Status quo by asset: Monday, November 9, 2026

For each asset group: what the market favours and why, whether that is changing, and the evidence. Back to the 2026-11-09 market moves page.

Status quo by asset

US stocks intact

1. Where we are

Value and dividend payers lead growth: SCHD is up 38.1% over 1Y against 11.9% for QQQ, a lead that narrowed to −0.3 pp in June and was regained, with 84% of it in the last month. State: intact (since 2026-10-07). SCHD sits 1.5% below its 5-year high while QQQ is 10.6% below; SCHD's 90-day lead over QQQ is 10.2 pp, up from 7.3 pp at the end of October, after the 1Y lead narrowed in June and was regained.

Path, 1Y (Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF)): value ahead of growth on 99% of sessions; gap ranged from −1.5 pp (2025-11-10) to +34.4 pp (2026-11-05); largest reversal 11.5 pp, from +26.5 pp on 2026-07-29 to +14.9 pp on 2026-10-07; 8% of the +32.5 pp gap came in the last 1W; 48% of the +32.5 pp gap came in the last 1M. Label: volatile / round-trip.

Path, 1Y (Dividend (SCHD) vs Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)): SCHD ahead of QQQ on 98% of sessions; gap ranged from −2.0 pp (2025-11-10) to +30.6 pp (2026-11-05); largest reversal 24.7 pp, from +24.4 pp on 2026-03-30 to −0.3 pp on 2026-06-18; the last 1W moved the gap −0.7 pp, against its direction; 84% of the +26.1 pp gap came in the last 1M. Label: volatile / round-trip.

2. How we got here

Rolling 90-day: SCHD minus QQQ, trailing 90-day gap: Last +10.2 pp, Oct 31 +7.3 pp, Sep 30 −2.7 pp, Aug 31 +12.5 pp, Jul 31 +3.7 pp, Jun 30 −21.4 pp, May 31 −18.7 pp, Apr 30 +0.9 pp, Mar 31 +18.7 pp, Feb 28 +18.1 pp, Jan 31 +13.6 pp, Dec 31 −0.2 pp, Nov 30 −8.9 pp. All 90-day trends

Month by month: what drove each month.

3. Direction of travel (not a forecast)

Value's lead holds on every horizon from 1W to 1Y and the 1M pace is accelerating; growth gained on the day and over two sessions.

Upcoming events that bear on this:

  • 2026-11-17: NVIDIA quarterly results (earnings calendar)
  • 2026-12-09: FOMC decision (Federal Reserve calendar)

Forward calls. Forward calls are the site's opinion, generated with AI from public data. They are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Markets are unpredictable and calls are often wrong; see our track record. Do your own research or consult a licensed adviser.

3b. Where we're heading (our call)

Value keeps beating growth over the next month. Direction: outperform; horizon 1M; confidence medium; made on 2026-11-04 (call C-2026-11-04-us-equity).

The tailwinds (inflation-linked rate pricing, the chip de-rating) are still in place and the move is accelerating. (Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF), Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY), CNBC (article))

What would prove it wrong:

  • Growth beats value over 1W

Track record for this asset: no closed calls yet. All calls and results

4. Why it is continuing or turning

Value's lead is the net effect of AI spending doubts over 1M and of hawkish Fed repricing and the real-yield shock over 6M; easing inflation pressure offsets a little over 6M. The rest of the 1M lead is residual, tied by coverage to the election.

Today's review: reaffirmed. Growth bounced for a second session as chips rallied, but value's weekly and monthly leads held. Confidence: high. Every horizon from 1W to 1Y agrees and the fitted AI-doubts force explains most of the 1M lead; growth's two-day bounce is small.

Basis: value_vs_growth over 1M; +3.1 sd observed, +1.9 sd from the shared forces, +1.2 sd asset-specific.

5. Are the driving forces changing?

6. Speed

accelerating (computed from the pace of change per trading day). Value beat growth by 2.3 pp in a week and 13.7 pp in a month; 73% of the 6M lead came in the last month, after it narrowed in early October.

