Market moves: Monday, November 9, 2026

Close of Monday, November 9, 2026: S&P 500 (SPY) +2.37%; US 10Y 4.88% (+2 bp on the day); VIX (Cboe) 19.92 (−22.31% on the day); Dollar (UUP ETF) −0.55%; Gold (GLD ETF) +1.88%; Bitcoin (USD) +0.68%. Largest 1D move in the table: VIX (Cboe) −22.31%.

Today (1D): Stocks rallied as chips rebounded and the VIX fell

No shared force is active over two sessions: the day's rally is a residual the fit leaves unexplained, led by chips, which beat the market by 6.2 pp over two days after the regime's AI-doubts slump.

The S&P 500 (SPY) rose 2.37% and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 3.54%, while semis (SMH) gained 5.05% and industrials (XLI) 3.82%. The VIX fell 22.31% to 19.92.

No clear transmission channel on the day: the leading candidate has 4 of 8 signals for but its core is not met, as the AI leaders and SMH beat the equal-weight index by 1.63 pp. Havens were not sold: gold rose 1.88%.

CNN's Fear & Greed Index rose 9.6 points to 32, still fear. Kalshi odds of a December Fed increase rose 4.6 pp to 79.6%.

Drivers

Underlying forces

Shared forces acting on all assets at once, inferred in code from the whole pattern of moves; blank = not active. How we judge causes.

Force1Y6M3M1M1W2 daysShort-run trend
AI capex / profitability doubtsmildmildmoderatebuilding (since 2026-11-04)
Oil supply shockmildfading
Hawkish Fed repricingmildmildfading
Liquidity expansionmildfading
Real-yield shockmildfading
Inflation pressure easingmildfading
Relief / risk-onmildfading
Share of moves explained33%42%31%39%6%22%

Fed path (Kalshi odds): next meeting (Dec 9, 2026) hike 79.6% (+4.6 pp 1D), no change 18.9%, cut 1.5%; expected upper bound after Dec 9, 2026 4.20%, after Apr 28, 2027 4.32% (now 4.00%). All event odds.

Sentiment (CNN Fear & Greed): 32, fear (1W 19, 1M 44). Index by CNN Business; components.

Forced deleveraging or fear? 1D: mixed / unclear (best candidate crowded unwind: 4 of 8 for, 1 against, 0 n/a, core not met); forced deleveraging 0 of 11 for, 4 against (core not met); growth scare 2 of 10 for, 1 against (core not met). 1W: mixed / unclear (best candidate crowded unwind: 4 of 8 for, 0 against, 0 n/a, core not met); forced deleveraging 0 of 11 for, 3 against (core not met); growth scare 3 of 9 for, 0 against (core not met).

Evidence for and against

1D Forced deleveraging: for none; against havens down 1 of 4, assets down 18%, gold +1.88% (z +1.4), VIX −5.7 pts (z −3.0). Crowded unwind: for havens down 1 of 4, assets down 18%, HYG - LQD +0.23 pp (z +0.8), KRE - SPY −0.64 pp (z −0.4); against AI leaders and SMH - RSP +1.63 pp (z +1.0). Growth scare: for havens down 1 of 4, gold +1.88% (z +1.4); against cyclicals - defensives +1.08 pp (z +1.3).

1W Forced deleveraging: for none; against havens down 1 of 4, assets down 53%, gold +4.94% (z +1.7). Crowded unwind: for havens down 1 of 4, assets down 53%, HYG - LQD −0.12 pp (z −0.2), KRE - SPY −0.46 pp (z −0.1); against none. Growth scare: for havens down 1 of 4, gold +4.94% (z +1.7), copper - gold −7.33 pp (z −2.0); against none.

FINRA margin debt 2026-09: $1,480 bn, +1.8% m/m (info only: monthly and older than the window; a monthly fall of 5% or more is consistent with deleveraging).

Rules: forced deleveraging core: at least 85% of the 17 tracked assets down and at least 3 of 4 havens down; crowded unwind core: crowded theme minus RSP at least 2 sd down and at most 1 of 4 havens down; growth scare core: cyclicals minus defensives at least 1 sd down and the 2Y yield down by at least 1 sd; a class qualifies when all core items for, at least 4 items for, for minus against at least 3; n/a never counts. z = the move in standard deviations of its own same-length changes over 3 years.

