Liquidity and crowding: Monday, November 9, 2026

Net liquidity flat, +$57 bn over 3M; global CB liquidity (Fed+ECB+BoJ) flat, −1.7% over 3M; M2 5.71% y/y; US stock market cap $77.82 tn, −$0.56 tn in October (a price-index estimate, so all of it is price); Z.1 net equity issuance +$142 bn in 2026 Q2 against a +$11.18 tn change in value; money market fund assets −$134 bn in September; NFCI −0.52 (last published 2026-04-24); AI crowding: no clear signal (0 of 3 crowding, 2 of 3 unwinding conditions); AI share of dollar volume 41.8%.

How much money the central banks and the Treasury leave in the financial system, how loose financial conditions are, and where trading is concentrating. Back to the 2026-11-09 market moves page.

Money rotation

Is money moving out of equities into cash or debt, or the reverse? A fixed-rule classifier in code reads flow evidence (ETF implied flows, money market fund assets), volume proxies (dollar-volume shares, not fund flows) and price confirmation. Each result is "consistent with" a rotation, never a measured flow. A class needs a confirming outflow item and a confirming inflow item, at least 3 confirming items and confirming minus contradicting of at least 2; n/a items never confirm.

1W: no clear rotation (best candidate cash/bonds → equities: 3 of 9 confirm, 2 contradict, 1 n/a)
1M: no clear rotation (best candidate equities → bonds (safe debt): 3 of 7 confirm, 1 contradict, 2 n/a)
3M: no clear rotation (best candidate equities → credit: 2 of 5 confirm, 0 contradict, 2 n/a)

Money rotation by horizon
Horizon	Classification	Confirming	Contradicting	n/a	Items tested	Best candidate
1W	no clear rotation	3	2	1	9	cash/bonds → equities
1M	no clear rotation	3	1	2	7	equities → bonds (safe debt)
3M	no clear rotation	2	0	2	5	equities → credit

ETF implied-flow history building since 2026-11-05 (Alpha Vantage ETF_PROFILE net assets; one point per last_updated stamp, so flows exist only once two stamps are available and only at that cadence); until then ETF flow items are n/a and never confirm. ETF net-assets refresh cadence seen so far: weekly.

Evidence, 1 week (1W)

Rotation evidence 1W
Evidence (unit; threshold)	Value	Role
Money market fund assets (OFR), change ($ bn; threshold 40)	n/a	n/a
Cash-like ETF implied flow (SGOV, BIL) ($ bn; threshold 1)	+3.6	contradicts
Cash-like ETFs' share of dollar volume (volume proxy), change (pp; threshold 0.5)	−0.55	confirms
Treasury and aggregate bond ETF implied flow (TLT, IEF, SHY, GOVT, AGG, BND) ($ bn; threshold 3)	+18.9	contradicts
Treasury and aggregate bond ETFs' share of dollar volume (TLT, IEF, AGG; volume proxy), change (pp; threshold 2)	−1.21	neutral
Equity ETF implied flow (SPY, VTI, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM) ($ bn; threshold 3)	+147.8	confirms
Equity ETFs' share of tracked ETF dollar volume (volume proxy), change (pp; threshold 2)	+4.61	confirms
S&P 500 (SPY) price change (%; threshold 1.5)	+0.1	neutral
Stocks minus long Treasuries (SPY - TLT) (pp; threshold 2)	−0.20	neutral
Cash-like ETFs (SGOV, BIL) price change (info: steady = behaving as cash) (%; threshold 0.3)	+0.1	info: steady

Evidence, 1 month (1M)