7. Tailwinds and headwinds

Reasoning

Mechanism: markets price Fed rate increases and real yields are higher → cash-generating value and dividend stocks gain relative to long-duration growth → AI spending doubts hit the growth-heavy indexes, widening value's lead in the last month

Key assumptions:

  • Value keeps leading growth over 1M: holding
  • Rate-increase pricing stays in place: the 2Y yield is above its level a year ago: holding

News vs data:

  • Coverage said the stock-market rally keeps spreading beyond the largest technology companies. (cited by MarketWatch, 2026-11-09, MarketWatch, 2026-11-05) What the data shows (consistent): The data shows the equal-weight index 7.0 pp ahead of the cap-weighted one over 1M, where the fitted AI-doubts force lifts breadth, and small caps 1.1 pp ahead over the week.

Sectors intact

1. Where we are

Defensive sectors are favoured over tech: tech (XLK) trails defensives by 22.4 pp over 1M, while health care and staples sit 0.7% and 1.1% below their 5-year highs. State: intact (since 2026-10-05). Tech is 15.4% below its 5-year high; its 90-day gap to defensives is −15.3 pp, from +13.3 pp at the end of September.

Path, 1M (Tech (XLK) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU)): defensives ahead of tech on 100% of sessions; gap ranged from −25.7 pp (2026-11-05) to −1.7 pp (2026-10-13); largest reversal 6.2 pp, from −14.1 pp on 2026-10-22 to −7.9 pp on 2026-10-28; 11% of the −22.4 pp gap came in the last 1W. Label: volatile / round-trip.

2. How we got here

Rolling 90-day: XLK minus defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU), trailing 90-day gap: Last −15.3 pp, Oct 31 −3.7 pp, Sep 30 +13.3 pp, Aug 31 −11.9 pp, Jul 31 +5.1 pp, Jun 30 +38.2 pp, May 31 +42.7 pp, Apr 30 +9.2 pp, Mar 31 −10.7 pp, Feb 28 −10.4 pp, Jan 31 −9.5 pp, Dec 31 −1.5 pp, Nov 30 +1.7 pp. All 90-day trends

Month by month: what drove each month.

3. Direction of travel (not a forecast)

The gap holds over 1W, 1M, 3M and 6M and the 1M pace is accelerating; tech gained 4.4 pp on defensives over two sessions.

Upcoming events that bear on this:

  • 2026-11-17: NVIDIA quarterly results (earnings calendar)
  • 2026-12-09: FOMC decision (Federal Reserve calendar)

3b. Where we're heading (our call)

Tech keeps underperforming defensives over the next month. Direction: underperform; horizon 1M; confidence medium; made on 2026-11-04 (call C-2026-11-04-sectors).

AI hardware doubts are strengthening and the trend is accelerating across horizons. (Tech (XLK) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU), Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY), Stocktwits (article))

What would prove it wrong:

  • Tech beats defensives over 1W

Track record for this asset: no closed calls yet. All calls and results

4. Why it is continuing or turning

Tech's lag is mostly AI spending doubts, the only active 1M force; the rest is a residual that coverage ties to data-centre policy after the midterms.

Today's review: reaffirmed. Tech gained on defensives for a second day, but the weekly and monthly gaps held. Confidence: high. The gap holds from 1W to 6M and the fitted AI-doubts force explains most of it; the two-day bounce is small against it.

Basis: growth_vs_defensive over 1M; -2.9 sd observed, -1.9 sd from the shared forces, -1.0 sd asset-specific.

5. Are the driving forces changing?

6. Speed

accelerating (computed from the pace of change per trading day). Tech trails defensives by 22.4 pp in a month and 2.7 pp in a week, after a two-day bounce.

7. Tailwinds and headwinds

Reasoning

Mechanism: investors doubt the payoff of AI spending → tech, heavy in chips and AI hardware, falls → steady earners in health care, staples and utilities hold up

Key assumptions:

  • Tech keeps trailing defensives over 1M: holding

News vs data:

  • Coverage reported Microsoft winding down an Oracle computing lease and OpenAI discussing a reset of data-centre plans, adding to doubts about AI spending. (cited by TradingView (article), MarketWatch, 2026-11-06, CNBC (article)) What the data shows (consistent): The data shows semis 15.9 pp and the AI leaders 6.5 pp behind the market over 1M while value beat growth by 13.7 pp: the fitted AI-doubts force is the month's main driver.

