Market data and signals: Monday, November 9, 2026

Supporting data for the 2026-11-09 market moves page.

Macro drivers

Fed funds rate (effective)3.88%0.00 pp over 1 monthas of 2026-11-06 Alpha Vantage

CPI inflation (year over year)3.7%+0.3 pp over 1 monthSep 2026 · Alpha Vantage

Unemployment rate4.1%−0.1 pp over 1 monthOct 2026 · Alpha Vantage

Nonfarm payrolls160,277k+1,023k over 1 monthOct 2026 · Alpha Vantage

Retail sales (year over year)6.7%+1.6 pp over 1 monthSep 2026 · Alpha Vantage

Real GDP growth (annualized, quarter over quarter)4.9%−7.8 pp over 1 quarterQ3 2026 · Alpha Vantage

Unemployed (level)7,068k−41k over 1 monthOct 2026 · BLS

10Y real yield (TIPS)2.66%−0.25 pp over 1 month2026-11-09 · US Treasury

10Y breakeven (nominal minus real)2.22%−0.11 pp over 1 month2026-11-09 · US Treasury

WTI crude spot$99.64+1.8% over 1 monthas of 2026-11-03 Alpha Vantage

30Y mortgage rate7.18%−0.10 pp over 1 month2026-11-05 · Freddie Mac

Event odds

Kalshi odds: event-contract prices from Kalshi's public market data, shown as plain data, not a MarketMoves view. Probability = mid of the yes bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, else the last trade; thin markets (wide spread, volume under 1,000 or open interest under 500 contracts) are flagged and never feed analysis signals. Implied means come from the full ladder of 'above X' contracts. Changes: 1D against 2026-11-06, 1W against 2026-10-29 (Kalshi daily closes for days before our own snapshots); probabilities in percentage points, rates in basis points. Polymarket rows sit under the Kalshi outcome they match.

Fed path

Outcome	Odds or level	1D	1W	Liquidity	Source
FOMC Dec 9, 2026: hike (any size)	79.6%	+4.6 pp	+8.3 pp	liquid	Kalshi
Polymarket: Fed Decision in December? 25 bps increase	79.5%	+3.0 pp	n/a	no depth data	Polymarket
Polymarket: Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes	82.5%	+7.0 pp	n/a	no depth data	Polymarket
FOMC Dec 9, 2026: no change	18.9%	−4.6 pp	−8.8 pp	liquid	Kalshi
Polymarket: Fed Decision in December? No change	18.5%	−4.0 pp	n/a	no depth data	Polymarket
FOMC Dec 9, 2026: cut (any size)	1.5%	0.0 pp	+0.5 pp	liquid	Kalshi
FOMC Jan 27, 2027: hike (any size)	20.5%	−1.4 pp	−8.1 pp	liquid	Kalshi
Polymarket: Fed Decision in January? 25 bps increase	17.5%	−1.0 pp	n/a	no depth data	Polymarket
FOMC Jan 27, 2027: no change	75.6%	+1.5 pp	+6.2 pp	liquid	Kalshi
Polymarket: Fed Decision in January? No change	78.5%	+1.0 pp	n/a	no depth data	Polymarket
FOMC Jan 27, 2027: cut (any size)	3.9%	−0.1 pp	+1.9 pp	liquid	Kalshi
FOMC Mar 17, 2027: hike (any size)	39.4%	−0.6 pp	−8.9 pp	liquid	Kalshi
FOMC Mar 17, 2027: no change	54.0%	−0.3 pp	+8.7 pp	liquid	Kalshi
FOMC Mar 17, 2027: cut (any size)	6.6%	+0.9 pp	+0.2 pp	liquid	Kalshi
FOMC Apr 28, 2027: hike (any size)	18.0%	+3.7 pp	−13.4 pp	liquid	Kalshi
FOMC Apr 28, 2027: no change	64.4%	−4.4 pp	+6.8 pp	liquid	Kalshi
FOMC Apr 28, 2027: cut (any size)	17.5%	+0.8 pp	+6.5 pp	liquid	Kalshi
Fed cuts this year (Dec 31, 2026): exactly 0 cuts (most likely)	97.2%	−0.1 pp	+0.4 pp	liquid	Kalshi
Polymarket: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? 0 (0 bps)	98.0%	0.0 pp	n/a	no depth data	Polymarket
Fed funds upper bound after the Dec 9, 2026 meeting: expected (ladder)	4.20%	+1 bp	+2 bp	liquid	Kalshi
Fed funds upper bound after the Jan 27, 2027 meeting: expected (decision odds)	4.24%	+1 bp	−1 bp	liquid	Kalshi
Fed funds upper bound after the Mar 17, 2027 meeting: expected (decision odds)	4.33%	0 bp	−3 bp	liquid	Kalshi
Fed funds upper bound after the Apr 28, 2027 meeting: expected (decision odds)	4.32%	+1 bp	−8 bp	liquid	Kalshi