What each force means
  • AI capex / profitability doubts: Investors doubt the payoff of AI spending: AI leaders and semis lag, defensives and the average stock gain relative ground.
  • Oil supply shock: A supply disruption lifts crude: oil and commodities rise, breakevens climb, consumers lag.
  • Hawkish Fed repricing: Markets price more Fed rate increases: the 2Y leads yields higher, the curve flattens, the dollar firms and long-duration assets lag.
  • Liquidity expansion: Central banks and the Treasury add money to the system (asset purchases, a falling TGA or reverse repo balance): net liquidity rises, financial conditions loosen, risk assets rise broadly and speculative, long-duration assets rise most while the dollar softens.
  • Real-yield shock: Real yields jump: long-duration assets, gold and growth stocks fall behind, the dollar firms.
  • Inflation pressure easing: Inflation compensation falls: breakevens and nominal yields ease, commodities soften, long duration gains.
  • Relief / risk-on: Investors add risk: volatility falls, stocks and credit gain, safe havens give back ground.

Status quo board

What the market favours in each group, and whether that is changing. States: intact, challenged, shifting, new status quo. Causes month by month: what drove each month.

  • US stocks: Value and dividend payers lead growth: SCHD is up 38.1% over 1Y against 11.9% for QQQ, a lead that narrowed to −0.3 pp in June and was regained, with 84% of it in the last month. intact (path of Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF) over 1Y: volatile / round-trip)
  • Sectors: Defensive sectors are favoured over tech: tech (XLK) trails defensives by 22.4 pp over 1M, while health care and staples sit 0.7% and 1.1% below their 5-year highs. intact (path of Tech (XLK) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) over 1M: volatile / round-trip)
  • AI and style themes: Semis have lost their lead: they trail the market by 15.9 pp over 1M and 13.9 pp over 3M, after a 1Y lead that peaked at 80.9 pp in June round-tripped to 18.6 pp on November 5. intact (path of Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY) over 1Y: volatile / round-trip)
  • AI leaders and QQQ: The AI platform leaders lag the market again: the basket trails by 8.1 pp over 6M and 6.5 pp over 1M, after the 6M lag narrowed to −0.1 pp on October 7; 84% of it came in the last month. intact (path of AI leaders basket vs S&P 500 (SPY) over 6M: volatile / round-trip)
  • Foreign markets: Emerging markets lag the US: EEM trails the S&P 500 by 5.3 pp over 1M and 12.3 pp over 6M, reversing a 6M lead of 4.2 pp in June; 41% of the 6M gap came in the last month. intact (path of Emerging (EEM) vs S&P 500 (SPY) over 6M: volatile / round-trip)
  • Crypto: Crypto is out of favour: bitcoin is 39.7% below its 5-year high and down 28.1% over 1Y. intact
  • Commodities: Oil is priced for a war-driven supply shock: WTI front-month futures are up 52.8% over 1Y (as of 2026-11-06). shifting. Challenger: Crude is losing its war premium: Brent fell 16.4% over the week and 2.2% over 1M (as of 2026-11-06), and energy (XLE) lost 11.5% in November so far.
  • Rates: Higher for longer: the market prices more Fed increases, with the 2Y up 101 bp over 1Y and Kalshi odds of 79.6% for a December increase. challenged. Challenger: Long yields are falling: the 10Y is down 36 bp over 1M and 3 bp over the week, and the real yield is down 25 bp over 1M.
  • Credit: Credit is calm but softening: high yield trails IG by 1.7 pp over 1M, while regional banks have regained their lead, beating the market by 9.8 pp. intact (path of High yield (HYG) vs IG corporate (LQD) over 1M: steady)
  • Dollar and volatility: The dollar is firm on Fed rate-increase pricing: UUP is up 6.4% over 1Y and sits 0.5% below its 5-year high. intact

Asset table: monthly change

Each cell is the change during that calendar month (month to date for the current month).

