.

Drivers

Three months (3M): Oil, AI doubts and Fed pricing shaped the quarter

Over three months the regime forces held: the oil supply shock lifted crude and energy, AI spending doubts pulled chips behind, and hawkish Fed repricing, rising again, lifted short yields; recession fear is newly active at this horizon.

WTI spot rose 21.6% over three months, while the 2Y yield rose 28 bp and the dollar 3.0%. Small caps (IWM) fell 9.3%.

Semis trailed the market by 17.3 pp over three months, but the 90-day gap was still +0.2 pp at the end of September: the gap reversed in early October and most of it came in the last month.

Drivers

Six months (6M): Rising real yields and easing inflation pulled in opposite directions

Over six months hawkish Fed repricing and a real-yield shock rewarded value over growth while easing inflation pulled long yields back; value's lead round-tripped, narrowing in early October before surging in the last month.

Value beat growth by 20.3 pp, but the lead narrowed to 1.7 pp in early October and 91% of it came in the last month. Health care rose 28.5% while gold (GLD) fell 10.2%.

The 10Y yield rose 41 bp and the real yield 64 bp, while the 10Y breakeven fell 23 bp: the fit finds a real-yield shock and easing inflation pulling the 10Y in opposite directions. The AI leaders basket trailed the market by 8.1 pp, 97% of it in the last month.

Drivers

  • CPI inflation ran at 3.7% year over year. Source: MarketMoves data
  • Coverage treated the deficit and high Treasury yields as a growing concern. Source: CNBC, 2026-10-26

One year (1Y): Oil and Fed tightening set the year; liquidity growth cushioned it

Over the year the oil supply shock and hawkish Fed repricing set the regime with higher real yields; liquidity expansion is newly active at this horizon, consistent with M2 growth of 5.71%.

WTI spot is up 61.3% over the year (as of 2026-11-03), the 2Y yield 83 bp and the dollar 5.6%. Value beat growth by 36.2 pp, but its lead narrowed by 11.3 pp between July and October and 53% of it came in the last month.

Semis still lead the market by 15.0 pp over the year, down from a peak of 75.9 pp in June, so the year's AI gains sat in chips and are now fading. Bitcoin fell 20.7% and energy (XLE) rose 45.4%.

Drivers

Cross-asset read: Bonds, gold and China gained as the chip rout spread

Today's cross-asset pattern was AI spending doubts spreading beyond US chips: chip-heavy Asian markets fell, bonds and gold gained, and Fed rate-increase odds dropped, a short-term turn against the regime force of Fed rate-increase pricing.

The 2Y yield fell 12 bp and the 2s10s spread widened 6 bp. Gold (GLD) rose 0.80% while copper (CPER) fell 3.19%, so copper trailed gold by 4.0 pp. The dollar rose 0.12%.

Polymarket odds of a December Fed increase fell to 63.5% from 77.5%, and odds of no change in March rose to 58.0%.

Drivers

  • Coverage reported bonds bolstered by bets on a slower data-centre buildout. Source: CNN (article)
  • Concerns about US curbs on AI spilled into Korea and Taiwan, while China held up on support measures. Source: TradingView (article)

Credit and stress watch: Credit softened at the margin but did not break

Credit is softening at the margin rather than breaking: high yield has trailed IG by 2.2 pp over the month, a move the shared forces don't explain, while regional banks beat the market.

HYG fell 0.23% and LQD rose 0.15% on the day of the tech rout, and EM dollar debt (EMB) fell 0.47%. SOFR printed 3.94% (as of 2026-11-04).

Regional banks beat the market by 7.9 pp over the month, and the KRE/SPY ratio rose 1.84% on the day.

Drivers

  • Managed futures (CTA) lost 10.8% over the week, consistent with trend positions caught by the turns in oil and chips. Source: MarketMoves data

Macro drivers, prediction-market odds, the day delta, the signals table and sources and data dates for this day: data page.

Not investment advice. MarketMoves describes past market data and reported news for general information. Figures can be delayed or wrong; check the original source before relying on them.