AI and style themes intact

1. Where we are

Semis have lost their lead: they trail the market by 15.9 pp over 1M and 13.9 pp over 3M, after a 1Y lead that peaked at 80.9 pp in June round-tripped to 18.6 pp on November 5. State: intact (since 2026-11-05). SMH is 27.1% below its 5-year high; its 90-day gap to the market is −12.8 pp, from −4.8 pp at the end of October, and the 1Y lead has round-tripped from its June peak.

Path, 1Y (Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY)): semis outperforming on 94% of sessions; gap ranged from −4.5 pp (2025-11-21) to +80.9 pp (2026-06-22); largest reversal 62.3 pp, from +80.9 pp on 2026-06-22 to +18.6 pp on 2026-11-05; the last 1W moved the gap −6.1 pp, against its direction; the last 1M moved the gap −29.5 pp, against its direction. Label: volatile / round-trip.

2. How we got here

Rolling 90-day: SMH minus SPY, trailing 90-day gap: Last −12.8 pp, Oct 31 −4.8 pp, Sep 30 +0.2 pp, Aug 31 −13.2 pp, Jul 31 +2.1 pp, Jun 30 +53.1 pp, May 31 +36.9 pp, Apr 30 +21.4 pp, Mar 31 +10.8 pp, Feb 28 +15.0 pp, Jan 31 +9.7 pp, Dec 31 +4.6 pp, Nov 30 +15.1 pp. All 90-day trends

Month by month: what drove each month.

3. Direction of travel (not a forecast)

The lag holds over 1W, 1M, 3M and 6M and the 1M pace is accelerating; the two-day rebound has not reversed the 1W lag.

Upcoming events that bear on this:

  • 2026-11-17: NVIDIA quarterly results (earnings calendar)
  • 2026-12-10: Broadcom quarterly results (earnings calendar)

3b. Where we're heading (our call)

Semis keep underperforming the S&P 500 over the next month. Direction: underperform; horizon 1M; confidence medium; made on 2026-11-04 (call C-2026-11-04-themes).

The policy headwind is new and the AI capex doubts that started the move are strengthening. (Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY), Stocktwits (article), TradingNEWS (article))

What would prove it wrong:

  • Semis beat the market over 1W

Track record for this asset: no closed calls yet. All calls and results

4. Why it is continuing or turning

AI spending doubts account for the 1M lag almost entirely; the two-day rebound is a residual the shared forces leave unexplained, which coverage describes as relief after a violent slump.

Today's review: weakened. Semis rallied 5.05% for a second day of rebound, cutting the weekly lag to 4.2 pp; the monthly lag holds. Confidence: medium. The fitted AI-doubts force explains the 1M lag, but semis have rebounded for two sessions.

Basis: semis_vs_market over 1M; -2.2 sd observed, -2.6 sd from the shared forces, +0.4 sd asset-specific.

5. Are the driving forces changing?

6. Speed

accelerating (computed from the pace of change per trading day). Semis trail the market by 15.9 pp over 1M and 4.2 pp over 1W despite a 6.2 pp two-day rebound.

7. Tailwinds and headwinds

Reasoning

Mechanism: investors doubt how long AI hardware spending keeps growing → Democratic wins in data-centre states raise the prospect of curbs on new data centres → chipmakers and AI hardware fall hardest, so semis trail the market

Key assumptions:

  • Semis keep trailing the market over 1M: holding
  • Semis keep trailing the market over 3M: holding

Other explanations considered:

  • Rates hit long-duration chips: The real yield fell 28 bp over 1M while semis fell 26.6%, so a rate shock does not fit.

News vs data:

  • Coverage described a relief rebound in chips after a violent slump, which lifted Asian stocks too. (cited by MarketWatch, 2026-11-06, Yahoo Finance, 2026-11-10) What the data shows (consistent): The data shows semis beating the market by 2.7 pp on the day and 6.2 pp over two days while still trailing it by 4.2 pp over the week.
"raising fears that AI-sector growth could face regulatory scrutiny and that data-center buildouts would slow" TradingNEWS

AI leaders and QQQ intact

1. Where we are

The AI platform leaders lag the market again: the basket trails by 8.1 pp over 6M and 6.5 pp over 1M, after the 6M lag narrowed to −0.1 pp on October 7; 84% of it came in the last month. State: intact (since 2026-11-05). The basket sits 10.8% below its 5-year high; its 90-day gap to the market is −5.0 pp, from +9.5 pp at the end of September, after the lag narrowed in early October.

