Liquidity and crowding: Thursday, November 5, 2026

Net liquidity flat, +$24 bn over 3M; global CB liquidity (Fed+ECB+BoJ) flat, −1.7% over 3M; M2 5.71% y/y; US stock market cap $75.73 tn, −$0.56 tn in October (a price-index estimate, so all of it is price); Z.1 net equity issuance +$142 bn in 2026 Q2 against a +$11.18 tn change in value; money market fund assets −$134 bn in September; NFCI −0.52 (last published 2026-04-24); crowding into AI unwinding; AI share of dollar volume 41.3%.

How much money the central banks and the Treasury leave in the financial system, how loose financial conditions are, and where trading is concentrating. Back to the 2026-11-05 market moves page.

Money rotation

Is money moving out of equities into cash or debt, or the reverse? A fixed-rule classifier in code reads flow evidence (ETF implied flows, money market fund assets), volume proxies (dollar-volume shares, not fund flows) and price confirmation. Each result is "consistent with" a rotation, never a measured flow. A class needs a confirming outflow item and a confirming inflow item, at least 3 confirming items and confirming minus contradicting of at least 2; n/a items never confirm.

1W: no clear rotation (best candidate equities → bonds (safe debt): 3 of 7 confirm, 2 contradict, 2 n/a)
1M: no clear rotation (best candidate equities → bonds (safe debt): 3 of 7 confirm, 1 contradict, 2 n/a)
3M: no clear rotation (best candidate equities → bonds (safe debt): 2 of 7 confirm, 0 contradict, 2 n/a)

Money rotation by horizon
Horizon	Classification	Confirming	Contradicting	n/a	Items tested	Best candidate
1W	no clear rotation	3	2	2	7	equities → bonds (safe debt)
1M	no clear rotation	3	1	2	7	equities → bonds (safe debt)
3M	no clear rotation	2	0	2	7	equities → bonds (safe debt)

ETF implied-flow history building since 2026-11-05 (Alpha Vantage ETF_PROFILE net assets; one point per last_updated stamp, so flows exist only once two stamps are available and only at that cadence); until then ETF flow items are n/a and never confirm. ETF net-assets refresh cadence seen so far: unknown (one AUM stamp so far).

Evidence, 1 week (1W)

Rotation evidence 1W
Evidence (unit; threshold)	Value	Role
Equity ETF implied flow (SPY, VTI, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM) ($ bn; threshold 3)	n/a	n/a
Equity ETFs' share of tracked ETF dollar volume (volume proxy), change (pp; threshold 2)	+6.86	contradicts
Treasury and aggregate bond ETF implied flow (TLT, IEF, SHY, GOVT, AGG, BND) ($ bn; threshold 3)	n/a	n/a
Treasury and aggregate bond ETFs' share of dollar volume (TLT, IEF, AGG; volume proxy), change (pp; threshold 2)	−2.11	contradicts
Stocks minus long Treasuries (SPY - TLT) (pp; threshold 2)	−5.59	confirms
Stocks minus aggregate bonds (SPY - AGG) (pp; threshold 2)	−5.43	confirms
US 10-year Treasury yield, change (a fall = Treasury rally) (bp; threshold 10)	−14	confirms
Cash-like ETFs (SGOV, BIL) price change (info: steady = behaving as cash) (%; threshold 0.3)	+0.1	info: steady

Evidence, 1 month (1M)

Rotation evidence 1M
Evidence (unit; threshold)	Value	Role
Equity ETF implied flow (SPY, VTI, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM) ($ bn; threshold 6)	n/a	n/a
Equity ETFs' share of tracked ETF dollar volume (volume proxy), change (pp; threshold 2.5)	+3.10	contradicts
Treasury and aggregate bond ETF implied flow (TLT, IEF, SHY, GOVT, AGG, BND) ($ bn; threshold 6)	n/a	n/a
Treasury and aggregate bond ETFs' share of dollar volume (TLT, IEF, AGG; volume proxy), change (pp; threshold 2.5)	−1.32	neutral
Stocks minus long Treasuries (SPY - TLT) (pp; threshold 3)	−12.2	confirms
Stocks minus aggregate bonds (SPY - AGG) (pp; threshold 3)	−8.36	confirms
US 10-year Treasury yield, change (a fall = Treasury rally) (bp; threshold 15)	−44	confirms
Cash-like ETFs (SGOV, BIL) price change (info: steady = behaving as cash) (%; threshold 0.5)	+0.3	info: steady

Evidence, 3 months (3M)

