Market moves: Friday, November 6, 2026
Close of Friday, November 6, 2026: S&P 500 (SPY) +0.31%; US 10Y 4.86% (+2 bp on the day); VIX (Cboe) 25.64 (−9.01% on the day); Dollar (UUP ETF) +0.73%; Gold (GLD ETF) −0.79%; Bitcoin (USD) −0.31%. Largest 1D move in the table: VIX (Cboe) −9.01%.
Today (1D): Chips bounced and the jobs report revived Fed increase pricing
AI spending doubts, the regime force, still set the two-day picture: semis trail the market by 3.9 pp over 2D despite the day's rebound. The day added a strong jobs report that lifted Kalshi odds of a December increase to 74.8%.
The S&P 500 (SPY) rose 0.31% and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 1.40%, while the VIX fell 9.01% to 25.64. Semis (SMH) rebounded 3.62% after Thursday's rout, helped by Lam Research's buyback.
October payrolls beat estimates and unemployment slipped. The 2Y yield rose 5 bp and the dollar (UUP) 0.73% to a 5-year high, while Kalshi odds of a December Fed increase rose 9.2 pp.
No clear transmission channel on the day: the leading candidate has 4 of 8 signals for but its core is not met, as the AI leaders and SMH beat the equal-weight index by 2.51 pp. Staples (XLP) fell 1.28%.
Drivers
- October payrolls beat estimates and unemployment slipped, so Fed officials weighed a December increase. Source: CNBC (article), Reuters, 2026-11-06
- Lam Research announced a buyback and chip stocks rebounded. Source: TradingView (article), MarketWatch, 2026-11-06
Underlying forces
| Force | 1Y | 6M | 3M | 1M | 1W | 2 days | Short-run trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI capex / profitability doubts | mild | mild | strong | moderate | moderate | building (since 2026-11-04) | |
| Oil supply shock | moderate | fading | |||||
| Hawkish Fed repricing | mild | mild | fading | ||||
| Rotation from bonds to stocks | mild | fading | |||||
| Liquidity expansion | mild | mild | fading | ||||
| Real-yield shock | mild | mild | fading | ||||
| Inflation pressure easing | mild | fading | |||||
| Recession / growth fear | mild | fading | |||||
| De-risking to cash | mild | fading | |||||
| Share of moves explained | 35% | 40% | 39% | 41% | 22% | 27% |
Evidence for and against
What each force means
- AI capex / profitability doubts: Investors doubt the payoff of AI spending: AI leaders and semis lag, defensives and the average stock gain relative ground.
- Oil supply shock: A supply disruption lifts crude: oil and commodities rise, breakevens climb, consumers lag.
- Hawkish Fed repricing: Markets price more Fed rate increases: the 2Y leads yields higher, the curve flattens, the dollar firms and long-duration assets lag.
- Rotation from bonds to stocks: Money moves from bonds into equities: stocks beat bonds, yields rise and trading shifts toward equity ETFs.
- Liquidity expansion: Central banks and the Treasury add money to the system (asset purchases, a falling TGA or reverse repo balance): net liquidity rises, financial conditions loosen, risk assets rise broadly and speculative, long-duration assets rise most while the dollar softens.
- Real-yield shock: Real yields jump: long-duration assets, gold and growth stocks fall behind, the dollar firms.
- Inflation pressure easing: Inflation compensation falls: breakevens and nominal yields ease, commodities soften, long duration gains.
- Recession / growth fear: Investors price weaker growth: cyclicals, small caps, copper and oil fall behind, credit weakens and long yields fall.
- De-risking to cash: Investors move money out of equities and other risk assets and park it in cash: money market fund assets jump, stocks fall, volatility and the dollar rise, credit weakens. Consistent with money moving from equities to cash.