Path, 6M (AI leaders basket vs S&P 500 (SPY)): AI leaders lagging the market on 98% of sessions; gap ranged from −12.1 pp (2026-06-25) to +0.2 pp (2026-05-14); largest reversal 12.0 pp, from −12.1 pp on 2026-06-25 to −0.1 pp on 2026-10-07; the last 1W moved the gap +1.9 pp, against its direction; 84% of the −8.1 pp gap came in the last 1M. Label: volatile / round-trip.

2. How we got here

Rolling 90-day: AI basket minus SPY, trailing 90-day gap: Last −5.0 pp, Oct 31 −5.4 pp, Sep 30 +9.5 pp, Aug 31 −3.4 pp, Jul 31 −4.1 pp, Jun 30 −2.2 pp, May 31 +9.6 pp, Apr 30 +1.9 pp, Mar 31 −7.0 pp, Feb 28 −9.1 pp, Jan 31 −2.3 pp, Dec 31 +0.9 pp, Nov 30 +5.2 pp. All 90-day trends

Month by month: what drove each month.

3. Direction of travel (not a forecast)

The 1M and 6M lag, rebuilt in the last month after narrowing in early October, holds, but the pace is decelerating and the basket led the market over 1W.

Upcoming events that bear on this:

  • 2026-11-17: NVIDIA quarterly results (earnings calendar)

3b. Where we're heading (our call)

The AI platforms keep trailing the S&P 500 over the next month. Direction: underperform; horizon 1M; confidence low; made on 2026-11-05 (call C-2026-11-05-ai-leaders).

AI spending doubts are the only active 1M force and are strengthening, and the election bounce has already reversed. (AI leaders basket vs S&P 500 (SPY), CNBC (article))

What would prove it wrong:

  • The platforms beat the market over 1M

Track record for this asset: no closed calls yet. All calls and results

4. Why it is continuing or turning

AI spending doubts set the 1M lag; the platforms lag less than that force alone implies, so the residual runs in their favour.

Today's review: reaffirmed. The basket beat the market by 2.0 pp over the week, but the 1M lag and the 6M lag, rebuilt in the last month after narrowing in early October, held. Confidence: medium. The 1M and 6M lags agree, but the basket led over the week.

Basis: ai_vs_market over 1M; -1.4 sd observed, -2.6 sd from the shared forces, +1.2 sd asset-specific.

5. Are the driving forces changing?

6. Speed

decelerating (computed from the pace of change per trading day). The basket led the market by 2.0 pp over 1W while trailing by 6.5 pp over 1M, so the lag is no longer widening.

7. Tailwinds and headwinds

Reasoning

Mechanism: investors question the payback on the platforms' AI spending → the platforms trail the market over 6M and 1M again, after the 6M lag narrowed in early October → the election bounce reversed as the AI rout spread from chips to the platforms

Key assumptions:

  • The platforms still trail the market over 6M: holding

Other explanations considered:

  • Policy risk confined to AI infrastructure: The basket fell 5.27% on the day alongside chips, so the platforms were not spared.

News vs data:

Foreign markets intact

1. Where we are

Emerging markets lag the US: EEM trails the S&P 500 by 5.3 pp over 1M and 12.3 pp over 6M, reversing a 6M lead of 4.2 pp in June; 41% of the 6M gap came in the last month. State: intact (since 2026-06-22). EEM is 14.3% below its 5-year high; its 90-day gap to the US is −4.6 pp, from −1.0 pp at the end of September, after the 6M lead of June reversed.

Path, 6M (Emerging (EEM) vs S&P 500 (SPY)): emerging markets behind the US on 93% of sessions; gap ranged from −14.0 pp (2026-11-05) to +4.2 pp (2026-06-22); largest reversal 9.1 pp, from −4.9 pp on 2026-06-05 to +4.2 pp on 2026-06-22; 2% of the −12.3 pp gap came in the last 1W; 41% of the −12.3 pp gap came in the last 1M. Label: volatile / round-trip.