Rotation evidence 1M
Evidence (unit; threshold)	Value	Role
Equity ETF implied flow (SPY, VTI, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM) ($ bn; threshold 6)	n/a	n/a
Equity ETFs' share of tracked ETF dollar volume (volume proxy), change (pp; threshold 2.5)	+3.66	contradicts
Treasury and aggregate bond ETF implied flow (TLT, IEF, SHY, GOVT, AGG, BND) ($ bn; threshold 6)	n/a	n/a
Treasury and aggregate bond ETFs' share of dollar volume (TLT, IEF, AGG; volume proxy), change (pp; threshold 2.5)	−1.45	neutral
Stocks minus long Treasuries (SPY - TLT) (pp; threshold 3)	−8.87	confirms
Stocks minus aggregate bonds (SPY - AGG) (pp; threshold 3)	−5.79	confirms
US 10-year Treasury yield, change (a fall = Treasury rally) (bp; threshold 15)	−36	confirms
Cash-like ETFs (SGOV, BIL) price change (info: steady = behaving as cash) (%; threshold 0.5)	+0.3	info: steady

Evidence, 3 months (3M)

Rotation evidence 3M
Evidence (unit; threshold)	Value	Role
Equity ETF implied flow (SPY, VTI, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM) ($ bn; threshold 12)	n/a	n/a
Equity ETFs' share of tracked ETF dollar volume (volume proxy), change (pp; threshold 3)	−4.99	confirms
Corporate credit ETF implied flow (LQD, HYG) ($ bn; threshold 4)	n/a	n/a
Corporate credit ETFs' share of dollar volume (LQD, HYG; volume proxy), change (pp; threshold 1)	+2.41	confirms
High yield minus investment grade (HYG - LQD) (pp; threshold 1.5)	−1.01	neutral
Cash-like ETFs (SGOV, BIL) price change (info: steady = behaving as cash) (%; threshold 1.2)	+0.9	info: steady

Liquidity now

US net liquidity = Fed total assets minus the Treasury General Account minus overnight reverse repo, aligned daily (the latest weekly Fed level on or before each day). Global central-bank liquidity: Fed + ECB + BoJ in USD. Changes are over 30, 91 and 182 calendar days to the latest data. State: expanding, contracting or flat on the 3M change against fixed thresholds (for the TGA, reverse repo and NFCI, the effect on liquidity: a falling balance or index counts as expanding); speed: the latest month against the 3M average pace. Units are in each row label; cells carry no suffix.

Liquidity metrics now
Metric	Level	1M	3M	6M	State	Speed	Data date
US net liquidity (Fed total assets - TGA - ON RRP) ($ tn; changes $ bn)	5.84	−37	+57	−16	flat	decelerating	2026-11-09
Fed total assets (H.4.1) ($ tn; changes $ bn)	6.75	+5	0	+39	flat	decelerating	2026-11-04
Bank reserve balances (H.4.1) ($ tn; changes $ bn)	2.96	+81	−40	−89	flat	decelerating	2026-11-04
Treasury General Account (a rise drains liquidity) ($ tn; changes $ bn)	0.91	+25	−44	+71	flat	decelerating	2026-11-06
Overnight reverse repo (a fall releases liquidity) ($ bn; changes $ bn)	0.3	−0.1	−0.7	−0.9	flat	decelerating	2026-11-09
Global central-bank liquidity (Fed + ECB + BoJ, USD) ($ tn; changes %)	17.37	−0.1	−1.7	−4.7	flat	decelerating	2026-11-09
Chicago Fed NFCI (negative = looser than average) (index; changes in points)	−0.52	−0.06	+0.05	0.00	flat	decelerating	2026-04-24 (stale)
Chicago Fed ANFCI (adjusted for the cycle) (index; changes in points)	−0.49	−0.07	+0.05	+0.07	flat	decelerating	2026-04-24 (stale)
US stock market capitalisation (Z.1 anchor scaled by price-only VTI) ($ tn; changes $ tn)	77.82	−2.32	−2.25	+2.49	falling	accelerating	2026-11-09
US stock market cap / M2 (equities relative to the money stock) (ratio; changes in ratio points)	3.32	−0.10	−0.13	+0.01	falling	accelerating	2026-11-09
Money market fund assets (OFR, monthly) ($ tn; changes $ bn)	8.40	−134	−4	+146	flat	accelerating	2026-09-30

