Market overview: Friday, November 6, 2026

Last published close: Thursday, November 5, 2026 · All days

Liquidity: Net liquidity flat, +$26 bn over 3M; crowding into AI unwinding. Liquidity and crowding

Money rotation (1M): no clear rotation (3 of 7 signals for equities → bonds (safe debt), 1 against). Money rotation

So far on Friday, November 6, 2026 (as of 11:00 PT): S&P 500 (SPY) +0.80%; US 10Y 4.85% (+1 bp on the day); VIX (Cboe) 24.57 (−12.81% on the day); Dollar (UUP ETF) +0.73%; Gold (GLD ETF) −0.49%; Bitcoin (USD) −0.37%. Largest 1D move in the table: VIX (Cboe) −12.81%.

Today (1D): Chips led a partial rebound so far as the VIX eased

The today brief is on the Today page.

Drivers

Underlying forces

The matrix of forces by horizon is on the Today page.

Fed path (Kalshi odds): next meeting (Dec 9, 2026) hike 78.2% (+12.7 pp 1D), no change 20.3%, cut 1.5%; expected upper bound after Dec 9, 2026 4.19%, after Apr 28, 2027 4.31% (now 4.00%). All event odds.

Sentiment (CNN Fear & Greed): 23, extreme fear (1W 26, 1M 47). Index by CNN Business; components.

Forced deleveraging or fear? 1D: mixed / unclear (best candidate crowded unwind: 4 of 8 for, 1 against, 0 n/a, core not met); forced deleveraging 0 of 11 for, 2 against (core not met); growth scare 0 of 10 for, 1 against (core not met). 1W: mixed / unclear (best candidate crowded unwind: 6 of 8 for, 0 against, 0 n/a, core not met); forced deleveraging 0 of 11 for, 4 against (core not met); growth scare 4 of 9 for, 0 against (core not met).

Evidence for and against

1D Forced deleveraging: for none; against assets down 29%, VIX −3.6 pts (z −1.9). Crowded unwind: for assets down 29%, HYG - LQD +0.08 pp (z +0.3), KRE - SPY −0.69 pp (z −0.5), AI-theme force 0.81; against AI leaders and SMH - RSP +2.50 pp (z +1.5). Growth scare: for none; against Fed hike odds +12.70 pp (z +2.5).

1W Forced deleveraging: for none; against havens down 1 of 4, assets down 65%, CNN Fear & Greed 23, gold +5.03% (z +1.8). Crowded unwind: for havens down 1 of 4, assets down 65%, HYG - LQD −0.35 pp (z −0.6), KRE - SPY +2.75 pp (z +0.8), AI-theme force 0.80, CNN Fear & Greed 23; against none. Growth scare: for havens down 1 of 4, CNN Fear & Greed 23, gold +5.03% (z +1.8), copper - gold −8.24 pp (z −2.3); against none.

FINRA margin debt 2026-09: $1,480 bn, +1.8% m/m (info only: monthly and older than the window; a monthly fall of 5% or more is consistent with deleveraging).

Rules: forced deleveraging core: at least 85% of the 17 tracked assets down and at least 3 of 4 havens down; crowded unwind core: crowded theme minus RSP at least 2 sd down and at most 1 of 4 havens down; growth scare core: cyclicals minus defensives at least 1 sd down and the 2Y yield down by at least 1 sd; a class qualifies when all core items for, at least 4 items for, for minus against at least 3; n/a never counts. z = the move in standard deviations of its own same-length changes over 3 years.