Inflation

Outcome	Odds or level	1D	1W	Liquidity	Source
CPI m/m, next print (Oct 2026): implied mean	0.26%	−0.01 pp	−0.01 pp	liquid	Kalshi
CPI m/m, next print (Oct 2026): above 0.2%	55.5%	−3.5 pp	−3.5 pp	liquid	Kalshi
CPI m/m, next print (Oct 2026): above 0.3%	6.5%	−8.0 pp	−10.0 pp	liquid	Kalshi
Core CPI m/m, next print (Oct 2026): implied mean	0.23%	−0.01 pp	−0.01 pp	liquid	Kalshi
Core CPI m/m, next print (Oct 2026): above 0.1%	85.5%	+2.0 pp	+10.0 pp	liquid	Kalshi
Core CPI m/m, next print (Oct 2026): above 0.2%	39.5%	−2.5 pp	−5.0 pp	liquid	Kalshi
CPI y/y, next print (Nov 2026): implied mean	3.72%	−0.08 pp	−0.23 pp	liquid	Kalshi
CPI y/y, next print (Nov 2026): above 3.6%	65.5%	−9.0 pp	−22.0 pp	liquid	Kalshi
CPI y/y, next print (Nov 2026): above 3.7%	39.0%	−20.5 pp	−36.5 pp	liquid	Kalshi

Jobs

Outcome	Odds or level	1D	1W	Liquidity	Source
Nonfarm payrolls, next report (Nov 2026): implied mean	74k	0k	n/a	thin: volume 890, open interest 294	Kalshi
Nonfarm payrolls, next report (Nov 2026): above 80k	47.5%	+2.5 pp	n/a	liquid	Kalshi
Unemployment rate, next report (Nov 2026): implied mean	4.15%	0.00 pp	n/a	thin: volume 540, open interest 479	Kalshi
Unemployment rate, next report (Nov 2026): above 4%	83.5%	+2.0 pp	n/a	liquid	Kalshi
Unemployment rate, next report (Nov 2026): above 4.1%	48.0%	+1.5 pp	n/a	liquid	Kalshi

Growth and recession

Outcome	Odds or level	1D	1W	Liquidity	Source
US recession (NBER) in 2026	2.5%	0.0 pp	0.0 pp	liquid	Kalshi
US recession (NBER) in 2027	20.5%	−0.5 pp	+2.5 pp	liquid	Kalshi
Real GDP growth (annualised q/q), next release (Jan 28, 2027): implied mean	2.89%	+0.04 pp	+0.38 pp	thin: volume 138, open interest 10	Kalshi
Real GDP growth (annualised q/q), next release (Jan 28, 2027): above 2%	80.0%	−1.0 pp	+12.5 pp	liquid	Kalshi
Real GDP growth (annualised q/q), next release (Jan 28, 2027): above 3.5%	32.0%	+0.5 pp	+8.0 pp	liquid	Kalshi

Markets

Outcome	Odds or level	1D	1W	Liquidity	Source
S&P 500 at year-end (Dec 31, 2026): implied mean	7,482	+100	−122	liquid	Kalshi
S&P 500 at year-end (Dec 31, 2026): 7,800 to 7,999.99 (most likely)	25.5%	+10.0 pp	+3.5 pp	liquid	Kalshi
10Y Treasury yield at year-end (Dec 31, 2026): implied mean	4.97%	+1 bp	−15 bp	thin: volume 862	Kalshi
10Y Treasury yield at year-end (Dec 31, 2026): above 4.74%	68.0%	+3.0 pp	−14.0 pp	liquid	Kalshi
10Y Treasury yield at year-end (Dec 31, 2026): above 4.99%	37.0%	+1.0 pp	−19.0 pp	liquid	Kalshi
WTI front-month maximum by the date (Dec 31, 2026): above $115	11.2%	−19.2 pp	−32.7 pp	liquid	Kalshi
WTI front-month maximum by the date (Dec 31, 2026): above $120	9.1%	−13.0 pp	−18.4 pp	liquid	Kalshi
US average gas price at month-end (Nov 30, 2026): implied mean	$3.71	−$0.11	n/a	liquid	Kalshi
US average gas price at month-end (Nov 30, 2026): above $3.60	79.5%	−7.0 pp	n/a	liquid	Kalshi
US average gas price at month-end (Nov 30, 2026): above $3.70	50.5%	−21.5 pp	n/a	liquid	Kalshi