US M2
Metric	Level, $ tn	Year over year, %	3M annualised, %	State	Speed	Data date
US M2 (H.6, seasonally adjusted)	23.41	5.71	5.96	flat	steady	2026-09-30

Funding plumbing

Funding plumbing
Measure	Value	State or date
SOFR, % (New York Fed)	3.89	2026-11-06
Interest on reserve balances (IORB), % (Federal Reserve)	3.90	effective 2026-09-17
SOFR minus IORB, bp (above zero = reserves getting scarcer)	−1	flat
Overnight reverse repo balance, effect on liquidity over 3M	0.3	flat

US stock market value and money flows

A change in market value is mostly a price change, not money flowing in. Level = the latest Z.1 quarter-end market value of US public corporate equities (all domestic sectors, LM883164115) minus ETF (LM564090005) and closed-end fund (LM554090005) shares, scaled each day by VTI's price-only close (split-adjusted, dividends not added back) relative to its close on the anchor date. Between Z.1 releases the estimate moves with prices only, so its monthly change is price by construction; net issuance (issuance minus buybacks, the money actually raised from or returned to investors) is known only quarterly, from Z.1 F.223 (not seasonally adjusted). Revaluation = change in value minus net issuance (price, new listings at market value and other volume changes). Anchor: 2026 Q2 (quarter-end 2026-06-30), $77.64 tn; VTI close on the anchor date 370.04 (2026-06-30).

What changed the market value: issuance vs price (Z.1, quarterly)

Change in value = net issuance + revaluation. Net issuance is the money actually raised from (positive) or returned to (negative, buybacks dominating) investors through the market. VTI price-implied = the previous level times VTI's price change, a cross-check of the revaluation.

Market value change decomposition
Quarter	Level, $ tn	Change, $ bn	Net issuance, $ bn	Revaluation, $ bn	VTI price-implied change, $ bn	VTI price change, %
2026 Q2	77.64	+11,178	+142	+11,036	+10,199	+15.35
2026 Q1	66.46	−3,061	−7	−3,054	−2,998	−4.31
2025 Q4	69.52	+1,529	−96	+1,625	+1,471	+2.16
2025 Q3	67.99	+5,003	−135	+5,138	+5,024	+7.98

ETF net assets and implied flows

Implied flow = change in net assets minus the previous net assets times the price-only return over the same dates. ETF implied-flow history building since 2026-11-05 (Alpha Vantage ETF_PROFILE net assets; one point per last_updated stamp, so flows exist only once two stamps are available and only at that cadence); until then ETF flow items are n/a and never confirm.

ETF net assets and implied flows
ETF	Group	Net assets, $ bn	Data date	AUM points	Flow 1W, $ bn	Flow 1M, $ bn	Flow 3M, $ bn
SPY	equity	796.9	2026-11-05	2	+25.94	n/a	n/a
VTI	equity	2,300.0	2026-11-05	2	+107.75	n/a	n/a
QQQ	equity	463.8	2026-11-05	2	+12.53	n/a	n/a
IWM	equity	75.5	2026-11-05	2	+1.08	n/a	n/a
EFA	equity	76.6	2026-11-05	2	+1.11	n/a	n/a
EEM	equity	28.2	2026-11-05	2	−0.58	n/a	n/a
TLT	bonds	47.5	2026-11-05	2	+1.05	n/a	n/a
IEF	bonds	43.5	2026-11-05	2	+1.57	n/a	n/a
SHY	bonds	27.4	2026-11-05	2	+1.07	n/a	n/a
GOVT	bonds	43.2	2026-11-05	2	+1.63	n/a	n/a
AGG	bonds	139.9	2026-11-05	2	+3.54	n/a	n/a
BND	bonds	400.6	2026-11-05	2	+10.03	n/a	n/a
LQD	credit	32.0	2026-11-05	2	+3.58	n/a	n/a
HYG	credit	17.7	2026-11-05	2	+0.96	n/a	n/a
SGOV	cash	116.8	2026-11-05	2	+4.79	n/a	n/a
BIL	cash	48.5	2026-11-05	2	−1.17	n/a	n/a