Prices, FX, crypto, commodities and ratios: % change from the last close on or before the previous month-end to the last close on or before the month-end (Nov MTD: to the latest close, 2026-11-09). Rate rows, marked (Δ level, pp), show the change in the rate's level during the month in percentage points with 2 decimals; spread rows, marked (Δ level, bp), in basis points; their Last column is the current level. Cells carry no unit suffix. A rise carries a + sign and a fall a − sign. Hover or focus a cell for the two closes behind it. Trailing 90-day values are on trends, with the 1D to 1Y changes on trends and horizons. 3 series carry an "as of" date (latest print older than the 2026-11-09 close). Select a column heading to sort within each group.

Change during each calendar month (month to date for the current month), grouped by asset class; % for prices, rate rows change in level in pp, spread rows in bp
AssetLastMonthly change: % for prices; rate rows pp, spread rows bp
Nov MTDOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJanDecNov 25
Us Equity status quo intact 1D to 1Y
S&P 500 (SPY)12-month story752.69−0.4−0.9−0.3+2.70.0−1.0+5.3+10.5−4.9−0.9+1.5+0.1+0.2
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)12-month story679.35−1.6−6.7+3.3+4.2−6.6−0.1+10.6+15.7−4.8−2.3+1.2−0.7−1.6
Dividend (SCHD)12-month story35.65−0.4+10.0−6.0+4.2+5.6−1.7+1.3+4.5−2.6+6.5+8.7+0.4+3.1
Dow (DIA ETF)12-month story523.33+1.2+1.7−4.1+1.5+0.4+2.6+2.9+7.3−5.2+0.3+1.8+0.9+0.4
Russell 2000 (IWM ETF)12-month story282.51+1.1+0.5−5.2+0.9−3.1+3.7+4.5+12.1−5.0+0.7+5.5−0.7+1.0
Sectors status quo intact 1D to 1Y
Tech (XLK)12-month story170.88−4.8−8.3+5.1+6.4−8.0−0.1+19.8+20.0−4.1−3.6−0.1+0.8−4.8
Health care (XLV)12-month story188.33+1.9+9.8−0.9+4.9+2.5+6.6+2.4−0.4−8.1+3.50.0−1.4+9.3
Financials (XLF)12-month story57.99+2.6+5.8−7.1+1.4+6.2+4.3−1.1+5.6−3.5−3.8−2.4+3.1+1.8
Energy (XLE)12-month story61.94−11.5+13.9−3.3+7.4+12.1−5.0−5.6−2.6+10.3+9.5+14.2−0.3+2.6
Staples (XLP)12-month story90.89+1.6+10.9−4.5−0.1+2.4+0.9−1.7+2.8−8.4+7.8+7.5−1.3+4.1
Discretionary (XLY)12-month story121.01+4.9+6.0−6.4+0.4−1.0−2.8+2.1+8.6−6.6−3.6+1.5+1.2−1.4
Utilities (XLU)12-month story43.79+0.8+10.1−5.9−4.8−2.2+2.7−5.2+2.1−3.2+10.4+1.3−5.1+1.7
Materials (XLB)12-month story52.94+0.4+8.3−7.1+4.5−0.8−0.3−0.6+3.0−6.0+8.4+8.6+2.0+4.4