Rotation evidence 3M
Evidence (unit; threshold)	Value	Role
Equity ETF implied flow (SPY, VTI, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM) ($ bn; threshold 12)	n/a	n/a
Equity ETFs' share of tracked ETF dollar volume (volume proxy), change (pp; threshold 3)	−5.30	confirms
Treasury and aggregate bond ETF implied flow (TLT, IEF, SHY, GOVT, AGG, BND) ($ bn; threshold 12)	n/a	n/a
Treasury and aggregate bond ETFs' share of dollar volume (TLT, IEF, AGG; volume proxy), change (pp; threshold 3)	+2.05	neutral
Stocks minus long Treasuries (SPY - TLT) (pp; threshold 5)	−5.07	confirms
Stocks minus aggregate bonds (SPY - AGG) (pp; threshold 5)	−4.88	neutral
US 10-year Treasury yield, change (a fall = Treasury rally) (bp; threshold 25)	+19	neutral
Cash-like ETFs (SGOV, BIL) price change (info: steady = behaving as cash) (%; threshold 1.2)	+0.9	info: steady

Liquidity now

US net liquidity = Fed total assets minus the Treasury General Account minus overnight reverse repo, aligned daily (the latest weekly Fed level on or before each day). Global central-bank liquidity: Fed + ECB + BoJ in USD. Changes are over 30, 91 and 182 calendar days to the latest data. State: expanding, contracting or flat on the 3M change against fixed thresholds (for the TGA, reverse repo and NFCI, the effect on liquidity: a falling balance or index counts as expanding); speed: the latest month against the 3M average pace. Units are in each row label; cells carry no suffix.

Liquidity metrics now
Metric	Level	1M	3M	6M	State	Speed	Data date
US net liquidity (Fed total assets - TGA - ON RRP) ($ tn; changes $ bn)	5.81	−48	+24	−53	flat	decelerating	2026-11-05
Fed total assets (H.4.1) ($ tn; changes $ bn)	6.75	−2	+7	+46	flat	decelerating	2026-10-28
Bank reserve balances (H.4.1) ($ tn; changes $ bn)	2.90	−75	−49	−24	flat	accelerating	2026-10-28
Treasury General Account (a rise drains liquidity) ($ tn; changes $ bn)	0.94	+53	+7	+73	flat	accelerating	2026-11-04
Overnight reverse repo (a fall releases liquidity) ($ bn; changes $ bn)	0.1	−0.3	−1.3	−0.7	flat	decelerating	2026-11-05
Global central-bank liquidity (Fed + ECB + BoJ, USD) ($ tn; changes %)	17.36	−0.2	−1.7	−4.6	flat	decelerating	2026-11-05
Chicago Fed NFCI (negative = looser than average) (index; changes in points)	−0.52	−0.06	+0.05	0.00	flat	decelerating	2026-04-24 (stale)
Chicago Fed ANFCI (adjusted for the cycle) (index; changes in points)	−0.49	−0.07	+0.05	+0.07	flat	decelerating	2026-04-24 (stale)
US stock market capitalisation (Z.1 anchor scaled by price-only VTI) ($ tn; changes $ tn)	75.73	−4.54	−3.81	+1.11	falling	accelerating	2026-11-05
US stock market cap / M2 (equities relative to the money stock) (ratio; changes in ratio points)	3.23	−0.19	−0.20	−0.05	falling	accelerating	2026-11-05
Money market fund assets (OFR, monthly) ($ tn; changes $ bn)	8.40	−134	−4	+146	flat	accelerating	2026-09-30

US M2
Metric	Level, $ tn	Year over year, %	3M annualised, %	State	Speed	Data date
US M2 (H.6, seasonally adjusted)	23.41	5.71	5.96	flat	steady	2026-09-30

Funding plumbing

Funding plumbing
Measure	Value	State or date
SOFR, % (New York Fed)	3.94	2026-11-04
Interest on reserve balances (IORB), % (Federal Reserve)	3.90	effective 2026-09-17
SOFR minus IORB, bp (above zero = reserves getting scarcer)	+4	contracting
Overnight reverse repo balance, effect on liquidity over 3M	0.1	flat

US stock market value and money flows

A change in market value is mostly a price change, not money flowing in. Level = the latest Z.1 quarter-end market value of US public corporate equities (all domestic sectors, LM883164115) minus ETF (LM564090005) and closed-end fund (LM554090005) shares, scaled each day by VTI's price-only close (split-adjusted, dividends not added back) relative to its close on the anchor date. Between Z.1 releases the estimate moves with prices only, so its monthly change is price by construction; net issuance (issuance minus buybacks, the money actually raised from or returned to investors) is known only quarterly, from Z.1 F.223 (not seasonally adjusted). Revaluation = change in value minus net issuance (price, new listings at market value and other volume changes). Anchor: 2026 Q2 (quarter-end 2026-06-30), $77.64 tn; VTI close on the anchor date 370.04 (2026-06-30).