Dollar-volume shares (volume proxy, not fund flows)

Dollar-volume shares
Group	Share of tracked ETF dollar volume, 1M, %	1W change, pp	1M change, pp	3M change, pp	z vs 1 year (1M share)
Equity ETFs (SPY, QQQ, IWM, VTI)	82.75	+4.61	+3.66	−4.99	−1.0
Treasury and aggregate bond ETFs (TLT, IEF, AGG)	5.64	−1.21	−1.45	+1.91	+1.0
Credit ETFs (LQD, HYG)	7.92	−2.85	−2.02	+2.41	+0.7
Cash-like ETFs (SGOV, BIL)	3.70	−0.55	−0.19	+0.67	+1.0

Unavailable: ICI weekly fund flows (ici.org answers 403 to this server; not worked around).

Margin debt (FINRA)

Debit balances in customers' securities margin accounts at FINRA member firms, month-end, $ bn; share of US market cap = debit balances over the market-cap estimate above at the same month-end. A sharp monthly fall is consistent with deleveraging (margin calls or voluntary). FINRA margin statistics are unavailable for daily use: finra.org answers HTTP 403 to this server and blocks a real browser (Cloudflare); not worked around. History is from the Wayback Machine copy of FINRA's own file. Copy of 2026-10-16; latest month 2026-09.

FINRA margin debt
Month	Debit balances, $ bn	Month over month, %	Year over year, %	Share of US market cap, %
2026-09	1,480	+1.8	+31.4	1.88
2026-08	1,454	+2.6	+37.2	1.83
2026-07	1,417	−5.7	+38.6	1.83
2026-06	1,502	+6.1	+49.0	1.93
2026-05	1,416	+8.5	+53.7	1.83
2026-04	1,304	+6.8	+53.3	1.78
2026-03	1,221	−2.6	+38.7	1.84

Monthly change

Same layout as the main asset table. Each cell is the change in the level during that calendar month (month to date for the current month): US net liquidity and global central-bank liquidity in $ bn, M2 year over year in percentage points, NFCI in index points. Units are in each row label; cells carry no suffix; hover or focus a cell for the two levels behind it. n/a: no data within the series' release cadence. The levels at the latest data and each month-end follow.

Change in level during each calendar month
Metric	Nov MTD	Oct	Sep	Aug	Jul	Jun	May	Apr	Mar	Feb	Jan	Dec	Nov 25
US net liquidity ($ bn) (level, $ bn; Δ level, $ bn)	+48	+43	+46	−158	+69	+1	+67	−26	−51	+114	+23	+73	−20
Global CB liquidity (Fed + ECB + BoJ, USD) (level, $ bn; Δ level, $ bn)	+6	−80	−215	+3	+6	−471	−100	+284	−445	−34	+178	+53	−59
US M2 year over year (level %; Δ level, pp)	0.00	0.00	+0.11	+0.24	+0.06	−0.07	+0.84	+0.11	−0.17	+0.53	+0.02	+0.20	−0.44
Chicago Fed NFCI (level, index points; Δ level, index points)	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	−0.06	+0.05	+0.05	−0.02	−0.03	+0.01
US stock market cap (level, $ tn; Δ level, $ tn)	−0.14	−0.56	−0.82	+2.09	−0.39	+0.46	+3.81	+6.91	−3.79	−0.37	+1.10	−0.16	+0.19
US stock market cap / M2 (level, ratio; Δ level, ratio points)	−0.01	−0.02	−0.06	+0.08	−0.03	−0.04	+0.17	+0.29	−0.20	−0.02	+0.05	−0.03	+0.01
Money market fund assets (OFR month-end prints) (level, $ bn; Δ level, $ bn)	n/a	n/a	−134	+119	+11	0	+234	−84	−102	+117	−69	+242	+139