Real estate (XLRE)12-month story44.64+3.4+5.5−6.5−2.1+2.4+1.0−0.9+8.7−6.2+5.8+2.7−2.1+1.9
Communication (XLC)12-month story107.36+7.5−10.0−0.1+3.0+1.0−7.2−0.7+5.1−5.8−1.7+2.0+2.3+0.5
Industrials (XLI)12-month story168.89+0.9+0.3−4.4−2.6−2.9+7.3−0.8+7.9−8.4+7.1+6.7+1.3−0.9
Themes status quo intact 1D to 1Y
Semiconductors (SMH)12-month story487.41−6.7−14.2+9.4+3.0−17.6+9.5+18.2+32.2−5.7+0.7+12.0+2.5−3.0
Software (IGV)12-month story101.46−2.7−2.1−3.2+16.3+4.4−10.9+21.2+4.8−1.9−9.7−14.6+1.5−9.9
AI leaders basket (6 stocks, equal weight)12-month story7,674.60+1.3−8.9+3.8+1.5+7.1−10.7+4.8+21.2−5.0−7.9+1.3−1.90.0
Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP)12-month story220.95+1.2+4.9−4.8+2.0+1.1+2.3+2.6+6.0−6.0+3.5+3.4+0.4+1.9
Value (IWD)12-month story262.61+1.5+4.3−3.1+2.0+3.9+2.2+2.9+8.2−4.9+2.6+4.5+0.7+2.6
Growth (IWF)12-month story115.01−2.2−6.1+2.2+3.7−4.7−2.8+7.2+11.9−5.2−3.4−1.6−0.6−1.9
Foreign status quo intact 1D to 1Y
Developed ex-US (EFA)12-month story104.96+1.5−0.5−3.3+1.8+1.6+0.7+2.4+5.3−7.8+4.6+4.9+2.7+0.7
Developed (VEA)12-month story69.89+0.6−1.7−2.9+3.3−0.9−0.2+4.3+7.4−8.6+6.1+6.0+3.2+1.0
Emerging (EEM)12-month story61.030.0−8.6−0.3+4.6−6.3+0.2+7.2+12.7−9.3+5.9+8.0+2.2−1.8
Emerging (VWO)12-month story56.61+2.0−6.4−1.8+3.0−1.6−0.2+1.6+9.0−7.0+2.9+5.0+0.9−1.2
Japan (EWJ)12-month story91.48−1.5−4.7+1.6+3.8−0.9+0.9+4.3+5.5−8.6+7.8+6.2+0.9−0.5
China large-cap (FXI)12-month story34.66+4.8−2.8−3.8−3.1+15.5−9.2−4.7+2.5−3.7−5.9+3.4−2.1−0.5
Germany (EWG)12-month story42.99+2.7+1.4−6.6+3.2+3.6−2.9+2.8+6.5−10.5+2.9+1.4+3.9+0.5
Crypto status quo intact 1D to 1Y
Bitcoin (USD)12-month story75,259−2.8−7.3+6.4+25.0+7.4−20.5−3.6+11.8+1.9−14.9−10.1−3.2−17.5
Ethereum (USD)12-month story2,132.15−5.3−16.1+8.8+32.6+18.6−21.7−11.2+7.3+7.1−19.8−17.4−0.8−22.2
Commodity status quo shifting 1D to 1Y
Gold (GLD ETF)12-month story379.53+6.7−6.6−6.8+9.9+0.9−11.7−1.5−1.5−11.1+8.7+12.3+2.2+5.4
Silver (SLV ETF)12-month story48.14+7.9−18.2−9.3+14.8−2.1−21.7+2.5−2.2−19.8+12.7+17.1+25.8+16.4
WTI crude (front-month futures)as of 2026-11-0612-month story90.83−12.8+15.2+5.4+1.3+21.8−20.4−16.9+3.6+51.3+2.8+13.6−1.9−4.0
Brent crude (front-month futures)as of 2026-11-0612-month story98.32−16.4+13.6+14.4+0.4+23.6−20.8−19.3−3.7+63.3+2.5+16.2−3.7−2.9