What each force means
  • AI capex / profitability doubts: Investors doubt the payoff of AI spending: AI leaders and semis lag, defensives and the average stock gain relative ground.
  • Oil supply shock: A supply disruption lifts crude: oil and commodities rise, breakevens climb, consumers lag.
  • Hawkish Fed repricing: Markets price more Fed rate increases: the 2Y leads yields higher, the curve flattens, the dollar firms and long-duration assets lag.
  • Rotation from bonds to stocks: Money moves from bonds into equities: stocks beat bonds, yields rise and trading shifts toward equity ETFs.
  • Liquidity expansion: Central banks and the Treasury add money to the system (asset purchases, a falling TGA or reverse repo balance): net liquidity rises, financial conditions loosen, risk assets rise broadly and speculative, long-duration assets rise most while the dollar softens.
  • Real-yield shock: Real yields jump: long-duration assets, gold and growth stocks fall behind, the dollar firms.
  • Inflation pressure easing: Inflation compensation falls: breakevens and nominal yields ease, commodities soften, long duration gains.
  • Rotation from stocks to bonds: Money moves from equities into safe debt (Treasuries, aggregate bonds): stocks lag bonds, Treasury yields fall and trading shifts toward bond ETFs.
  • Recession / growth fear: Investors price weaker growth: cyclicals, small caps, copper and oil fall behind, credit weakens and long yields fall.
  • De-risking to cash: Investors move money out of equities and other risk assets and park it in cash: money market fund assets jump, stocks fall, volatility and the dollar rise, credit weakens. Consistent with money moving from equities to cash.
  • Forced deleveraging / margin calls: Leveraged holders must raise cash at any price (margin calls, collateral calls, basis and carry trades unwound): they cut whatever can be cut, so havens and winners fall with everything else. Gold and long Treasuries fall, credit spreads widen, crypto, EM debt and carry targets fall hard, funding currencies (yen, dollar) rise, volatility jumps and almost every asset is down.

Status quo board

What the market favours in each group, and whether that is changing. States: intact, challenged, shifting, new status quo. Causes month by month: what drove each month.

  • US stocks: Value and dividend payers lead growth: SCHD is up 38.0% over 1Y against 4.3% for QQQ, a lead that narrowed to 3.0 pp in June and was regained, with 83% of it in the last month. intact (path of Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF) over 1Y: volatile / round-trip)
  • Sectors: Defensive sectors are favoured over tech: tech (XLK) vs defensives is −27.1 pp over 1M, and most of the 6M gap came in the last month after tech led until early October. intact (path of Tech (XLK) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) over 6M: volatile / round-trip)
  • AI and style themes: Semis have lost their lead: they trail the market by 24.0 pp over 1M and 16.9 pp over 3M, and the lag is re-accelerating after a 1Y lead that peaked at 75.9 pp in June round-tripped to 15.6 pp. intact (path of Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY) over 1Y: volatile / round-trip)
  • AI leaders and QQQ: The AI platform leaders lag the market again: the basket trails by 8.2 pp over 6M and 7.4 pp over 1M, after the 6M lag narrowed into a 0.5 pp lead in early October; 97% of it came in the last month. intact (path of AI leaders basket vs S&P 500 (SPY) over 6M: volatile / round-trip)
  • Foreign markets: Emerging markets lag the US: EEM trails the S&P 500 by 10.1 pp over 1M and 12.6 pp over 6M, reversing a 6M lead of 6.3 pp in June; 84% of the 6M gap came in the last month. intact (path of Emerging (EEM) vs S&P 500 (SPY) over 6M: volatile / round-trip)
  • Crypto: Crypto is out of favour: bitcoin is 39.1% below its 5-year high and down 26.9% over 1Y. intact
  • Commodities: Oil is priced for a war-driven supply shock: WTI spot is up 61.3% over 1Y (as of 2026-11-03). shifting. Challenger: Crude is losing its war premium: Brent spot fell 13.1% over the week and 21.0% over 1M (as of 2026-11-03), and energy (XLE) lost 12.0% in November so far.
  • Rates: Higher for longer: the market prices more Fed increases, with the 2Y up 83 bp over 1Y and Polymarket odds of 65.5% for another 2026 increase. challenged. Challenger: Long yields are falling: the 10Y is down 47 bp over 1M and 6 bp on the day, and Polymarket odds of a December increase fell to 65.5% from 77.5%.
  • Credit: Credit is calm but softening: high yield trails IG by 2.3 pp over 1M, while regional banks have regained their lead, beating the market by 8.1 pp. intact (path of High yield (HYG) vs IG corporate (LQD) over 1M: built then held)
  • Dollar and volatility: The dollar is firm on Fed rate-increase pricing: UUP is up 5.6% over 1Y. intact

Asset table: monthly change

Each cell is the change during that calendar month (month to date for the current month).