Level at the latest data and each month-end

Level at Last and month-ends
Metric	Last	Oct 31	Sep 30	Aug 31	Jul 31	Jun 30	May 31	Apr 30	Mar 31	Feb 28	Jan 31	Dec 31	Nov 30
US net liquidity ($ bn) (level, $ bn; Δ level, $ bn)	5,838	5,790	5,747	5,701	5,859	5,790	5,789	5,722	5,748	5,799	5,685	5,662	5,589
Global CB liquidity (Fed + ECB + BoJ, USD) (level, $ bn; Δ level, $ bn)	17,365	17,359	17,439	17,654	17,651	17,645	18,116	18,216	17,932	18,377	18,411	18,233	18,180
US M2 year over year (level %; Δ level, pp)	5.71	5.71	5.71	5.60	5.36	5.30	5.37	4.53	4.42	4.59	4.06	4.04	3.84
Chicago Fed NFCI (level, index points; Δ level, index points)	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	−0.52	−0.46	−0.51	−0.56	−0.54	−0.51
US stock market cap (level, $ tn; Δ level, $ tn)	77.82	77.96	78.52	79.34	77.25	77.64	77.18	73.37	66.46	70.25	70.62	69.52	69.68
US stock market cap / M2 (level, ratio; Δ level, ratio points)	3.32	3.33	3.35	3.41	3.33	3.36	3.40	3.23	2.94	3.14	3.16	3.11	3.14
Money market fund assets (OFR month-end prints) (level, $ bn; Δ level, $ bn)	n/a	n/a	8,397	8,531	8,412	8,401	8,401	8,167	8,251	8,353	8,236	8,305	8,063

Crowding: where trading concentrates

Volume-based proxies, not fund-flow data: dollar volume = close x shares traded (Alpha Vantage), summed over 21 sessions. Theme share = the theme's dollar volume as a share of all tracked US equity ETFs (US equity, sector and theme rows) plus the AI basket stocks and the other mega-caps. Volume-based proxies, not fund-flow data. Crowding into a theme: its volume share and relative performance rise while breadth narrows; unwinding: the reverse.

Theme dollar-volume shares
Theme	Share of dollar volume, %	1M change, pp	3M change, pp	z vs 1 year	Relative to SPY 1M, pp	Relative to SPY 3M, pp	Crowding state
AI leaders basket + semiconductors (SMH)	41.8	−0.6	−1.2	+0.7	−11.2	−8.9	no clear crowding signal
Other mega-caps (AAPL, TSLA)	13.9	+0.4	−0.5	−0.8	+4.8	+16.4	no clear crowding signal

Breadth

Breadth
Measure	1M (or now)	3M (or 1M earlier)
Equal-weight minus cap-weight S&P 500 (RSP - SPY), pp	+7.0	+2.6
Sectors above their 3-month average, % of 11 (now; 1M earlier)	64	27
Cross-sector dispersion of 1M returns, pp (now; 1M earlier)	7.4	3.1

Neglected assets

The weakest 3M performers against SPY whose share of all tracked-ETF dollar volume is falling.

Neglected assets
Asset	3M relative to SPY, pp	Share of tracked-ETF dollar volume, %	3M change in that share, %
Semiconductors (SMH)	−12.8	4.95	−18.0
Emerging (EEM)	−4.6	1.31	−3.0
Japan (EWJ)	−2.9	0.34	−3.0
Copper (CPER ETF)	−2.4	0.01	−11.0
Developed (VEA)	−1.5	0.61	−5.0

Forces with liquidity included

Liquidity or crowding forces are active at: Liquidity expansion (1Y). Strengths in standard deviations; liquidity and crowding forces are fitted at 1M and longer only. Source: facts.forces (the day's fit, liquidity and crowding forces included).