Copper (CPER ETF)12-month story38.43−1.4−2.0−0.5+1.1+4.9−2.9+6.4+6.1−6.6+1.2+4.2+8.3+2.4
Rates status quo challenged 1D to 1Y
US 3M bill (Δ level, pp)12-month story4.24%+0.08−0.04+0.29+0.08−0.04+0.18+0.01−0.02+0.030.000.00−0.21−0.01
US 2Y (Δ level, pp)12-month story4.56%0.00−0.32+0.54+0.06+0.14+0.16+0.10+0.09+0.41−0.14+0.050.00−0.13
US 10Y (Δ level, pp)12-month story4.88%−0.06−0.35+0.540.00+0.31−0.01+0.05+0.10+0.33−0.29+0.08+0.16−0.09
US 20Y (Δ level, pp)12-month story5.29%−0.05−0.34+0.44−0.04+0.35−0.05+0.01+0.09+0.31−0.25+0.03+0.17−0.03
US 30Y (Δ level, pp)12-month story5.26%−0.05−0.33+0.39−0.02+0.36−0.08+0.01+0.10+0.24−0.23+0.03+0.170.00
2s10s spread (Δ level, bp)12-month story+32 bp−6−30−6+17−17−5+1−8−15+3+16+4
30Y mortgage (weekly, published Thursdays) (Δ level, pp)12-month story7.18%−0.06+0.21+0.370.00+0.17−0.04+0.23−0.08+0.40−0.12−0.05−0.08+0.06
Credit status quo intact 1D to 1Y
IG corporate (LQD)12-month story104.67+0.8+2.5−3.4+0.4−2.2+0.1+0.9+0.3−2.1+1.4+0.3−0.7+0.9
High yield (HYG)12-month story77.51+0.6+0.7−2.7+0.9−0.2+0.1+0.4+1.5−1.00.0+0.6+0.5+0.7
EM dollar debt (EMB)12-month story92.54+1.0+1.8−3.7+0.6−1.4+0.4+1.1+2.5−3.5+1.6+0.3+0.3+0.5
Alts 1D to 1Y
Managed futures (CTA)12-month story26.33−12.1+4.3+2.5+4.7+5.1−9.7−10.3+7.6+0.4+8.3+3.3+0.2+0.7
FX / Vol status quo intact 1D to 1Y
Dollar (UUP ETF)12-month story28.97−0.1+0.8+2.3−0.2−0.8+2.7+1.1−1.5+2.6+0.9−0.7−0.90.0
USD/JPY12-month story157.90+0.2+0.1−1.5+1.4−3.1+2.1+1.7−1.3+1.7+0.8−1.2+0.3+1.4
USD/MXN12-month story18.5276−1.3+3.9+6.4−2.0−0.9+0.8−0.7−2.6+4.2−1.4−3.1−1.6−1.4
VIX (Cboe)12-month story19.92+2.6+18.8+9.5−6.7−2.8+7.4−9.3−33.1+27.1+13.9+16.7−8.6−6.2
Stress 1D to 1Y
TIPS (TIP)12-month story106.03−0.5+2.5−2.60.0−0.7−0.5+0.2+1.1−1.4+1.3+0.5−0.6+0.2
Long zero-coupon (ZROZ)12-month story59.12+1.2+9.4−8.3+1.2−8.2+2.4+0.8−1.7−6.3+7.3−0.9−4.7−0.5
T-bill ETF (SGOV)new 5y high12-month story100.50+0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.3
Commodities (DBC)12-month story30.98−7.8+4.0+3.3+6.3+10.5−9.6−5.2+7.4+15.3+2.7+9.3+0.2+0.8
KRE/SPY ratio12-month story0.0976+2.4+4.6−4.7−5.8+1.6+9.3−5.3−3.0+3.2−2.1+4.6+3.5+4.8
SOFR (NY Fed, published next day) (Δ level, pp)as of 2026-11-0612-month story3.89%−0.06+0.05+0.22+0.02−0.02+0.05−0.03−0.020.000.00−0.19−0.25−0.10