Prices, FX, crypto, commodities and ratios: % change from the last close on or before the previous month-end to the last close on or before the month-end (Nov MTD: to the latest close, 2026-11-06). Rate rows, marked (Δ level, pp), show the change in the rate's level during the month in percentage points with 2 decimals; spread rows, marked (Δ level, bp), in basis points; their Last column is the current level. Cells carry no unit suffix. A rise carries a + sign and a fall a − sign. Hover or focus a cell for the two closes behind it. Trailing 90-day values are on trends, with the 1D to 1Y changes on trends and horizons. 1 series carry an "as of" date (latest print older than the 2026-11-06 close). Select a column heading to sort within each group.

Change during each calendar month (month to date for the current month), grouped by asset class; % for prices, rate rows change in level in pp, spread rows in bp
AssetLastMonthly change: % for prices; rate rows pp, spread rows bp
Nov MTDOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJanDecNov 25
Us Equity status quo intact 1D to 1Y
S&P 500 (SPY)12-month story738.85−2.2−0.9−0.3+2.70.0−1.0+5.3+10.5−4.9−0.9+1.5+0.1+0.2
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)12-month story658.58−4.6−6.7+3.3+4.2−6.6−0.1+10.6+15.7−4.8−2.3+1.2−0.7−1.6
Dividend (SCHD)12-month story35.28−1.4+10.0−6.0+4.2+5.6−1.7+1.3+4.5−2.6+6.5+8.7+0.4+3.1
Dow (DIA ETF)12-month story514.46−0.5+1.7−4.1+1.5+0.4+2.6+2.9+7.3−5.2+0.3+1.8+0.9+0.4
Russell 2000 (IWM ETF)12-month story274.23−1.8+0.5−5.2+0.9−3.1+3.7+4.5+12.1−5.0+0.7+5.5−0.7+1.0
Sectors status quo intact 1D to 1Y
Tech (XLK)12-month story165.33−7.9−8.3+5.1+6.4−8.0−0.1+19.8+20.0−4.1−3.6−0.1+0.8−4.8
Health care (XLV)12-month story185.37+0.3+9.8−0.9+4.9+2.5+6.6+2.4−0.4−8.1+3.50.0−1.4+9.3
Financials (XLF)12-month story57.48+1.7+5.8−7.1+1.4+6.2+4.3−1.1+5.6−3.5−3.8−2.4+3.1+1.8
Energy (XLE)12-month story61.93−11.6+13.9−3.3+7.4+12.1−5.0−5.6−2.6+10.3+9.5+14.2−0.3+2.6
Staples (XLP)12-month story90.49+1.2+10.9−4.5−0.1+2.4+0.9−1.7+2.8−8.4+7.8+7.5−1.3+4.1
Discretionary (XLY)12-month story118.46+2.7+6.0−6.4+0.4−1.0−2.8+2.1+8.6−6.6−3.6+1.5+1.2−1.4
Utilities (XLU)12-month story43.31−0.3+10.1−5.9−4.8−2.2+2.7−5.2+2.1−3.2+10.4+1.3−5.1+1.7
Materials (XLB)12-month story52.28−0.9+8.3−7.1+4.5−0.8−0.3−0.6+3.0−6.0+8.4+8.6+2.0+4.4