2. How we got here

Rolling 90-day: EEM minus SPY, trailing 90-day gap: Last −4.6 pp, Oct 31 −6.2 pp, Sep 30 −1.0 pp, Aug 31 −6.1 pp, Jul 31 −3.5 pp, Jun 30 +5.9 pp, May 31 +1.0 pp, Apr 30 +4.1 pp, Mar 31 +8.2 pp, Feb 28 +16.2 pp, Jan 31 +6.7 pp, Dec 31 +0.4 pp, Nov 30 +2.7 pp. All 90-day trends

Month by month: what drove each month.

3. Direction of travel (not a forecast)

The lag holds over 1M and 6M and the pace is accelerating; over 1W EEM was level with the US, and China (FXI) gained 4.4%.

Upcoming events that bear on this:

  • 2026-11-17: NVIDIA quarterly results (earnings calendar)

3b. Where we're heading (our call)

Emerging markets keep underperforming the US over the next month. Direction: underperform; horizon 1M; confidence low; made on 2026-11-05 (call C-2026-11-05-foreign).

The chip de-rating in Asia is strengthening and the lag is accelerating. (Emerging (EEM) vs S&P 500 (SPY), TradingView (article), MarketWatch, 2026-11-05)

What would prove it wrong:

  • EEM beats the US over 1W

Track record for this asset: no closed calls yet. All calls and results

4. Why it is continuing or turning

Most of the 1M lag is residual to the shared forces, tied by coverage to the chip de-rating in Asia; over 6M, Fed rate-increase pricing adds to it.

Today's review: reaffirmed. EEM rose with the chip rally, narrowing the 1M gap from 7.2 pp on November 5 to 5.3 pp; the lag holds. Confidence: medium. Coverage links Asia's drop to AI curbs, but most of the 1M lag is unexplained by the shared forces and the gap narrowed on the day.

Basis: em_vs_us over 1M; -1.5 sd observed, +0.0 sd from the shared forces, -1.5 sd asset-specific.

5. Are the driving forces changing?

6. Speed

accelerating (computed from the pace of change per trading day). EEM trails the US by 5.3 pp over 1M and 12.3 pp over 6M, a 6M gap that reversed a June lead; over 1W it is level.

7. Tailwinds and headwinds

  • Headwind: EM equities: the chip de-rating in Asia (asset-specific: -1.5 sd not explained by the shared forces) (TradingView (article), MarketWatch, 2026-11-05)
  • Headwind: EM equities: Fed rate-increase pricing (force: Hawkish Fed repricing) (US 2Y)

Reasoning

Mechanism: the AI hardware de-rating hits chip-heavy Asian markets → concerns about AI curbs after the midterms spill into Korea and Taiwan → emerging markets trail the US, while China holds up on support measures

Key assumptions:

  • EEM keeps trailing the US over 1M: holding

Crypto intact

1. Where we are

Crypto is out of favour: bitcoin is 39.7% below its 5-year high and down 28.1% over 1Y. State: intact (since 2025-11-04). Bitcoin is at 75,259; its 90-day change is +18.5%, down from +35.9% at the end of September.

2. How we got here

Month by month: what drove each month.

3. Direction of travel (not a forecast)

Down over 1W, 1M, 6M and 1Y; the 3M rebound is fading and the pace is decelerating.

Upcoming events that bear on this:

  • 2026-12-09: FOMC decision (Federal Reserve calendar)

3b. Where we're heading (our call)

No open call. Track record for this asset: no closed calls yet. All calls

4. Why it is continuing or turning

Over six months Fed rate-increase pricing and higher real yields weigh on non-yielding, high-beta assets; bitcoin barely joined the day's stock rally.

Today's review: reaffirmed. Bitcoin lagged the stock rally; the 1Y decline and 1M fall hold. Confidence: medium. The 1Y and 1M declines agree, though the 3M change is still positive.

Basis: BTC over 6M; -0.1 sd observed, -1.0 sd from the shared forces, +0.8 sd asset-specific.

5. Are the driving forces changing?

  • Hawkish Fed repricing: steady (force: Hawkish Fed repricing, impact -0.6 sd) (US 2Y)
  • Real-yield shock: steady (force: Real-yield shock, impact -0.4 sd) (10Y real yield (Treasury))

6. Speed

decelerating (computed from the pace of change per trading day). The 3M gain of 16.1% is fading as bitcoin fell 8.8% over 1M.