Policy

Outcome	Odds or level	1D	1W	Liquidity	Source
Government shut down on Dec 12, 2026	36.0%	+5.5 pp	−1.0 pp	liquid	Kalshi
US tariff rate on China imports (Jan 1, 2027): at least 15%	90.0%	−4.0 pp	+9.5 pp	thin: spread 84c, open interest 303	Kalshi
US tariff rate on China imports (Jan 1, 2027): at least 30%	78.0%	0.0 pp	+15.0 pp	thin: spread 86c, open interest 329	Kalshi

Kalshi against Polymarket

Same outcome on both venues, raw prices; gaps over 10 pp are flagged for review.

Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap	Check
FOMC Dec 9, 2026: 25 bps increase	80.5%	79.5%	+1.0 pp	within threshold
FOMC Dec 9, 2026: No change	19.5%	18.5%	+1.0 pp	within threshold
Fed hike in 2026 (Kalshi: the year's last scheduled meeting, Dec 9, 2026)	82.0%	82.5%	−0.5 pp	within threshold
Fed cuts in 2026: exactly 0	97.2%	98.0%	−0.8 pp	within threshold
FOMC Jan 27, 2027: No change	77.5%	78.5%	−1.0 pp	within threshold
FOMC Jan 27, 2027: 25 bps increase	19.5%	17.5%	+2.0 pp	within threshold

Ladder checks: the odds of "above X" must not rise with X. Not monotonic (repaired before the implied mean): Fed funds upper bound after the meeting (Jan 27, 2027) (thin); Fed funds upper bound after the meeting (Apr 28, 2027) (thin); Unemployment rate, next report (Nov 2026) (thin); 10Y Treasury yield at year-end (Dec 31, 2026) (thin); US tariff rate on China imports (Jan 1, 2027) (thin).

Sentiment: CNN Fear & Greed Index

32, fear; 29th percentile of the past year (249 daily scores); lowest since 2026-11-06.

Against	Then	Change
1D	22	+9.6
1W	19	+12.3
1M	44	−11.8
1Y	20	+11.3

Component	Score	Rating	1W	Indicator now (1W ago)	Against our signals
Market momentum	14	extreme fear	n/a	7,550 (7,541); avg 7,590	duplicate: S&P 500 (SPY)
Stock price strength	45	fear	n/a	−3.14 (−4.22)	new: 52-week highs vs lows
Stock price breadth	48	neutral	n/a	625 (557)	new: McClellan volume breadth (ours is price-based)
Put and call options	17	extreme fear	n/a	0.84 (0.81)	new: put/call ratio
Market volatility	50	neutral	n/a	19.92 (21.15); avg 17.01	duplicate: VIX
Junk bond demand	42	fear	n/a	1.23 (1.24)	duplicate: HYG vs LQD
Safe haven demand	5	extreme fear	n/a	−5.77 (−6.13)	duplicate: havens vs equity, SPY / TLT

A 0 to 100 sentiment gauge (under 25 extreme fear, over 75 extreme greed), shown as data and used here as a sentiment read, not as a force: four of its seven components duplicate signals the fit already uses. Components: market momentum: S&P 500 against its 125-day average; stock price strength: NYSE stocks at 52-week highs against those at 52-week lows; stock price breadth: McClellan Volume Summation Index (NYSE up vs down volume); put and call options: 5-day average put/call ratio; market volatility: VIX against its 50-day average; junk bond demand: junk minus investment-grade bond yields; safe haven demand: 20-day stock minus Treasury bond returns. Component 1W score changes start once our own daily snapshots reach a week back. Data as of 2026-11-09T23:59:52+00:00. Source: CNN Fear & Greed Index. Index by CNN Business; shown with attribution.

Polymarket odds (all tracked)

Market-implied probabilities as published by the venue, shown as plain data. They are not a MarketMoves view.