Real estate (XLRE)12-month story44.19+2.4+5.5−6.5−2.1+2.4+1.0−0.9+8.7−6.2+5.8+2.7−2.1+1.9
Communication (XLC)12-month story105.36+5.5−10.0−0.1+3.0+1.0−7.2−0.7+5.1−5.8−1.7+2.0+2.3+0.5
Industrials (XLI)12-month story163.11−2.6+0.3−4.4−2.6−2.9+7.3−0.8+7.9−8.4+7.1+6.7+1.3−0.9
Themes status quo intact 1D to 1Y
Semiconductors (SMH)12-month story463.96−11.2−14.2+9.4+3.0−17.6+9.5+18.2+32.2−5.7+0.7+12.0+2.5−3.0
Software (IGV)12-month story99.15−4.9−2.1−3.2+16.3+4.4−10.9+21.2+4.8−1.9−9.7−14.6+1.5−9.9
AI leaders basket (6 stocks, equal weight)12-month story7,514.24−0.8−8.9+3.8+1.5+7.1−10.7+4.8+21.2−5.0−7.9+1.3−1.90.0
Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP)12-month story216.73−0.7+4.9−4.8+2.0+1.1+2.3+2.6+6.0−6.0+3.5+3.4+0.4+1.9
Value (IWD)12-month story258.560.0+4.3−3.1+2.0+3.9+2.2+2.9+8.2−4.9+2.6+4.5+0.7+2.6
Growth (IWF)12-month story112.10−4.7−6.1+2.2+3.7−4.7−2.8+7.2+11.9−5.2−3.4−1.6−0.6−1.9
Foreign status quo intact 1D to 1Y
Developed ex-US (EFA)12-month story102.11−1.2−0.5−3.3+1.8+1.6+0.7+2.4+5.3−7.8+4.6+4.9+2.7+0.7
Developed (VEA)12-month story68.04−2.0−1.7−2.9+3.3−0.9−0.2+4.3+7.4−8.6+6.1+6.0+3.2+1.0
Emerging (EEM)12-month story59.45−2.6−8.6−0.3+4.6−6.3+0.2+7.2+12.7−9.3+5.9+8.0+2.2−1.8
Emerging (VWO)12-month story55.42−0.2−6.4−1.8+3.0−1.6−0.2+1.6+9.0−7.0+2.9+5.0+0.9−1.2
Japan (EWJ)12-month story88.58−4.7−4.7+1.6+3.8−0.9+0.9+4.3+5.5−8.6+7.8+6.2+0.9−0.5
China large-cap (FXI)12-month story34.98+5.7−2.8−3.8−3.1+15.5−9.2−4.7+2.5−3.7−5.9+3.4−2.1−0.5
Germany (EWG)12-month story41.70−0.4+1.4−6.6+3.2+3.6−2.9+2.8+6.5−10.5+2.9+1.4+3.9+0.5
Crypto status quo intact 1D to 1Y
Bitcoin (USD)12-month story75,687−2.2−7.3+6.4+25.0+7.4−20.5−3.6+11.8+1.9−14.9−10.1−3.2−17.5
Ethereum (USD)12-month story2,227.35−1.1−16.1+8.8+32.6+18.6−21.7−11.2+7.3+7.1−19.8−17.4−0.8−22.2
Commodity status quo shifting 1D to 1Y
Gold (GLD ETF)12-month story373.66+5.0−6.6−6.8+9.9+0.9−11.7−1.5−1.5−11.1+8.7+12.3+2.2+5.4
Silver (SLV ETF)12-month story47.09+5.6−18.2−9.3+14.8−2.1−21.7+2.5−2.2−19.8+12.7+17.1+25.8+16.4
WTI crude (front-month futures), live (CNBC)12-month story90.05−13.5+15.2+5.4+1.3+21.8−20.4−16.9+3.6+51.3+2.8+13.6−1.9−4.0
Brent crude (front-month futures), live (CNBC)12-month story97.51−17.1+13.6+14.4+0.4+23.6−20.8−19.3−3.7+63.3+2.5+16.2−3.7−2.9
Copper (CPER ETF)12-month story37.73−3.2−2.0−0.5+1.1+4.9−2.9+6.4+6.1−6.6+1.2+4.2+8.3+2.4