Status quo board
- US stocks: Value and dividend payers lead growth: SCHD is up 37.2% over 1Y against 7.8% for QQQ, a lead that narrowed to 1.0 pp in June and was regained, with 88% of it in the last month. intact
- Sectors: Defensive sectors are favoured over tech: tech (XLK) trails defensives by 26.9 pp over 1M, while health care and staples sit 2.6% and 2.0% below their 5-year highs. intact
- AI and style themes: Semis have lost their lead: they trail the market by 21.0 pp over 1M and 14.7 pp over 3M, and the lag is re-accelerating after a 1Y lead that peaked at 79.1 pp in June round-tripped to 21.7 pp. intact
- AI leaders and QQQ: The AI platform leaders lag the market again: the basket trails by 8.1 pp over 6M and 7.5 pp over 1M, after the 6M lag narrowed to a 0.1 pp lead on October 7; all of it came in the last month. intact
- Foreign markets: Emerging markets lag the US: EEM trails the S&P 500 by 7.5 pp over 1M and 12.4 pp over 6M, reversing a 6M lead of 4.3 pp in June; 59% of the 6M gap came in the last month. intact
- Crypto: Crypto is out of favour: bitcoin is 39.3% below its 5-year high and down 25.2% over 1Y. intact
- Commodities: Oil is priced for a war-driven supply shock: WTI front-month futures are up 51.9% over 1Y (as of 2026-11-05). shifting. Challenger: Crude is losing its war premium: Brent fell 14.4% over the week and 2.0% over 1M (as of 2026-11-05), and energy (XLE) lost 12.0% in November so far.
- Rates: Higher for longer: the market prices more Fed increases, with the 2Y up 94 bp over 1Y and Kalshi odds of 74.8% for a December increase. challenged. Challenger: Long yields are falling: the 10Y is down 41 bp over 1M and 8 bp over the week, and the real yield is down 28 bp over 1M.
- Credit: Credit is calm but softening: high yield trails IG by 2.3 pp over 1M, while regional banks have regained their lead, beating the market by 8.7 pp. intact
- Dollar and volatility: The dollar is firm on Fed rate-increase pricing: UUP is up 6.9% over 1Y and reached a new 5-year high on the day. intact
Asset table: monthly change
Each cell is the change during that calendar month (month to date for the current month).
| Asset | Last | Monthly change: % for prices; rate rows pp, spread rows bp | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov MTD | Oct | Sep | Aug | Jul | Jun | May | Apr | Mar | Feb | Jan | Dec | Nov 25 | ||
| Us Equity status quo intact 1D to 1Y | ||||||||||||||
| S&P 500 (SPY)12-month story | 735.29 | −2.7 | −0.9 | −0.3 | +2.7 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +5.3 | +10.5 | −4.9 | −0.9 | +1.5 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)12-month story | 656.10 | −5.0 | −6.7 | +3.3 | +4.2 | −6.6 | −0.1 | +10.6 | +15.7 | −4.8 | −2.3 | +1.2 | −0.7 | −1.6 |