Fed Decision in December? 25 bps increase 79.5% 1D change +3.0 pp Polymarket
Fed Decision in December? No change 18.5% 1D change −4.0 pp Polymarket
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 82.5% 1D change +7.0 pp Polymarket
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? 0 (0 bps) 98.0% 1D change 0.0 pp Polymarket
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) Pause-Hike-Pause 75.0% 1D change +4.5 pp Polymarket
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) Pause-Pause-Pause 10.0% 1D change +1.0 pp Polymarket
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) Pause-Pause-Hike 8.8% 1D change −3.7 pp Polymarket
Fed Decision in January? No change 78.5% 1D change +1.0 pp Polymarket
Fed Decision in January? 25 bps increase 17.5% 1D change −1.0 pp Polymarket

Day delta

Big moves on the day Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): +3.54%; Russell 2000 (IWM ETF): +3.23%; Tech (XLK): +3.73%; Industrials (XLI): +3.82%; Semiconductors (SMH): +5.05%; Developed ex-US (EFA): +3.01%; Japan (EWJ): +3.65%; Germany (EWG): +3.39%; VIX (Cboe): −22.31%
Drawdown shifts Industrials (XLI): 5y drawdown moved from −12.5% to −9.2% (+3.3 pp); Semiconductors (SMH): 5y drawdown moved from −30.6% to −27.1% (+3.5 pp); Japan (EWJ): 5y drawdown moved from −11.1% to −7.9% (+3.2 pp); Germany (EWG): 5y drawdown moved from −6.8% to −3.6% (+3.2 pp); VIX (Cboe): 5y drawdown moved from −51.0% to −61.9% (−10.9 pp)
New 5-year highs T-bill ETF (SGOV) at 100.50
Odds moves Another Fed rate hike in 2026? (Yes): 75.5% to 82.5% (+7.0 pp)

Fixed thresholds: 1D moves beyond 3% (prices) or 10 bp (yields), new 5-year highs, 5y drawdown shifts over 3 pp, odds moves of 5 pp or more.

Signals

Relative performance in percentage points (first leg minus second). States use fixed thresholds: trend, reversal, emerging.

Pair	State	2D	1W	1M	3M	6M
AI leaders basket vs S&P 500 (SPY)	reversal, turned 5 sessions ago	+0.7 pp	+2.0 pp	−6.5 pp	−5.8 pp	−8.1 pp
Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY)	reversal, turned 2 sessions ago	+6.2 pp	−4.2 pp	−15.9 pp	−13.9 pp	−16.5 pp
Tech (XLK) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU)	reversal, turned 2 sessions ago	+4.4 pp	−2.7 pp	−22.4 pp	−16.6 pp	−16.1 pp
Cyclicals (XLY, XLF, XLI, XLB) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU)	reversal, turned 2 sessions ago	+1.3 pp	−0.5 pp	−3.3 pp	−9.0 pp	−9.5 pp
Equal-weight (RSP) vs cap-weight S&P 500 (SPY)	reversal, turned 2 sessions ago	−0.8 pp	+0.4 pp	+7.0 pp	+3.2 pp	+6.5 pp
Small caps (IWM) vs S&P 500 (SPY)	reversal, turned 18 sessions ago	+1.6 pp	+1.1 pp	+4.6 pp	−3.7 pp	−2.6 pp
Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF)	reversal, turned 2 sessions ago	−2.6 pp	+2.3 pp	+13.7 pp	+9.9 pp	+19.8 pp
S&P 500 (SPY) vs developed ex-US (EFA)	emerging	+0.5 pp	−1.1 pp	−4.8 pp	+0.9 pp	0.0 pp
Emerging (EEM) vs S&P 500 (SPY)	reversal, turned 2 sessions ago	+2.4 pp	−0.2 pp	−5.3 pp	−4.6 pp	−12.3 pp
High yield (HYG) vs IG corporate (LQD)	none	+0.3 pp	−0.1 pp	−1.7 pp	−0.6 pp	+1.5 pp
Regional banks (KRE) vs S&P 500 (SPY)	emerging	−1.1 pp	−0.5 pp	+9.8 pp	−0.7 pp	+3.8 pp
Copper (CPER) vs gold (GLD)	reversal, turned 6 sessions ago	+1.8 pp	−7.3 pp	−3.4 pp	+1.1 pp	+12.9 pp
Energy stocks (XLE) vs WTI crude	trend	+0.2 pp	−2.1 pp	−3.7 pp	−7.8 pp	+17.5 pp
Discretionary (XLY) vs staples (XLP)	reversal, turned 12 sessions ago	+3.3 pp	+2.3 pp	−1.7 pp	−6.3 pp	−8.3 pp