What changed the market value: issuance vs price (Z.1, quarterly)

Change in value = net issuance + revaluation. Net issuance is the money actually raised from (positive) or returned to (negative, buybacks dominating) investors through the market. VTI price-implied = the previous level times VTI's price change, a cross-check of the revaluation.

Market value change decomposition
Quarter	Level, $ tn	Change, $ bn	Net issuance, $ bn	Revaluation, $ bn	VTI price-implied change, $ bn	VTI price change, %
2026 Q2	77.64	+11,178	+142	+11,036	+10,199	+15.35
2026 Q1	66.46	−3,061	−7	−3,054	−2,998	−4.31
2025 Q4	69.52	+1,529	−96	+1,625	+1,471	+2.16
2025 Q3	67.99	+5,003	−135	+5,138	+5,024	+7.98

ETF net assets and implied flows

Implied flow = change in net assets minus the previous net assets times the price-only return over the same dates. ETF implied-flow history building since 2026-11-05 (Alpha Vantage ETF_PROFILE net assets; one point per last_updated stamp, so flows exist only once two stamps are available and only at that cadence); until then ETF flow items are n/a and never confirm.

ETF net assets and implied flows
ETF	Group	Net assets, $ bn	Data date	AUM points	Flow 1W, $ bn	Flow 1M, $ bn	Flow 3M, $ bn
SPY	equity	809.2	2026-10-29	1	n/a	n/a	n/a
VTI	equity	2,300.0	2026-10-29	1	n/a	n/a	n/a
QQQ	equity	498.9	2026-10-29	1	n/a	n/a	n/a
IWM	equity	78.0	2026-10-29	1	n/a	n/a	n/a
EFA	equity	76.7	2026-10-29	1	n/a	n/a	n/a
EEM	equity	31.1	2026-10-29	1	n/a	n/a	n/a
TLT	bonds	46.2	2026-10-29	1	n/a	n/a	n/a
IEF	bonds	41.6	2026-10-29	1	n/a	n/a	n/a
SHY	bonds	26.3	2026-10-29	1	n/a	n/a	n/a
GOVT	bonds	41.4	2026-10-29	1	n/a	n/a	n/a
AGG	bonds	135.7	2026-10-29	1	n/a	n/a	n/a
BND	bonds	389.1	2026-10-29	1	n/a	n/a	n/a
LQD	credit	28.3	2026-10-29	1	n/a	n/a	n/a
HYG	credit	16.8	2026-10-29	1	n/a	n/a	n/a
SGOV	cash	112.3	2026-10-29	1	n/a	n/a	n/a
BIL	cash	49.8	2026-10-29	1	n/a	n/a	n/a

Dollar-volume shares (volume proxy, not fund flows)

Dollar-volume shares
Group	Share of tracked ETF dollar volume, 1M, %	1W change, pp	1M change, pp	3M change, pp	z vs 1 year (1M share)
Equity ETFs (SPY, QQQ, IWM, VTI)	81.99	+6.86	+3.10	−5.30	−1.3
Treasury and aggregate bond ETFs (TLT, IEF, AGG)	5.89	−2.11	−1.32	+2.05	+1.2
Credit ETFs (LQD, HYG)	8.39	−4.09	−1.61	+2.56	+1.1
Cash-like ETFs (SGOV, BIL)	3.73	−0.66	−0.18	+0.69	+1.0

Unavailable: ICI weekly fund flows (ici.org answers 403 to this server; not worked around).

Monthly change

Same layout as the main asset table. Each cell is the change in the level during that calendar month (month to date for the current month): US net liquidity and global central-bank liquidity in $ bn, M2 year over year in percentage points, NFCI in index points. Units are in each row label; cells carry no suffix; hover or focus a cell for the two levels behind it. n/a: no data within the series' release cadence. The levels at the latest data and each month-end follow.