Rates status quo challenged 1D to 1Y
US 3M bill, live (CNBC) (Δ level, pp)12-month story4.18%+0.02−0.04+0.29+0.08−0.04+0.18+0.01−0.02+0.030.000.00−0.21−0.01
US 2Y, live (CNBC) (Δ level, pp)12-month story4.50%−0.06−0.32+0.54+0.06+0.14+0.16+0.10+0.09+0.41−0.14+0.050.00−0.13
US 10Y, live (CNBC) (Δ level, pp)12-month story4.85%−0.09−0.35+0.540.00+0.31−0.01+0.05+0.10+0.33−0.29+0.08+0.16−0.09
US 20Y, live (CNBC) (Δ level, pp)12-month story5.27%−0.07−0.34+0.44−0.04+0.35−0.05+0.01+0.09+0.31−0.25+0.03+0.17−0.03
US 30Y, live (CNBC) (Δ level, pp)12-month story5.25%−0.06−0.33+0.39−0.02+0.36−0.08+0.01+0.10+0.24−0.23+0.03+0.170.00
2s10s spread, live (CNBC) (Δ level, bp)12-month story+36 bp−2−30−6+17−17−5+1−8−15+3+16+4
30Y mortgage (weekly, published Thursdays) (Δ level, pp)12-month story7.18%−0.06+0.21+0.370.00+0.17−0.04+0.23−0.08+0.40−0.12−0.05−0.08+0.06
Credit status quo intact 1D to 1Y
IG corporate (LQD)12-month story104.56+0.7+2.5−3.4+0.4−2.2+0.1+0.9+0.3−2.1+1.4+0.3−0.7+0.9
High yield (HYG)12-month story77.27+0.3+0.7−2.7+0.9−0.2+0.1+0.4+1.5−1.00.0+0.6+0.5+0.7
EM dollar debt (EMB)12-month story92.09+0.5+1.8−3.7+0.6−1.4+0.4+1.1+2.5−3.5+1.6+0.3+0.3+0.5
Alts 1D to 1Y
Managed futures (CTA)12-month story26.75−10.7+4.3+2.5+4.7+5.1−9.7−10.3+7.6+0.4+8.3+3.3+0.2+0.7
FX / Vol status quo intact 1D to 1Y
Dollar (UUP ETF)new 5y high12-month story29.13+0.4+0.8+2.3−0.2−0.8+2.7+1.1−1.5+2.6+0.9−0.7−0.90.0
USD/JPY12-month story158.37+0.5+0.1−1.5+1.4−3.1+2.1+1.7−1.3+1.7+0.8−1.2+0.3+1.4
USD/MXN12-month story18.6317−0.7+3.9+6.4−2.0−0.9+0.8−0.7−2.6+4.2−1.4−3.1−1.6−1.4
VIX (Cboe)12-month story24.57+26.5+18.8+9.5−6.7−2.8+7.4−9.3−33.1+27.1+13.9+16.7−8.6−6.2
Stress 1D to 1Y
TIPS (TIP)12-month story106.31−0.2+2.5−2.60.0−0.7−0.5+0.2+1.1−1.4+1.3+0.5−0.6+0.2
Long zero-coupon (ZROZ)12-month story59.27+1.5+9.4−8.3+1.2−8.2+2.4+0.8−1.7−6.3+7.3−0.9−4.7−0.5
T-bill ETF (SGOV)new 5y high12-month story100.49+0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3
Commodities (DBC)12-month story31.52−6.2+4.0+3.3+6.3+10.5−9.6−5.2+7.4+15.3+2.7+9.3+0.2+0.8
KRE/SPY ratio12-month story0.0980+2.8+4.6−4.7−5.8+1.6+9.3−5.3−3.0+3.2−2.1+4.6+3.5+4.8
SOFR (NY Fed, published next day) (Δ level, pp)as of 2026-11-0412-month story3.94%−0.01+0.05+0.22+0.02−0.02+0.05−0.03−0.020.000.00−0.19−0.25−0.10