Dollar (UUP ETF), % change: 1D −0.5%; 2D +0.2%; 1W 0.0%; 1M −0.2%; 3M +3.2%; 6M +6.0%; 1Y +6.4%
EM FX stress: average % change of USD against BRL, INR, KRW, MXN, ZAR (up = EM currencies weaker): 1D −0.6%; 2D −0.7%; 1W −0.3%; 1M +1.5%; 3M +2.4%; 6M +2.3%; 1Y −0.7%
10Y real yield (Treasury), change in bp: 1D +3 bp; 2D +6 bp; 1W +4 bp; 1M −25 bp; 3M +26 bp; 6M +73 bp; 1Y +83 bp
10Y breakeven (nominal minus real yield), change in bp: 1D −1 bp; 2D −2 bp; 1W −7 bp; 1M −11 bp; 3M −3 bp; 6M −23 bp; 1Y −6 bp
Everything-down breadth: tracked assets that fell, havens included (SPY, IWM, XLK, SMH, KRE, EFA, EEM, EWJ, HYG, LQD, EMB, TIP, ZROZ, GOLD, CPER, DBC, BTC): 1D 3 of 17 down (18%); 1W 9 of 17 down (53%); 1M 9 of 17 down (53%); 3M 14 of 17 down (82%); 6M 12 of 17 down (71%); 1Y 4 of 17 down (24%)
Havens: mean % change of gold and long zero-coupon Treasuries (ZROZ): 1D +1.01%; 1W +2.66%; 1M +4.06%; 3M −1.78%; 6M −8.24%; 1Y −2.75%
Havens (gold, ZROZ) minus the S&P 500 (SPY): 1D −1.4 pp; 1W +2.6 pp; 1M +7.4 pp; 3M +0.6 pp; 6M −10.8 pp; 1Y −16.1 pp
Carry unwind: EM FX basket (USD per unit) minus USD/JPY, % change (up = yen up against EM): 1D −0.2 pp; 1W −0.3 pp; 1M +1.8 pp; 3M +2.3 pp; 6M +1.5 pp; 1Y −3.6 pp
Crowded theme (AI leaders basket, SMH) minus the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP): 1D +1.6 pp; 1W −1.4 pp; 1M −18.2 pp; 3M −13.0 pp; 6M −18.8 pp; 1Y +3.9 pp
Sector breadth: 1D 11 of 11 sector ETFs up (100%); 1W 7 of 11 sector ETFs up (64%); 1M 7 of 11 sector ETFs up (64%)
Unusual volume: Staples (XLP) 2.25 times its 60-day average, Discretionary (XLY) 2.25 times its 60-day average, Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) 2.16 times its 60-day average, Tech (XLK) 2.14 times its 60-day average, Health care (XLV) 1.99 times its 60-day average. Volume proxies, not fund-flow data: ETF dollar volume (close x shares traded) over the last 5 sessions against the 60 sessions before.

Sources and data dates

Alpha Vantage (adjusted daily closes, EIA spot oil as a driver, FX, crypto, macro): S&P 500 (SPY), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Dividend (SCHD), Dow (DIA ETF), Russell 2000 (IWM ETF), Tech (XLK), Health care (XLV), Financials (XLF) and 45 more. Latest data 2026-11-09
CNBC quotes (front-month WTI and Brent futures settlements; intraday Treasury yields and oil): WTI crude (front-month futures), Brent crude (front-month futures). Latest data 2026-11-06
US Treasury daily par yield curve: US 3M bill, US 2Y, US 10Y, US 20Y, US 30Y, 2s10s spread. Latest data 2026-11-09
Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey: 30Y mortgage (weekly, published Thursdays), 30Y mortgage rate. Latest data 2026-11-05
Cboe VIX daily history: VIX (Cboe). Latest data 2026-11-09
New York Fed SOFR: SOFR (NY Fed, published next day). Latest data 2026-11-06
US Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI, unemployment, payrolls): Unemployed (level). Latest data 2026-10-01
US Treasury daily real yield curve: 10Y real yield (TIPS), 10Y breakeven (nominal minus real). Latest data 2026-11-09
Polymarket public market data: Odds
Kalshi public market data (event-contract prices, shown as data): Fed path, Inflation, Jobs, Growth and recession, Markets, Policy. Latest data 2026-11-09
CNN Business Fear & Greed Index (sentiment; index by CNN Business, shown with attribution): Sentiment (Fear & Greed Index and its 7 components). Latest data 2026-11-09

Proxies

Dow (DIA ETF): DIA ETF stands in for the Dow index
Russell 2000 (IWM ETF): IWM ETF stands in for the Russell 2000 index
Gold (GLD ETF): GLD ETF stands in for spot gold
Silver (SLV ETF): SLV ETF stands in for spot silver
Copper (CPER ETF): CPER ETF stands in for copper futures
Dollar (UUP ETF): UUP ETF stands in for the dollar index (DXY)

Crypto and prediction-market figures are shown as plain data. Horizon and drawdown rules: methodology.

Not investment advice. MarketMoves describes past market data and reported news for general information. Figures can be delayed or wrong; check the original source before relying on them.