| Dividend (SCHD)12-month story | 35.17 | −1.7 | +10.0 | −6.0 | +4.2 | +5.6 | −1.7 | +1.3 | +4.5 | −2.6 | +6.5 | +8.7 | +0.4 | +3.1 |
| Dow (DIA ETF)12-month story | 512.22 | −0.9 | +1.7 | −4.1 | +1.5 | +0.4 | +2.6 | +2.9 | +7.3 | −5.2 | +0.3 | +1.8 | +0.9 | +0.4 |
| Russell 2000 (IWM ETF)12-month story | 273.67 | −2.0 | +0.5 | −5.2 | +0.9 | −3.1 | +3.7 | +4.5 | +12.1 | −5.0 | +0.7 | +5.5 | −0.7 | +1.0 |
| Sectors status quo intact 1D to 1Y | ||||||||||||||
| Tech (XLK)12-month story | 164.74 | −8.2 | −8.3 | +5.1 | +6.4 | −8.0 | −0.1 | +19.8 | +20.0 | −4.1 | −3.6 | −0.1 | +0.8 | −4.8 |
| Health care (XLV)12-month story | 184.80 | 0.0 | +9.8 | −0.9 | +4.9 | +2.5 | +6.6 | +2.4 | −0.4 | −8.1 | +3.5 | 0.0 | −1.4 | +9.3 |
| Financials (XLF)12-month story | 57.16 | +1.2 | +5.8 | −7.1 | +1.4 | +6.2 | +4.3 | −1.1 | +5.6 | −3.5 | −3.8 | −2.4 | +3.1 | +1.8 |
| Energy (XLE)12-month story | 61.62 | −12.0 | +13.9 | −3.3 | +7.4 | +12.1 | −5.0 | −5.6 | −2.6 | +10.3 | +9.5 | +14.2 | −0.3 | +2.6 |
| Staples (XLP)12-month story | 90.08 | +0.7 | +10.9 | −4.5 | −0.1 | +2.4 | +0.9 | −1.7 | +2.8 | −8.4 | +7.8 | +7.5 | −1.3 | +4.1 |
| Discretionary (XLY)12-month story | 117.58 | +1.9 | +6.0 | −6.4 | +0.4 | −1.0 | −2.8 | +2.1 | +8.6 | −6.6 | −3.6 | +1.5 | +1.2 | −1.4 |
| Utilities (XLU)12-month story | 43.13 | −0.7 | +10.1 | −5.9 | −4.8 | −2.2 | +2.7 | −5.2 | +2.1 | −3.2 | +10.4 | +1.3 | −5.1 | +1.7 |
| Materials (XLB)12-month story | 51.95 | −1.5 | +8.3 | −7.1 | +4.5 | −0.8 | −0.3 | −0.6 | +3.0 | −6.0 | +8.4 | +8.6 | +2.0 | +4.4 |
| Real estate (XLRE)12-month story | 44.00 | +1.9 | +5.5 | −6.5 | −2.1 | +2.4 | +1.0 | −0.9 | +8.7 | −6.2 | +5.8 | +2.7 | −2.1 | +1.9 |
| Communication (XLC)12-month story | 104.79 | +4.9 | −10.0 | −0.1 | +3.0 | +1.0 | −7.2 | −0.7 | +5.1 | −5.8 | −1.7 | +2.0 | +2.3 | +0.5 |
| Industrials (XLI)12-month story | 162.67 | −2.8 | +0.3 | −4.4 | −2.6 | −2.9 | +7.3 | −0.8 | +7.9 | −8.4 | +7.1 | +6.7 | +1.3 | −0.9 |
| Themes status quo intact 1D to 1Y | ||||||||||||||
| Semiconductors (SMH)12-month story | 463.96 | −11.2 | −14.2 | +9.4 | +3.0 | −17.6 | +9.5 | +18.2 | +32.2 | −5.7 | +0.7 | +12.0 | +2.5 | −3.0 |
| Software (IGV)12-month story | 98.88 | −5.2 | −2.1 | −3.2 | +16.3 | +4.4 | −10.9 | +21.2 | +4.8 | −1.9 | −9.7 | −14.6 | +1.5 | −9.9 |
| AI leaders basket (6 stocks, equal weight)12-month story | 7,469.20 | −1.4 | −8.9 | +3.8 | +1.5 | +7.1 | −10.7 | +4.8 | +21.2 | −5.0 | −7.9 | +1.3 | −1.9 | 0.0 |
| Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP)12-month story | 216.05 | −1.0 | +4.9 | −4.8 | +2.0 | +1.1 | +2.3 | +2.6 | +6.0 | −6.0 | +3.5 | +3.4 | +0.4 | +1.9 |
| Value (IWD)12-month story | 257.45 | −0.5 | +4.3 | −3.1 | +2.0 | +3.9 | +2.2 | +2.9 | +8.2 | −4.9 | +2.6 | +4.5 | +0.7 | +2.6 |