7. Tailwinds and headwinds

  • Headwind: Bitcoin: Fed rate-increase pricing (force: Hawkish Fed repricing, impact -0.6 sd) (Bitcoin (USD))
  • Headwind: Bitcoin: higher real yields (force: Real-yield shock, impact -0.4 sd) (Bitcoin (USD))

Reasoning

Mechanism: markets price Fed rate increases and real yields are higher → non-yielding, high-beta assets lose appeal → bitcoin falls over 1Y and trails stocks

Key assumptions:

  • Bitcoin is down over 1Y: holding

Commodities shifting

1. Where we are

Oil is priced for a war-driven supply shock: WTI front-month futures are up 52.8% over 1Y (as of 2026-11-06). State: shifting (since 2026-10-05). WTI futures are 26.6% below their 5-year high; energy (XLE) lost 11.5% in November so far.

Challenger: Crude is losing its war premium: Brent fell 16.4% over the week and 2.2% over 1M (as of 2026-11-06), and energy (XLE) lost 11.5% in November so far. (since 2026-10-05)

2. How we got here

Month by month: what drove each month.

3. Direction of travel (not a forecast)

The 3M rise has turned into a fall over 1W and 1M; the latest crude print is as of 2026-11-06.

Upcoming events that bear on this:

  • 2026-12-09: FOMC decision (Federal Reserve calendar)

3b. Where we're heading (our call)

Brent keeps falling over the next week. Direction: down; horizon 1W; confidence low; made on 2026-11-09 (call C-2026-11-09-commodity).

Coverage reports crude extending losses as fears of strikes on Iran ease, and the weekly fall has not reversed. (Brent crude (front-month futures), FXEmpire, 2026-11-10, TradingView (article))

What would prove it wrong:

  • Brent rises over 1W
  • Commodity tone turns up: copper beats gold over 1W

Track record for this asset: no closed calls yet. All calls and results

4. Why it is continuing or turning

Over 1Y the oil supply shock carries crude; the week's drop in commodities is a residual that coverage ties to hopes of an end to the war and easing strike fears.

Today's review: revised. Commodities fell again and coverage now ties crude's slide to easing strike fears; the call is re-grounded on that coverage. Confidence: low. Crude prints lag by a session and the 1Y and 1W signals point in opposite directions.

Basis: WTI over 1Y; +2.0 sd observed, +1.6 sd from the shared forces, +0.4 sd asset-specific.

5. Are the driving forces changing?

6. Speed

decelerating (computed from the pace of change per trading day). Brent rose 19.2% over 3M but fell 16.4% over 1W.

7. Tailwinds and headwinds

Reasoning

Mechanism: the Iran war restricts crude supply → crude is up sharply over 1Y → easing strike fears and hopes of an end to the war now pull crude back

Key assumptions:

  • Brent keeps falling over 1M: holding

Other explanations considered:

  • Weaker demand: The October jobs report beat estimates, so a demand slump fits worse than a fading war premium.

News vs data:

  • Coverage linked the drop in oil to easing fears of strikes on Iran and hopes of an end to the war, which helped airlines. (cited by FXEmpire, 2026-11-10, TradingView (article)) What the data shows (consistent): The data shows energy (XLE) down 7.9%, commodities (DBC) 4.6% and Brent 16.4% over the week (as of 2026-11-06).

Rates challenged

1. Where we are

Higher for longer: the market prices more Fed increases, with the 2Y up 101 bp over 1Y and Kalshi odds of 79.6% for a December increase. State: challenged (since 2026-10-05). The 10Y is at 4.88% and the 2Y at 4.56%; the 10Y's 90-day change is +18 bp.

Challenger: Long yields are falling: the 10Y is down 36 bp over 1M and 3 bp over the week, and the real yield is down 25 bp over 1M. (since 2026-10-05)

2. How we got here

  • 2026-09-30: September: the Fed's first hike since 2023 lifted short rates and long yields. (what drove September 2026, US 10Y)
  • 2026-10-31: October: the 10Y fell 0.35 pp. (US 10Y)
  • 2026-11-06: The October jobs report beat estimates. (CNBC (article))
  • 2026-11-09: Fed officials voiced concern that inflation is proving harder to contain; Kalshi odds of a December increase rose to 79.6%. (CNBC (article))

Month by month: what drove each month.