1Y: Oil supply shock 0.74, Liquidity expansion 0.51, Hawkish Fed repricing 0.48, Relief / risk-on 0.32. Liquidity and crowding forces: De-risking to cash 0.26, Liquidity contraction 0.00, Liquidity expansion 0.51, Narrative crowding (AI) 0.00, Re-risking out of cash 0.00, Rotation from stocks to bonds 0.00, Rotation from bonds to stocks 0.21.
6M: Hawkish Fed repricing 0.55, Real-yield shock 0.44, AI capex / profitability doubts 0.40, Inflation pressure easing 0.33. Liquidity and crowding forces: De-risking to cash 0.00, Liquidity contraction 0.00, Liquidity expansion 0.05, Narrative crowding (AI) 0.00, Re-risking out of cash 0.11, Rotation from stocks to bonds 0.00, Rotation from bonds to stocks 0.00.
3M: AI capex / profitability doubts 0.53. Liquidity and crowding forces: De-risking to cash 0.00, Liquidity contraction 0.00, Liquidity expansion 0.25, Narrative crowding (AI) 0.00, Re-risking out of cash 0.00, Rotation from stocks to bonds 0.00, Rotation from bonds to stocks 0.00.
1M: AI capex / profitability doubts 1.28. Liquidity and crowding forces: De-risking to cash 0.00, Liquidity contraction 0.00, Liquidity expansion 0.00, Narrative crowding (AI) 0.00, Re-risking out of cash 0.00, Rotation from stocks to bonds 0.00, Rotation from bonds to stocks 0.00.
1W: no force above the activity threshold. Liquidity and crowding forces: not fitted at this horizon.
2D: no force above the activity threshold. Liquidity and crowding forces: not fitted at this horizon.

Sources

Federal Reserve H.4.1 (Data Download Program): total assets, reserve balances (weekly; latest 2026-11-04): https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/
US Treasury Daily Treasury Statement: TGA closing balance (daily; latest 2026-11-06): https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/daily-treasury-statement/
New York Fed overnight reverse repo operations (daily; latest 2026-11-09): https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/reverse-repo
Federal Reserve H.6 money stock (M2, seasonally adjusted) (monthly; latest 2026-09-30): https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI, ANFCI) (weekly; latest 2026-04-24): https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/nfci/current-data
ECB Eurosystem consolidated balance sheet, total assets (weekly; latest 2026-10-30): https://data.ecb.europa.eu/data/datasets/ILM
Bank of Japan accounts, total assets (BS01 MABJMTA) (monthly; latest 2026-10-31): https://www.stat-search.boj.or.jp/
Federal Reserve interest on reserve balances (IORB) (daily; latest 2026-11-10): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reserve-balances.htm
Federal Reserve Z.1 Financial Accounts: corporate equities levels (L.223) and transactions (F.223, not seasonally adjusted) (quarterly, about 10 weeks after the quarter; latest 2026-06-30): https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI, benchmark CRSP US Total Market), price-only close via Alpha Vantage (daily; latest 2026-11-09): https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vti
OFR U.S. Money Market Fund Data Release: total MMF investments (MMF-MMF_TOT-M) (monthly, about 6 weeks after the month; latest 2026-09-30): https://www.financialresearch.gov/money-market-funds/
Alpha Vantage ETF_PROFILE net assets (16 ETFs), snapshotted daily for implied flows (as refreshed by the source; latest 2026-11-05): https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/
FINRA margin statistics: debit balances in customers' securities margin accounts (Wayback Machine copy of FINRA's file; finra.org blocks this server, so not updated daily) (monthly, about 3 weeks after the month; latest 2026-09-30): https://www.finra.org/finra-data/browse-catalog/margin-statistics

Computed by src/liquidity.py. $ bn = US$ billions. Changes over 1M/3M/6M are calendar 30/91/182 days to the latest data on or before the close. Crowding numbers are volume-based proxies, not fund-flow data.

Not investment advice. MarketMoves describes past market data and reported news for general information. Figures can be delayed or wrong; check the original source before relying on them.