Each group's full card (where we are, how we got here, direction of travel, causes, drivers, speed, tailwinds and headwinds, reasoning and today's review): status quo by asset.

This week (1W): Election week: oil's premium unwound and gold rose

No shared force is active over the week: the largest moves are residuals, led by commodities and gold, which coverage ties to oil's war premium unwinding after the midterms, a break from the regime's AI-doubts story.

Brent fell 16.4% and WTI 12.8% over the week (as of 2026-11-06); energy (XLE) lost 7.9% and commodities (DBC) 4.6%. Gold rose 4.9% and copper trailed it by 7.3 pp.

Communication (XLC) gained 7.1% while semis (SMH) lost 4.1%. Over the week there is no clear transmission channel: the leading candidate has 4 of 8 signals for and none against, but its core is not met.

The money-rotation reading shows no clear rotation over 1W; the best candidate, cash and bonds into equities, has 3 of 9 signals confirming and 2 against.

Drivers

One month (1M): AI doubts keep defensives far ahead of tech

Over the month AI spending doubts, the regime force, pulled tech 22.4 pp behind defensives and semis 15.9 pp behind the market, while the equal-weight index beat the cap-weighted one by 7.0 pp.

Health care (XLV) rose 10.3% and staples (XLP) 8.9% over the month, while the AI leaders basket fell 9.8% and semis 19.2%. Value beat growth by 13.7 pp.

Rates do not explain it: the 10Y fell 36 bp and the real yield 25 bp, which usually favours long-duration growth, yet growth lagged. The money-rotation reading shows no clear rotation over 1M; the best candidate, equities to bonds, has 3 of 7 signals confirming.

Drivers

Three months (3M): AI doubts lead the quarter

Over three months AI spending doubts are the only active force, continuing the regime: semis trail the market by 13.9 pp and value leads growth by 9.9 pp, with most of both gaps built in the last month.

Cyclicals trail defensives by 9.0 pp and the VIX is up 33.7% over three months. WTI futures are up 17.5% (as of 2026-11-06) and commodities (DBC) 7.2%.

The S&P 500's 90-day change is −2.1%, down from +1.4% at the end of October. Net liquidity was flat over 3M (+$57 bn), so it does not explain the drop.

Drivers

Six months (6M): Rate-increase pricing and AI doubts rewarded value

Over six months hawkish Fed repricing and the real-yield shock rewarded value over growth, and AI doubts added to it. Value's lead round-tripped: it narrowed to 3.5 pp in early October before surging.

Value beat growth by 19.8 pp over six months, but 73% of that came in the last month after the lead narrowed from 14.6 pp in July to 3.5 pp in early October. The 10Y real yield is up 73 bp and the 2Y yield 66 bp.

The AI leaders basket trails the market by 8.1 pp, a lag that narrowed to −0.1 pp in early October and was rebuilt in the last month. Easing inflation pressure pulled the breakeven down 23 bp, and global central-bank liquidity fell 4.7%.

Drivers

One year (1Y): Oil and a Fed seen raising rates set the year

Over the year the oil supply shock and hawkish Fed repricing set the regime, lifting crude and short yields and rewarding value; a risk-on force turned active today. Value's lead narrowed mid-year and re-accelerated in the last month.

WTI futures are up 52.8% over the year (as of 2026-11-06) and the 2Y yield 101 bp. SCHD rose 38.1% against 11.9% for QQQ, but the lead narrowed to −0.3 pp in June, and 84% of it came in the last month.

Semis still lead the market by 27.1 pp over the year, down from a peak of 80.9 pp in June, so most of the year's chip gain has round-tripped. Bitcoin fell 28.1%. M2 grew 5.71% year over year.

Drivers

Cross-asset read: Asia followed the chip rally; gold and Fed odds rose

No shared force is active over two sessions; the cross-asset moves are residuals: Japan rose with chips, gold rose as the dollar slipped, and Fed increase odds firmed.

Japan (EWJ) rose 3.65%, Germany (EWG) 3.39% and EEM 2.87%, while China (FXI) fell 0.83%. Gold (GLD) rose 1.88% and the dollar (UUP) fell 0.55%.

Polymarket odds of a December Fed increase rose to 79.5% from 76.5%, and Kalshi odds put it at 79.6%; the Kalshi-implied upper bound after the December meeting is 4.20%.

Drivers

Credit and stress watch: Credit softened at the margin; banks held up

Credit is softening, not breaking: high yield trailed IG by 1.7 pp over the month while regional banks beat the market by 9.8 pp.

HYG rose 0.36% and LQD 0.13% on the day, and the VIX fell to 19.92. SOFR printed 3.89% (as of 2026-11-06), 1 bp below IORB.

Managed futures (CTA) are down 12.1% in November so far as trend positions in oil and chips reversed. Coverage flagged heavier scrutiny of how AI infrastructure is financed.

Drivers

Macro drivers, prediction-market odds, the day delta, the signals table and sources and data dates for this day: data page.

Not investment advice. MarketMoves describes past market data and reported news for general information. Figures can be delayed or wrong; check the original source before relying on them.