Each group's full card (where we are, how we got here, direction of travel, causes, drivers, speed, tailwinds and headwinds, reasoning and today's review): status quo by asset.

This week (1W): A week that turned election relief into an AI rout

The this week brief is on the Today page.

Drivers

One month (1M): AI doubts overturned tech leadership in a month

As of last close (2026-11-05); not rewritten intraday.

Over the month AI spending doubts, the regime force now strengthening, pulled tech 29.7 pp behind defensives and semis 24.0 pp behind the market, while the equal-weight index beat the cap-weighted one by 8.1 pp.

Health care (XLV) rose 10.5% and staples (XLP) 12.6% over the month, while the AI leaders basket fell 12.8% and semis lost 29.4%. Value beat growth by 17.2 pp.

Rates do not explain it: the 10Y fell 47 bp and the real yield 35 bp, which usually favours long-duration growth, yet growth lagged. The money-rotation reading shows no clear rotation over 1M; the best candidate, equities to bonds, has 3 of 7 signals confirming.

Drivers

Three months (3M): Oil and AI doubts set the quarter, and risk-off joined

As of last close (2026-11-05); not rewritten intraday.

Over three months the oil supply shock and AI spending doubts remain the regime forces, and a flight-to-safety force turned active today: the VIX is up 78.2% and cyclicals trail defensives by 10.3 pp.

WTI spot is up 21.6% over three months (as of 2026-11-03) and commodities (DBC) 10.5%. Semis trail the market by 16.9 pp and value leads growth by 12.1 pp, with most of both gaps built in the last month.

The S&P 500's 90-day change is −5.0%, down from +1.4% at the end of October, and the VIX's is +89.1%. Net liquidity was flat over 3M (+$26 bn), so it does not explain the drop.

Drivers

Six months (6M): Rate-increase pricing and AI doubts rewarded value

As of last close (2026-11-05); not rewritten intraday.

Over six months hawkish Fed repricing and the real-yield shock rewarded value over growth, and AI doubts added to it; a recession-fear force turned active today. Value's lead round-tripped: it narrowed to 1.7 pp in early October before surging.

Value beat growth by 20.3 pp over six months, but 91% of that came in the last month after the lead narrowed from 13.1 pp in July to 1.7 pp in early October. The 10Y real yield is up 64 bp and the 2Y yield 53 bp.

The AI leaders basket trails the market by 8.2 pp, a lag that narrowed into a small lead in early October and was rebuilt almost entirely in the last month. Global central-bank liquidity fell 4.6% over 6M.

Drivers

One year (1Y): Oil and a Fed seen raising rates set the year

As of last close (2026-11-05); not rewritten intraday.

Over the year the oil supply shock and hawkish Fed repricing set the regime, lifting crude and short yields and rewarding value; value's lead narrowed mid-year and re-accelerated in the last month.

WTI spot is up 61.3% over the year (as of 2026-11-03). Value beat growth by 36.2 pp and SCHD rose 38.0% against 4.3% for QQQ, but both leads narrowed mid-year: SCHD's fell to 3.0 pp in June, and 83% of it came in the last month.

Semis still lead the market by 15.6 pp over the year, down from a peak of 75.9 pp in June, so most of the year's chip gain has round-tripped. Bitcoin fell 26.9%. M2 grew 5.71% year over year.

Drivers

Cross-asset read: Bonds and gold cushioned the AI rout; the dollar held

As of last close (2026-11-05); not rewritten intraday.

Across assets the day fit AI spending doubts, continuing the regime rather than a broad scare: Treasuries and gold rose, the dollar barely moved and high yield slipped only 0.31%.

The 2Y yield fell 12 bp and the 10Y 6 bp, and gold (GLD) rose 0.81%. Japan (EWJ) fell 5.97% and emerging markets (EEM) 5.79%, while China large-caps (FXI) rose 1.01% on support measures.

Polymarket odds of a December Fed increase fell to 65.5% from 77.5%, and of no change rose to 31.5%.

Drivers

  • Concerns about AI curbs spilled into South Korean and Taiwanese markets; Chinese stocks held up on support measures. Source: TradingView (article)

Credit and stress watch: Credit softened at the margin; banks held up

As of last close (2026-11-05); not rewritten intraday.

Credit is softening, not breaking: high yield trailed IG by 2.3 pp over the month, more than the shared forces explain, while regional banks beat the market by 8.1 pp.

HYG fell 0.31% and LQD rose 0.15% on a day the S&P 500 lost 4.41%, and the VIX ended at 28.18. SOFR printed 3.94% (as of 2026-11-04), 4 bp above IORB.

Regional banks beat the market by 2.0 pp on the day. Managed futures (CTA) are down 10.8% over the week as trend positions in oil and chips reversed.

Drivers

Macro drivers, prediction-market odds, the day delta, the signals table and sources and data dates for this day: data page.

Not investment advice. MarketMoves describes past market data and reported news for general information. Figures can be delayed or wrong; check the original source before relying on them.