| Growth (IWF)12-month story | 111.75 | −5.0 | −6.1 | +2.2 | +3.7 | −4.7 | −2.8 | +7.2 | +11.9 | −5.2 | −3.4 | −1.6 | −0.6 | −1.9 |
| Foreign status quo intact 1D to 1Y | ||||||||||||||
| Developed ex-US (EFA)12-month story | 101.89 | −1.4 | −0.5 | −3.3 | +1.8 | +1.6 | +0.7 | +2.4 | +5.3 | −7.8 | +4.6 | +4.9 | +2.7 | +0.7 |
| Developed (VEA)12-month story | 67.90 | −2.2 | −1.7 | −2.9 | +3.3 | −0.9 | −0.2 | +4.3 | +7.4 | −8.6 | +6.1 | +6.0 | +3.2 | +1.0 |
| Emerging (EEM)12-month story | 59.33 | −2.8 | −8.6 | −0.3 | +4.6 | −6.3 | +0.2 | +7.2 | +12.7 | −9.3 | +5.9 | +8.0 | +2.2 | −1.8 |
| Emerging (VWO)12-month story | 55.29 | −0.4 | −6.4 | −1.8 | +3.0 | −1.6 | −0.2 | +1.6 | +9.0 | −7.0 | +2.9 | +5.0 | +0.9 | −1.2 |
| Japan (EWJ)12-month story | 88.26 | −5.0 | −4.7 | +1.6 | +3.8 | −0.9 | +0.9 | +4.3 | +5.5 | −8.6 | +7.8 | +6.2 | +0.9 | −0.5 |
| China large-cap (FXI)12-month story | 34.95 | +5.7 | −2.8 | −3.8 | −3.1 | +15.5 | −9.2 | −4.7 | +2.5 | −3.7 | −5.9 | +3.4 | −2.1 | −0.5 |
| Germany (EWG)12-month story | 41.58 | −0.7 | +1.4 | −6.6 | +3.2 | +3.6 | −2.9 | +2.8 | +6.5 | −10.5 | +2.9 | +1.4 | +3.9 | +0.5 |
| Crypto status quo intact 1D to 1Y | ||||||||||||||
| Bitcoin (USD)12-month story | 75,731 | −2.2 | −7.3 | +6.4 | +25.0 | +7.4 | −20.5 | −3.6 | +11.8 | +1.9 | −14.9 | −10.1 | −3.2 | −17.5 |
| Ethereum (USD)12-month story | 2,235.37 | −0.8 | −16.1 | +8.8 | +32.6 | +18.6 | −21.7 | −11.2 | +7.3 | +7.1 | −19.8 | −17.4 | −0.8 | −22.2 |
| Commodity status quo shifting 1D to 1Y | ||||||||||||||
| Gold (GLD ETF)12-month story | 372.52 | +4.7 | −6.6 | −6.8 | +9.9 | +0.9 | −11.7 | −1.5 | −1.5 | −11.1 | +8.7 | +12.3 | +2.2 | +5.4 |
| Silver (SLV ETF)12-month story | 46.87 | +5.1 | −18.2 | −9.3 | +14.8 | −2.1 | −21.7 | +2.5 | −2.2 | −19.8 | +12.7 | +17.1 | +25.8 | +16.4 |
| WTI crude (front-month futures)as of 2026-11-0512-month story | 90.52 | −13.1 | +15.2 | +5.4 | +1.3 | +21.8 | −20.4 | −16.9 | +3.6 | +51.3 | +2.8 | +13.6 | −1.9 | −4.0 |
| Brent crude (front-month futures)as of 2026-11-0512-month story | 98.29 | −16.4 | +13.6 | +14.4 | +0.4 | +23.6 | −20.8 | −19.3 | −3.7 | +63.3 | +2.5 | +16.2 | −3.7 | −2.9 |
| Copper (CPER ETF)12-month story | 37.67 | −3.4 | −2.0 | −0.5 | +1.1 | +4.9 | −2.9 | +6.4 | +6.1 | −6.6 | +1.2 | +4.2 | +8.3 | +2.4 |
| Rates status quo challenged 1D to 1Y | ||||||||||||||
| US 3M bill (Δ level, pp)12-month story | 4.19% | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.29 | +0.08 | −0.04 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.21 | −0.01 |
| US 2Y (Δ level, pp)12-month story | 4.51% | −0.05 | −0.32 | +0.54 | +0.06 | +0.14 | +0.16 | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.41 | −0.14 | +0.05 | 0.00 | −0.13 |