Change in level during each calendar month
Metric	Nov MTD	Oct	Sep	Aug	Jul	Jun	May	Apr	Mar	Feb	Jan	Dec	Nov 25
US net liquidity ($ bn) (level, $ bn; Δ level, $ bn)	+19	+43	+46	−158	+69	+1	+67	−26	−51	+114	+23	+73	−20
Global CB liquidity (Fed + ECB + BoJ, USD) (level, $ bn; Δ level, $ bn)	+4	−80	−215	+3	+6	−471	−100	+284	−445	−34	+178	+53	−59
US M2 year over year (level %; Δ level, pp)	0.00	0.00	+0.11	+0.24	+0.06	−0.07	+0.84	+0.11	−0.17	+0.53	+0.02	+0.20	−0.44
Chicago Fed NFCI (level, index points; Δ level, index points)	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	−0.06	+0.05	+0.05	−0.02	−0.03	+0.01
US stock market cap (level, $ tn; Δ level, $ tn)	−2.23	−0.56	−0.82	+2.09	−0.39	+0.46	+3.81	+6.91	−3.79	−0.37	+1.10	−0.16	+0.19
US stock market cap / M2 (level, ratio; Δ level, ratio points)	−0.10	−0.02	−0.06	+0.08	−0.03	−0.04	+0.17	+0.29	−0.20	−0.02	+0.05	−0.03	+0.01
Money market fund assets (OFR month-end prints) (level, $ bn; Δ level, $ bn)	n/a	n/a	−134	+119	+11	0	+234	−84	−102	+117	−69	+242	+139

Level at the latest data and each month-end

Level at Last and month-ends
Metric	Last	Oct 31	Sep 30	Aug 31	Jul 31	Jun 30	May 31	Apr 30	Mar 31	Feb 28	Jan 31	Dec 31	Nov 30
US net liquidity ($ bn) (level, $ bn; Δ level, $ bn)	5,809	5,790	5,747	5,701	5,859	5,790	5,789	5,722	5,748	5,799	5,685	5,662	5,589
Global CB liquidity (Fed + ECB + BoJ, USD) (level, $ bn; Δ level, $ bn)	17,363	17,359	17,439	17,654	17,651	17,645	18,116	18,216	17,932	18,377	18,411	18,233	18,180
US M2 year over year (level %; Δ level, pp)	5.71	5.71	5.71	5.60	5.36	5.30	5.37	4.53	4.42	4.59	4.06	4.04	3.84
Chicago Fed NFCI (level, index points; Δ level, index points)	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	−0.52	−0.46	−0.51	−0.56	−0.54	−0.51
US stock market cap (level, $ tn; Δ level, $ tn)	75.73	77.96	78.52	79.34	77.25	77.64	77.18	73.37	66.46	70.25	70.62	69.52	69.68
US stock market cap / M2 (level, ratio; Δ level, ratio points)	3.23	3.33	3.35	3.41	3.33	3.36	3.40	3.23	2.94	3.14	3.16	3.11	3.14
Money market fund assets (OFR month-end prints) (level, $ bn; Δ level, $ bn)	n/a	n/a	8,397	8,531	8,412	8,401	8,401	8,167	8,251	8,353	8,236	8,305	8,063

Crowding: where trading concentrates

Volume-based proxies, not fund-flow data: dollar volume = close x shares traded (Alpha Vantage), summed over 21 sessions. Theme share = the theme's dollar volume as a share of all tracked US equity ETFs (US equity, sector and theme rows) plus the AI basket stocks and the other mega-caps. Volume-based proxies, not fund-flow data. Crowding into a theme: its volume share and relative performance rise while breadth narrows; unwinding: the reverse.

Theme dollar-volume shares
Theme	Share of dollar volume, %	1M change, pp	3M change, pp	z vs 1 year	Relative to SPY 1M, pp	Relative to SPY 3M, pp	Crowding state
AI leaders basket + semiconductors (SMH)	41.3	−1.0	−1.7	+0.6	−15.4	−12.4	AI crowding unwinding
Other mega-caps (AAPL, TSLA)	14.3	+0.5	−0.2	−0.6	+2.4	+12.3	no clear crowding signal

Breadth

Breadth
Measure	1M (or now)	3M (or 1M earlier)
Equal-weight minus cap-weight S&P 500 (RSP - SPY), pp	+8.7	+3.9
Sectors above their 3-month average, % of 11 (now; 1M earlier)	64	36
Cross-sector dispersion of 1M returns, pp (now; 1M earlier)	9.2	4.0

Neglected assets

The weakest 3M performers against SPY whose share of all tracked-ETF dollar volume is falling.