3. Direction of travel (not a forecast)

Short yields rose on the day while long yields are down over 1W and 1M after rising over 3M to 1Y; the pace is decelerating.

Upcoming events that bear on this:

  • 2026-11-10: October CPI report (BLS)
  • 2026-12-09: FOMC decision (Federal Reserve calendar)

3b. Where we're heading (our call)

No open call. Track record for this asset: no closed calls yet. All calls

4. Why it is continuing or turning

Over 1Y hawkish Fed repricing holds short yields up; over 6M easing inflation pressure pulls long yields down, offsetting the real-yield shock.

Today's review: reaffirmed. Kalshi odds of a December increase rose 4.6 pp to 79.6% and the 2Y rose 5 bp; long yields are still down over 1M, so the challenge stands. Confidence: medium. Rate-increase pricing firmed again, but long yields are still down over 1M.

Basis: UST10Y over 6M; +1.3 sd observed, +0.6 sd from the shared forces, +0.8 sd asset-specific.

5. Are the driving forces changing?

6. Speed

decelerating (computed from the pace of change per trading day). The 10Y rose 77 bp over 1Y but fell 36 bp over 1M.

7. Tailwinds and headwinds

  • Tailwind: Higher yields: Fed rate-increase pricing (force: Hawkish Fed repricing, impact +0.6 sd) (US 2Y)
  • Tailwind: Higher yields: higher real yields (force: Real-yield shock, impact +0.7 sd) (10Y real yield (Treasury))
  • Headwind: Higher yields: inflation pressure easing (force: Inflation pressure easing, impact -0.5 sd) (10Y breakeven (nominal minus real yield))

Reasoning

Mechanism: inflation runs above the Fed's goal → markets price further Fed increases → short yields stay well above their level a year ago

Key assumptions:

  • The 2Y yield is above its level a year ago: holding
  • Long yields keep falling over 1M (the challenge persists): holding

Other explanations considered:

  • A growth scare: The jobs report beat estimates and regional banks beat the market over 1M, so falling long yields fit easing inflation pressure better.

News vs data:

  • Coverage said Fed officials worry inflation is proving harder to contain ahead of the October CPI report, after a strong jobs report. (cited by CNBC (article), CNBC (article), CNBC, 2026-11-09) What the data shows (partly consistent): The data shows the 2Y up 5 bp and the real yield up 3 bp on the day, and the fitted Fed force is active over 1Y; the dollar, however, fell 0.5%.
    "Federal Reserve officials are increasingly concerned that inflation pressures elsewhere in the economy are proving harder to contain." CNBC
"Central bankers are weighing whether to resume raising interest rates in December" CNBC

Credit intact

1. Where we are

Credit is calm but softening: high yield trails IG by 1.7 pp over 1M, while regional banks have regained their lead, beating the market by 9.8 pp. State: intact (since 2026-05-04). HYG is 1.5% below its 5-year high; the KRE/SPY ratio is 39.6% below its 5-year high.

Path, 1M (High yield (HYG) vs IG corporate (LQD)): IG ahead of high yield (risk aversion) on 100% of sessions; gap ranged from −2.0 pp (2026-11-05) to −0.1 pp (2026-10-12); largest reversal 0.8 pp, from −2.0 pp on 2026-10-22 to −1.2 pp on 2026-10-28; 8% of the −1.7 pp gap came in the last 1W. Label: steady.

Path, 1M (Regional banks (KRE) vs S&P 500 (SPY)): regional banks ahead on 100% of sessions; gap ranged from +0.1 pp (2026-10-13) to +10.6 pp (2026-11-05); largest reversal 2.1 pp, from +7.4 pp on 2026-10-23 to +5.3 pp on 2026-10-28; the last 1W moved the gap −0.5 pp, against its direction. Label: steady.

Path, 1M (High yield (HYG) vs IG corporate (LQD)): IG ahead of high yield on 100% of sessions; gap ranged from −2.0 pp (2026-11-05) to −0.1 pp (2026-10-12); largest reversal 0.8 pp, from −2.0 pp on 2026-10-22 to −1.2 pp on 2026-10-28; 8% of the −1.7 pp gap came in the last 1W. Label: steady.