| US 10Y (Δ level, pp)12-month story | 4.86% | −0.08 | −0.35 | +0.54 | 0.00 | +0.31 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.10 | +0.33 | −0.29 | +0.08 | +0.16 | −0.09 |
| US 20Y (Δ level, pp)12-month story | 5.29% | −0.05 | −0.34 | +0.44 | −0.04 | +0.35 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.09 | +0.31 | −0.25 | +0.03 | +0.17 | −0.03 |
| US 30Y (Δ level, pp)12-month story | 5.26% | −0.05 | −0.33 | +0.39 | −0.02 | +0.36 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.10 | +0.24 | −0.23 | +0.03 | +0.17 | 0.00 |
| 2s10s spread (Δ level, bp)12-month story | +35 bp | −3 | −3 | 0 | −6 | +17 | −17 | −5 | +1 | −8 | −15 | +3 | +16 | +4 |
| 30Y mortgage (weekly, published Thursdays) (Δ level, pp)12-month story | 7.18% | −0.06 | +0.21 | +0.37 | 0.00 | +0.17 | −0.04 | +0.23 | −0.08 | +0.40 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.06 |
| Credit status quo intact 1D to 1Y | ||||||||||||||
| IG corporate (LQD)12-month story | 104.53 | +0.6 | +2.5 | −3.4 | +0.4 | −2.2 | +0.1 | +0.9 | +0.3 | −2.1 | +1.4 | +0.3 | −0.7 | +0.9 |
| High yield (HYG)12-month story | 77.23 | +0.3 | +0.7 | −2.7 | +0.9 | −0.2 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +1.5 | −1.0 | 0.0 | +0.6 | +0.5 | +0.7 |
| EM dollar debt (EMB)12-month story | 91.96 | +0.3 | +1.8 | −3.7 | +0.6 | −1.4 | +0.4 | +1.1 | +2.5 | −3.5 | +1.6 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.5 |
| Alts 1D to 1Y | ||||||||||||||
| Managed futures (CTA)12-month story | 26.77 | −10.6 | +4.3 | +2.5 | +4.7 | +5.1 | −9.7 | −10.3 | +7.6 | +0.4 | +8.3 | +3.3 | +0.2 | +0.7 |
| FX / Vol status quo intact 1D to 1Y | ||||||||||||||
| Dollar (UUP ETF)new 5y high12-month story | 29.13 | +0.4 | +0.8 | +2.3 | −0.2 | −0.8 | +2.7 | +1.1 | −1.5 | +2.6 | +0.9 | −0.7 | −0.9 | 0.0 |
| USD/JPY12-month story | 158.45 | +0.6 | +0.1 | −1.5 | +1.4 | −3.1 | +2.1 | +1.7 | −1.3 | +1.7 | +0.8 | −1.2 | +0.3 | +1.4 |
| USD/MXN12-month story | 18.6070 | −0.9 | +3.9 | +6.4 | −2.0 | −0.9 | +0.8 | −0.7 | −2.6 | +4.2 | −1.4 | −3.1 | −1.6 | −1.4 |
| VIX (Cboe)12-month story | 25.64 | +32.0 | +18.8 | +9.5 | −6.7 | −2.8 | +7.4 | −9.3 | −33.1 | +27.1 | +13.9 | +16.7 | −8.6 | −6.2 |
| Stress 1D to 1Y | ||||||||||||||
| TIPS (TIP)12-month story | 106.27 | −0.2 | +2.5 | −2.6 | 0.0 | −0.7 | −0.5 | +0.2 | +1.1 | −1.4 | +1.3 | +0.5 | −0.6 | +0.2 |
| Long zero-coupon (ZROZ)12-month story | 59.04 | +1.1 | +9.4 | −8.3 | +1.2 | −8.2 | +2.4 | +0.8 | −1.7 | −6.3 | +7.3 | −0.9 | −4.7 | −0.5 |
| T-bill ETF (SGOV)new 5y high12-month story | 100.49 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Commodities (DBC)12-month story | 31.54 | −6.2 | +4.0 | +3.3 | +6.3 | +10.5 | −9.6 | −5.2 | +7.4 | +15.3 | +2.7 | +9.3 | +0.2 | +0.8 |