Neglected assets
Asset	3M relative to SPY, pp	Share of tracked-ETF dollar volume, %	3M change in that share, %
Semiconductors (SMH)	−18.6	4.96	−19.0
Emerging (EEM)	−6.6	1.33	−5.0
Japan (EWJ)	−4.0	0.33	−7.0
Copper (CPER ETF)	−1.5	0.02	−5.0

Forces with liquidity included

Liquidity or crowding forces are active at: Liquidity expansion (1Y), Rotation from stocks to bonds (3M), Rotation from bonds to stocks (1Y). Strengths in standard deviations; liquidity and crowding forces are fitted at 1M and longer only. Source: re-fit with the current force library (liquidity and crowding forces included); this day's published forces block predates them and is unchanged.

1Y: Oil supply shock 1.21, Liquidity expansion 0.47, Rotation from bonds to stocks 0.45, Hawkish Fed repricing 0.38. Liquidity and crowding forces: De-risking to cash 0.15, Liquidity contraction 0.00, Liquidity expansion 0.47, Narrative crowding (AI) 0.00, Re-risking out of cash 0.00, Rotation from stocks to bonds 0.00, Rotation from bonds to stocks 0.45.
6M: Inflation pressure easing 0.46, Hawkish Fed repricing 0.45, Real-yield shock 0.44, AI capex / profitability doubts 0.41. Liquidity and crowding forces: De-risking to cash 0.00, Liquidity contraction 0.00, Liquidity expansion 0.08, Narrative crowding (AI) 0.00, Re-risking out of cash 0.02, Rotation from stocks to bonds 0.00, Rotation from bonds to stocks 0.00.
3M: Oil supply shock 0.66, AI capex / profitability doubts 0.59, Hawkish Fed repricing 0.41, Rotation from stocks to bonds 0.33. Liquidity and crowding forces: De-risking to cash 0.00, Liquidity contraction 0.00, Liquidity expansion 0.05, Narrative crowding (AI) 0.00, Re-risking out of cash 0.09, Rotation from stocks to bonds 0.33, Rotation from bonds to stocks 0.00.
1M: AI capex / profitability doubts 1.63. Liquidity and crowding forces: De-risking to cash 0.00, Liquidity contraction 0.00, Liquidity expansion 0.00, Narrative crowding (AI) 0.00, Re-risking out of cash 0.00, Rotation from stocks to bonds 0.00, Rotation from bonds to stocks 0.00.
1W: AI capex / profitability doubts 1.59. Liquidity and crowding forces: not fitted at this horizon.
2D: AI capex / profitability doubts 1.64. Liquidity and crowding forces: not fitted at this horizon.

Sources

Federal Reserve H.4.1 (Data Download Program): total assets, reserve balances (weekly; latest 2026-10-28): https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/
US Treasury Daily Treasury Statement: TGA closing balance (daily; latest 2026-11-04): https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/daily-treasury-statement/
New York Fed overnight reverse repo operations (daily; latest 2026-11-05): https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/reverse-repo
Federal Reserve H.6 money stock (M2, seasonally adjusted) (monthly; latest 2026-09-30): https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI, ANFCI) (weekly; latest 2026-04-24): https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/nfci/current-data
ECB Eurosystem consolidated balance sheet, total assets (weekly; latest 2026-10-30): https://data.ecb.europa.eu/data/datasets/ILM
Bank of Japan accounts, total assets (BS01 MABJMTA) (monthly; latest 2026-10-31): https://www.stat-search.boj.or.jp/
Federal Reserve interest on reserve balances (IORB) (daily; latest 2026-11-06): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reserve-balances.htm
Federal Reserve Z.1 Financial Accounts: corporate equities levels (L.223) and transactions (F.223, not seasonally adjusted) (quarterly, about 10 weeks after the quarter; latest 2026-06-30): https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI, benchmark CRSP US Total Market), price-only close via Alpha Vantage (daily; latest 2026-11-05): https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vti
OFR U.S. Money Market Fund Data Release: total MMF investments (MMF-MMF_TOT-M) (monthly, about 6 weeks after the month; latest 2026-09-30): https://www.financialresearch.gov/money-market-funds/
Alpha Vantage ETF_PROFILE net assets (16 ETFs), snapshotted daily for implied flows (as refreshed by the source; latest 2026-10-29): https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/

Computed by src/liquidity.py. $ bn = US$ billions. Changes over 1M/3M/6M are calendar 30/91/182 days to the latest data on or before the close. Crowding numbers are volume-based proxies, not fund-flow data.

Not investment advice. MarketMoves describes past market data and reported news for general information. Figures can be delayed or wrong; check the original source before relying on them.