2. How we got here

Rolling 90-day: HYG minus LQD, trailing 90-day gap: Last −1.0 pp, Oct 31 −0.5 pp, Sep 30 +3.0 pp, Aug 31 +2.6 pp, Jul 31 +1.7 pp, Jun 30 +0.6 pp, May 31 +1.7 pp, Apr 30 +1.0 pp, Mar 31 0.0 pp, Feb 28 +0.1 pp, Jan 31 +1.3 pp, Dec 31 +1.3 pp, Nov 30 −1.4 pp. All 90-day trends

Month by month: what drove each month.

3. Direction of travel (not a forecast)

High yield trails IG over 1W and 1M, an accelerating but still small gap; it beat IG on the day.

Upcoming events that bear on this:

  • 2026-12-09: FOMC decision (Federal Reserve calendar)

3b. Where we're heading (our call)

High yield keeps trailing investment grade over the next month. Direction: underperform; horizon 1M; confidence low; made on 2026-11-04 (call C-2026-11-04-credit).

The softening is not reversing and the debt-ceiling fight is unresolved. (High yield (HYG) vs IG corporate (LQD), CNBC (article))

What would prove it wrong:

  • High yield beats IG over 1W

Track record for this asset: no closed calls yet. All calls and results

4. Why it is continuing or turning

The 1M softening in high yield is mostly residual to the shared forces; coverage of heavy AI-related borrowing fits it, while money growth keeps the longer-run backdrop calm.

Today's review: reaffirmed. High yield beat IG on the day as the VIX fell, but it still trails over 1W and 1M. Confidence: medium. Credit held up through the AI slump, but high yield has trailed IG for a month.

Basis: credit_risk_appetite over 1M; -1.4 sd observed, +0.0 sd from the shared forces, -1.4 sd asset-specific.

5. Are the driving forces changing?

6. Speed

accelerating (computed from the pace of change per trading day). High yield fell 0.1 pp behind IG in a week and 1.7 pp in a month; the gap is small on every horizon.

7. Tailwinds and headwinds

Reasoning

Mechanism: money growth keeps funding plentiful → credit spreads stay contained → high yield slips at the margin as volatility rises

Key assumptions:

  • High yield gains over 1M: holding

Dollar and volatility intact

1. Where we are

The dollar is firm on Fed rate-increase pricing: UUP is up 6.4% over 1Y and sits 0.5% below its 5-year high. State: intact (since 2025-11-04). UUP is 0.5% below its 5-year high; its 90-day change is +2.9%.

2. How we got here

Month by month: what drove each month.

3. Direction of travel (not a forecast)

The dollar is up over 3M, 6M and 1Y but slipped 0.2% over 1M and was flat over 1W; the pace is decelerating.

Upcoming events that bear on this:

  • 2026-12-09: FOMC decision (Federal Reserve calendar)

3b. Where we're heading (our call)

No open call. Track record for this asset: no closed calls yet. All calls

4. Why it is continuing or turning

Over 1Y hawkish Fed repricing and higher real yields support the dollar; on the day it slipped as gold rose and risk appetite returned.

Today's review: weakened. The dollar slipped 0.55%, turning its 1M change to −0.2%, so the contradiction test appeared. Confidence: medium. The 1Y rise is intact, but the dollar slipped over 1M.

Basis: dollar over 6M; +1.6 sd observed, +1.5 sd from the shared forces, +0.1 sd asset-specific.

5. Are the driving forces changing?

6. Speed

decelerating (computed from the pace of change per trading day). UUP is up 6.4% over 1Y and 3.2% over 3M but down 0.2% over 1M.

7. Tailwinds and headwinds

  • Tailwind: Dollar: Fed rate-increase pricing (force: Hawkish Fed repricing, impact +0.8 sd) (Dollar (UUP ETF))
  • Tailwind: Dollar: higher real yields (force: Real-yield shock, impact +0.4 sd) (10Y real yield (Treasury))

Reasoning

Mechanism: markets price Fed rate increases → US real yields are higher than abroad → the dollar gains over 1Y

Key assumptions:

  • The dollar is up over 1Y: holding

Not investment advice. MarketMoves describes past market data and reported news for general information. Figures can be delayed or wrong; check the original source before relying on them.