| KRE/SPY ratio12-month story | 0.0982 | +3.0 | +4.6 | −4.7 | −5.8 | +1.6 | +9.3 | −5.3 | −3.0 | +3.2 | −2.1 | +4.6 | +3.5 | +4.8 |
| SOFR (NY Fed, published next day) (Δ level, pp)as of 2026-11-0512-month story | 3.92% | −0.03 | +0.05 | +0.22 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.19 | −0.25 | −0.10 |
This week (1W): Election week: an AI rout and an oil unwind
Over the week AI spending doubts, the regime force, drove the moves: semis trailed the market by 8.5 pp and value beat growth by 4.5 pp. Oil's war premium unwound alongside, a residual the shared forces leave unexplained.
Semis (SMH) lost 11.2% and tech (XLK) 8.2%, while communication (XLC) rose 4.9% and the VIX 32.0%. Energy (XLE) fell 12.0% and Brent 14.4% (as of 2026-11-05) on hopes of a quicker end to the Iran war.
Over the week there is no clear transmission channel: the leading candidate has 6 of 8 signals for and none against, though its core is not met. Gold rose 4.71%, and CNN's Fear & Greed Index sits at 22, extreme fear.
The money-rotation reading shows no clear rotation over 1W; the best candidate, equities to bonds, has 2 of 7 signals confirming and 2 against.
Drivers
- Coverage tied the AI rout to Democratic wins in data-centre states. Source: CNBC (article), TradingView (article)
- Coverage reported fresh signs of an oil glut as high prices curb demand. Source: Reuters, 2026-11-06, Reuters, 2026-11-06
One month (1M): AI doubts put defensives far ahead of tech
Over the month AI spending doubts, the regime force now strengthening, pulled tech 26.9 pp behind defensives and semis 21.0 pp behind the market, while the equal-weight index beat the cap-weighted one by 7.4 pp.
Health care (XLV) rose 10.6% and staples (XLP) 10.1% over the month, while the AI leaders basket fell 13.2% and semis 26.6%. Value beat growth by 15.8 pp.
Rates do not explain it: the 10Y fell 41 bp and the real yield 28 bp, which usually favours long-duration growth, yet growth lagged. The money-rotation reading shows no clear rotation over 1M; the best candidate, equities to bonds, has 3 of 7 signals confirming.
Drivers
- Coverage reported Microsoft winding down an Oracle computing lease and OpenAI discussing a reset of data-centre plans. Source: TradingView (article), MarketWatch, 2026-11-06
Three months (3M): AI doubts lead the quarter as growth fears join
Over three months AI spending doubts are the main force, and a recession-fear force turned active today: cyclicals trail defensives by 9.7 pp and the VIX is up 69.2%. The fit also finds a small liquidity-expansion effect.
Semis trail the market by 14.7 pp and value leads growth by 10.3 pp, with more than all of both gaps built in the last month. WTI futures are up 20.3% over three months (as of 2026-11-05) and commodities (DBC) 9.3%.
The S&P 500's 90-day change is −4.7%, down from +1.4% at the end of October, and the VIX's is +72.1%. Net liquidity was flat over 3M (+$32 bn), so it does not explain the drop.
Drivers
- CNBC flagged long-term unemployment at its highest outside the pandemic in a decade. Source: CNBC (article), CNBC, 2026-11-06
- Coverage called a prolonged Iran war the market's real black swan. Source: MarketWatch, 2026-11-05
Six months (6M): Rate-increase pricing and AI doubts rewarded value
Over six months hawkish Fed repricing and the real-yield shock rewarded value over growth, and AI doubts added to it. Value's lead round-tripped: it narrowed to 2.3 pp in early October before surging.
Value beat growth by 19.1 pp over six months, but 87% of that came in the last month after the lead narrowed from 13.5 pp in July to 2.3 pp in early October. The 10Y real yield is up 69 bp and the 2Y yield 64 bp.
The AI leaders basket trails the market by 8.1 pp, a lag that narrowed into a small lead in early October and was rebuilt in the last month. Easing inflation pressure pulled the breakeven down 19 bp, and global central-bank liquidity fell 4.7%.
Drivers
- Fed officials weighed a December increase after the strong jobs report. Source: Reuters, 2026-11-06, CNBC (article)
- CPI inflation runs at 3.7% year over year. Source: MarketMoves data
One year (1Y): Oil and a Fed seen raising rates set the year
Over the year the oil supply shock and hawkish Fed repricing set the regime, lifting crude and short yields and rewarding value; value's lead narrowed mid-year and re-accelerated in the last month.
WTI futures are up 51.9% over the year (as of 2026-11-05) and the 2Y yield 94 bp. SCHD rose 37.2% against 7.8% for QQQ, but the lead narrowed to 1.0 pp in June, and 88% of it came in the last month.
Semis still lead the market by 21.7 pp over the year, down from a peak of 79.1 pp in June, so most of the year's chip gain has round-tripped. Bitcoin fell 25.2%. M2 grew 5.71% year over year.
Drivers
- Energy (XLE) is up 43.6% over the year. Source: MarketMoves data
- Coverage called a prolonged Iran war the market's real black swan. Source: MarketWatch, 2026-11-05
Cross-asset read: The dollar hit a 5-year high as Fed odds rose
Across assets AI spending doubts, the 2D regime force, still mark the two days, but the day's cross-asset moves followed the jobs report: the dollar rose to a 5-year high and short yields climbed, while gold slipped.
The dollar (UUP) rose 0.73% and USD/JPY 0.50%, while gold (GLD) fell 0.79% and the 2Y yield rose 5 bp. Emerging markets (EEM) rose 2.20% with chips, while Germany (EWG) fell 2.74%.
Polymarket odds of a December Fed increase rose to 76.5% from 65.5%, and Kalshi odds put it at 74.8%; the Kalshi-implied upper bound after the December meeting is 4.19%.
Drivers
- Asian chipmakers tumbled before the US rebound, with Korea and Japan down sharply. Source: TradingView (article), Reuters, 2026-11-06
Credit and stress watch: Credit softened at the margin; banks held up
Credit is softening, not breaking: high yield trailed IG by 2.3 pp over the month, more than the shared forces explain, while regional banks beat the market by 8.7 pp.
HYG fell 0.06% and LQD 0.12% on the day, and the VIX eased to 25.64. SOFR printed 3.92% (as of 2026-11-05), 2 bp above IORB.
Managed futures (CTA) are down 10.6% over the week as trend positions in oil and chips reversed. Coverage flagged costlier borrowing for AI data-centre builders such as CoreWeave.
Drivers
- CoreWeave's borrowing costs rose as the AI build-out leans on debt. Source: CNBC, 2026-11-06, MarketWatch, 2026-11-06
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